本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于混沌理論的沈陽普通商品住宅價格研究　出處：《沈陽建筑大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn)市場 混沌理論 BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò) 房價預(yù)測

【摘要】：隨著我國房地產(chǎn)市場商品化的發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)突飛猛進,為人民的生活提供了應(yīng)有的保障。房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展到了今天,已經(jīng)成為中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的源泉,成為了所有領(lǐng)域研究與發(fā)展的核心。因此,產(chǎn)生了大量的房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)專業(yè)的學者在房地產(chǎn)市場領(lǐng)域從事調(diào)研和研究工作,每一位學者都想盡自己的一份力為房地產(chǎn)市場把把脈,解決房地產(chǎn)市場中存在的復雜問題。混沌理論自從發(fā)現(xiàn)以來一直在不停地改變著世界,使得之前很多復雜無序的現(xiàn)象開始變得有章可循、有理可依,所以利用動力學中的混沌理論來研究各個領(lǐng)域都是一種方法和手段的提升,都會為該行業(yè)的規(guī)范和發(fā)展做出貢獻。特別是對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),對我國的房地產(chǎn)市場進行混沌研究,將為這個復雜多變又如此重要的行業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深遠的影響。本文首先通過房地產(chǎn)價格構(gòu)成及影響因素加以探討、分析,研究房價的波動中的合理與非合理因素,并且結(jié)合混沌原理,求出房地產(chǎn)市場價格時間序列的混沌吸引子,證明房地產(chǎn)市場的混沌性特征。其次,對房價預(yù)測方法加以介紹和對比,分析各種方法的優(yōu)缺點,最終選擇BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型應(yīng)用在沈陽市普通商品房住宅價格時間序列之中。選取matlab軟件進行數(shù)據(jù)的處理與模型的編制工作,通過matlab首先對選取出來影響房地產(chǎn)市場的重要因素的數(shù)據(jù)進行歸一化處理,再建立了一個含有一個輸入層、一個隱藏層、一個輸出層的三層的簡單的BP人工神經(jīng)預(yù)測模型,帶入數(shù)據(jù),經(jīng)過其特有的“學習”與“訓練”過程得出處理后的數(shù)據(jù)以及擬合的圖形。最后應(yīng)用模型對沈陽市普通商品房住宅市場價格進行模型仿真,求出模型預(yù)測精度,并且與其他模型加以對比,說明在預(yù)測房間方面該模型在精度與可操作性方面的優(yōu)勢。再此基礎(chǔ)之上,應(yīng)用模型對沈陽市普通商品住宅價格進行短期預(yù)測,得出預(yù)測值,希望對沈陽市房價的走勢與控制起到一定的作用,為今后該領(lǐng)域?qū)W者應(yīng)用模型及繼續(xù)研究做好鋪墊工作。最終對本文研究中可能存在的問題以及該課題的繼續(xù)研究工作給出建議與意見。
[Abstract]:With the development of commoditization of real estate market in our country, the real estate industry is advancing by leaps and bounds, which provides the guarantee for the people's life. The real estate market has become the headspring of China's economic development today. Has become the core of all fields of research and development. Therefore, there are a large number of real estate related professionals engaged in research and research in the real estate market. Every scholar wants to do his part to help the real estate market to solve the complex problems existing in the real estate market. Chaos theory has been changing the world since it was discovered. It makes a lot of complex and disordered phenomena become rule-based and rational, so using chaos theory in dynamics to study each field is a method and means to improve. All will contribute to the standardization and development of the industry, especially for the real estate industry, the real estate market in China for chaotic research. This paper will have a profound impact on the development of this complex and such an important industry. Firstly, this paper discusses the composition of real estate price and its influencing factors, and analyzes the reasonable and unreasonable factors in the fluctuation of house price. And based on the chaos principle, the chaotic attractor of the real estate market price time series is obtained to prove the chaotic characteristics of the real estate market. Secondly, the method of house price prediction is introduced and compared. The advantages and disadvantages of various methods are analyzed. Finally, the BP neural network prediction model is selected to be applied in the time series of housing prices in Shenyang. The matlab software is selected to process the data and compile the model. Through matlab, we first normalize the data of the important factors that affect the real estate market, and then establish a hidden layer and an input layer. A simple BP artificial neural prediction model with three layers of output layer is brought into the data. Through its unique "learning" and "training" process to get the processed data and fitting figure. Finally, the model is used to simulate the market price of ordinary commercial housing in Shenyang, and the prediction accuracy of the model is obtained. And compared with other models, the model in the prediction of rooms in the accuracy and maneuverability of the advantages of the model. On the basis of this, the application of the model to Shenyang ordinary commodity housing prices short-term prediction. The prediction value is expected to play a certain role in the trend and control of housing prices in Shenyang. Finally, some suggestions and suggestions are given on the problems that may exist in this study and the continuing research work of this subject.
【學位授予單位】：沈陽建筑大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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