本文關(guān)鍵詞：貨幣政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)區(qū)域市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的影響差異研究　出處：《湖南科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，如何促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)健發(fā)展受到了社會(huì)各界的普遍關(guān)注。作為資本密集型行業(yè)的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)，貨幣政策在對(duì)其有效調(diào)控中發(fā)揮了重要作用。然而，作為一個(gè)地域廣闊、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展極度不均衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家，我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展存在一定區(qū)域差異。在探討貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的過(guò)程中，考慮貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的區(qū)域差異性是十分必要的。通過(guò)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的查閱發(fā)現(xiàn)許多學(xué)者對(duì)貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的研究是以貨幣政策與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)之間的相互關(guān)系為研究對(duì)象，沒(méi)有考慮到房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在顯著的異質(zhì)性。同時(shí)，部分研究主要是從貨幣政策影響區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)差異的視角反映是否存在區(qū)域效應(yīng)，沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步深入到房地產(chǎn)需求和供給層面來(lái)研究貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的區(qū)域差異性。因而，本文以供給、需求與價(jià)格為視角，在以往學(xué)者的研究基礎(chǔ)上，從貨幣政策有效性理論、最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論以及貨幣政策非對(duì)稱(chēng)性理論等經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)經(jīng)典理論出發(fā)，對(duì)貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)區(qū)域市場(chǎng)發(fā)展進(jìn)行理論分析。并且選取全國(guó)35個(gè)大中城市1999年至2012年的數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本，運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型、誤差修正模型以及VAR模型和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)對(duì)貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)區(qū)域差異進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。 本文研究結(jié)果表明：我國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)不同地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)需求、供給以及價(jià)格產(chǎn)生了不同程度的影響，支持了我國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的影響具有區(qū)域差異性。在需求方面，數(shù)量型的貨幣政策工具對(duì)中西部的長(zhǎng)期影響大于東部地區(qū)，中部地區(qū)相對(duì)于東部和西部地區(qū)在短期內(nèi)對(duì)貸款余額的反映較為明顯。在供給方面，金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款余額對(duì)東、中部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)供給的長(zhǎng)期影響大于西部地區(qū)，而貨幣供給量(M2)對(duì)中西部地區(qū)的長(zhǎng)期影響要大于東部地區(qū)。在短期內(nèi)，貨幣供給量的變動(dòng)與各個(gè)地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)供給量同方向變化，但對(duì)東部的影響要明顯大于中西部地區(qū)。在價(jià)格方面，東部地區(qū)的房屋價(jià)格指數(shù)對(duì)貸款余額的沖擊所帶來(lái)的響應(yīng)要明顯強(qiáng)于中西部地區(qū)所受到的沖擊。同時(shí)，東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格受到利率的影響也要大于中西部地區(qū)。此外，貨幣供給量對(duì)東部、西部地區(qū)受到的影響大于中部地區(qū)，貨幣供給量的增加促進(jìn)了房地產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大以及房地產(chǎn)消費(fèi)的增加，進(jìn)而引起了房?jī)r(jià)的大幅上漲。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the real estate market, real estate prices continue to rise, how to promote the healthy development of the real estate market has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life. As the capital intensive real estate industry, monetary policy on its effective control has played an important role. However, as a vast, regional economy imbalance of economic development in developing countries, there are some regional differences in the development of China's real estate market. In the process of monetary policy affects the real estate market development, considering the regional difference of monetary policy affects the real estate market development is very necessary. By reviewing the relevant literature research found that the development of the real estate market impact scholars of the monetary policy is the relationship between the monetary policy and the real estate market as the research object, without taking into account the real estate market has significant Heterogeneity. At the same time, some researches are mainly from the impact of monetary policy changes in the regional real estate prices reflect whether there are differences in perspective of regional effect, no further to the real estate supply and demand level to study the effect of monetary policy on regional differences in the real estate market. Because of this, in order to supply, demand and price in perspective. The basis of previous researches, from the theory of the effectiveness of monetary policy, based on the theory of optimum currency area and monetary policy asymmetry theory and classical theory of economics, on the impact of monetary policy regional real estate market development were analyzed. And the selection of the national 35 large and medium-sized city from 1999 to 2012 as the sample data, using panel data model model, and VAR model and impulse response function of the regional real estate market differences in the effects of monetary policy makes an empirical research on the error correction.
The results of this study show that China's monetary policy on the real estate market demand in different regions, the influence of supply and price support, influence the development of China's monetary policy on the real estate market has regional difference. On the demand side, a number of long-term impact type monetary policy tools in the Midwest than the East in the central region relative to the eastern and western regions in the short term loans to reflect the more obvious. In the aspect of supply, loan balance of financial institutions in the east central region, the long-term impact of real estate supply than the western region, and the money supply (M2) on the long-term impact of the Midwest is greater than the eastern region. In the short term the change in the same direction, change and all areas of the real estate supply of money supply, but the effect is significantly greater than that of the eastern part of the Midwest. In terms of price, Eastern In response to the impact area housing price index for the loans brought to be significantly stronger than the central and western regions the impact on real estate prices. At the same time, the eastern region is the impact of interest rates is greater than the central and western regions. In addition, the money supply to the East, the western region is greater than the central region, the increase of money supply to expand the scale of real estate investment and increase the consumption of real estate, which caused a sharp rise in prices.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.0;F299.23

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