本文關鍵詞：基于RS-BPNN的房地產(chǎn)項目前期投資風險評價研究　出處：《河北工程大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為關系我國國計民生的基礎性行業(yè)之一，具有建設時間長、影響因素多、投資金額大、回報率高、涉及范圍廣等特點，，這就決定了房地產(chǎn)投資過程的復雜性和風險性。房地產(chǎn)風險是客觀存在的，它貫穿于房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)活動的每一環(huán)節(jié)，其中前期階段未知因素最多，對項目總投資的影響程度高達90%以上。然而長期以來開發(fā)商過于重視房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目的類型和收益，而忽略了房地產(chǎn)前期階段風險的重要性，往往是出現(xiàn)問題之后才去彌補和挽救，致使開發(fā)成本上升，風險增大，甚至整個開發(fā)項目的失敗。因此，在房地產(chǎn)市場競爭趨于白熱化的環(huán)境下，進行房地產(chǎn)項目前期投資風險評價研究，對預防和降低投資風險、提高房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟效益具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文的主要研究工作如下：首先介紹了我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和當前開發(fā)商在房地產(chǎn)項目前期階段投資過程中存在的問題；其次對房地產(chǎn)投資風險、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡以及粗糙集的相關理論進行了闡述；然后對房地產(chǎn)項目前期階段的內容與風險進行了系統(tǒng)地分析和歸類，并利用粗糙集對風險指標進行約簡，建立了基于RS-BPNN房地產(chǎn)前期投資風險評價模型；最后用石家莊市XX房地產(chǎn)項目進行驗證，結果表明，該模型在房地產(chǎn)前期投資風險評價方面是可行的、有效的，具有較高的實用價值。
[Abstract]:As one of the basic industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, the real estate industry has the characteristics of long construction time, many influencing factors, large investment amount, high return rate and wide range. This determines the complexity and risk of real estate investment process. Real estate risk is an objective existence, it runs through every link of real estate development activities, among which the most unknown factors in the early stage. The impact on the total investment of the project is as high as more than 90%. However, for a long time, developers have paid too much attention to the types and benefits of real estate development projects, and neglected the importance of the risk in the early stage of real estate. It is often after the problem to make up for and rescue, resulting in higher development costs, increased risk, and even the failure of the entire development project. Therefore, in the real estate market competition tends to be white-hot environment. The research on the pre-investment risk evaluation of real estate projects has important theoretical and practical significance in preventing and reducing investment risks and improving the economic benefits of real estate enterprises. The main research work of this paper is as follows: firstly, it introduces the current situation of the real estate industry in China and the problems existing in the investment process of the current developers in the early stage of the real estate project; Secondly, the paper expounds the BP neural network of real estate investment risk and the theory of rough set. Then the content and risk of the early stage of the real estate project are systematically analyzed and classified, and the rough set is used to reduce the risk index. The risk evaluation model of real estate pre-investment based on RS-BPNN is established. Finally, XX real estate project in Shijiazhuang City is used to verify the model. The results show that the model is feasible, effective and of high practical value in the risk evaluation of real estate pre-investment.
【學位授予單位】：河北工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.233.42;F224

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