不同維度數據下的能源經濟建模及中國能耗峰值預測研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-17 04:17
【摘要】：開展能源經濟內在規(guī)律與趨勢研究是制定能源戰(zhàn)略的基礎性工作。國際經驗值得借鑒或警示,但國家、行業(yè)、技術等異質性決定了任何單個或少數幾個國家能源消費的歷史經驗都很難單獨作為其他國家的參考。本文采用不同維度的數據以刻畫這些異質性,通過建立自適應分段計量模型,探索更多國家和部門能源消費軌跡差異及其成因,并形成決策參考。自適應分段計量模型通過對入均GDP(：人均投資和人均消費)的分段回歸,得到由多段不同斜率的線段組成的擬合線,在結果得到之前,并不能預期其形狀和趨勢。這避免了常用的二次、三次函數模型對模型形式的提前主觀設定。針對經驗研究中通常存在的穩(wěn)健性問題,本文對各部分研究的分段方法、分段數、控制變量等均進行穩(wěn)健性檢驗,并對各部分的峰值預測結果進行相互比較,以檢驗結果的穩(wěn)健性。本文數據不僅包括60多個大國1960年以來的面板數據,也包括“60多個國家×50多年時間×5個行業(yè)”的三維數據。增加了一個行業(yè)維度,考慮到了行業(yè)間的關聯(lián)、擴充了研究中的基礎信息量、增強了結論的統(tǒng)計顯著性,同時也控制了更多的不可觀測因素。主要內容包括：(1)以總量能耗為研究對象,討論能源消費隨著經濟發(fā)展的歷史軌跡,結果表明,國際平均意義上,人均能耗首先隨人均GDP增加而增加,在人均GDP達到1.9萬美元左右(2005年不變價,購買力平價法,下同),人均能耗開始有下降趨勢�？紤]到能耗主要是由GDP中的投資驅動的,有必要從需求側出發(fā),區(qū)分投資和消費對能源消費的作用效果,依據國際經驗討論中國未來投資率變化：對能耗的影響。高投資率會導致較高的能耗水平以及較晚的達峰時間。依據“能耗一投資”模型,得到高投資率情景下,我國能耗在2032年達到峰值,峰值量為60億噸標準油(對應人均GDP為2.9萬美元)；在低投資率情景下,在2029年達峰,峰值量為53.5億噸標準袖(對應人均GDP為2.5萬美元)。(2)以公路交通部門為研究對象,分析公路交通能耗的國際歷史經驗,并據此預測原金磚四國未來公路交通的能源消費。結論表明：在國際平均意義上,隨著經濟增長,人均公路交通能耗先增加,在達到一個峰值點(人均GDP等于1.9萬美元)后,開始有下降趨勢。中國公路交通能耗將在2039年達到峰值,峰值能耗為6.1億噸標油,對應的人均GDP為3.9萬美元。(3)以分部門能耗為對象,將國家、行業(yè)、時間三個維度的能耗數據集結在一個統(tǒng)一的分析框架內,在考慮產業(yè)關聯(lián)以及多類別不可觀測因素的基礎上討論各個行業(yè)的能耗歷史規(guī)律,并據此預測中國各部門能耗。結論表明,在國際一般意義上,總體人均能耗及分部門人均能耗(除其他部門)在經濟水平較低階段均隨著人均GDP增長而增加,在達到某一經濟水平后逐漸趨緩甚至下降。在低投資率情境下,我國總能源消費量在2032年達到,約為151億噸標準油(對應人均GDP為2.9萬美元)；工業(yè)部門在2023年達到峰值,峰值量為12億噸標準油(1.8萬美元)；居民部門在2031年達到峰值,峰值量為7.2億噸標準油(2.7萬美元)；交通部門在2036年達到峰值,峰值量為6億噸標準油0.5萬美元)。本文的預測結果是對“自然”情景的預測。如果今后我國采取約束力更強的節(jié)能減排政策,實際用能量將比本文的預測值低。本研究結果也為氣候政策綜合評估模型提供了一個比較基準。
[Abstract]:The study of the internal law and trend of energy economy is the basic work to develop energy strategy. International experience is worth learning or warning, but the heterogeneity of the country, industry, technology and so on determines that any single or a few of the historical experiences of energy consumption in a few countries are very difficult to serve as a reference for other countries. In this paper, data of different dimensions are used to describe these heterogeneity, and through the establishment of a self-adaptive segmentation model, the difference and the origin of energy consumption in more countries and departments are explored, and the decision-making reference is formed. The adaptive segment measurement model obtains the fitting line composed of segments with different slopes by the segment regression to the average GDP (per capita investment and per capita consumption), and the shape and the trend cannot be expected before the result is obtained. This avoids the usual quadratic and cubic function models in advance subjective setting of the model. In this paper, the robustness of the method, the number of segments, the control variables and the like of each part of the study are tested for robustness, and the peak prediction results of each part are compared with each other to check the robustness of the results. The data not only includes the panel data of more than 60 big countries since 1960, but also the three-dimensional data of the "More than 60 countries have over 50 years of time and five industries". An industry dimension is added, the inter-industry association is taken into account, the basic information amount in the research is expanded, the statistical significance of the conclusion is enhanced, and more non-observable factors are also controlled. The main contents include: (1) The total energy consumption is the research object, and the historical track of energy consumption with the development of the economy is discussed. The results show that the per capita energy consumption is first increased with the increase of the per capita GDP in the international average sense, and the per capita GDP is around US $19,000 (the constant price of 2005). The purchasing power parity (PPP), the same below), the per capita energy consumption begins to decline. Considering that the energy consumption is mainly driven by the investment in GDP, it is necessary to distinguish the effect of investment and consumption on energy consumption from the demand side, and discuss the change of the future investment rate of China according to the international experience: the effect on energy consumption. High investment rates lead to higher levels of energy consumption and later time to peak. According to the "energy consumption one investment" model, under the condition of high investment rate, the energy consumption of China reached the peak in 2032, and the peak value is 6 billion tons of standard oil (the corresponding per capita GDP is US $2.9 million); in the low investment rate scenario, at the peak of 2029, The peak value is 53.5 million tons of standard sleeves (corresponding per capita GDP of US $25,000). (2) The highway traffic department is the research object, and the international historical experience of the highway traffic energy consumption is analyzed, and the energy consumption of the future highway traffic of the former BRIC is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, with the growth of the economy, the energy consumption per capita is increased firstly, and the trend of falling is started after a peak point is reached (per capita GDP is equal to US $1.9 million). China's road traffic energy consumption will reach its peak in 2039, with a peak energy consumption of 6.1 billion tons of standard oil, and the corresponding per capita GDP is $3.9 million. (3) the energy consumption data of the three dimensions of the national, the industry and the time are assembled in a unified analysis framework by using the energy consumption of the sub-sector as an object, and the energy consumption history rule of each industry is discussed based on the industrial association and the multi-category non-observable factors, And the energy consumption of each department in China is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, in the international general sense, the overall per capita energy consumption and the per-capita energy consumption of the sub-sector (other than other departments) increase with the increase of the per capita GDP in the lower stage of the economic level, and gradually decrease or even decrease after reaching a certain economic level. In the context of low investment rate, China's total energy consumption was reached in 2032, about 151 billion tons of standard oil (per capita GDP of $2.9 million); the industrial sector reached its peak in 2023 with a peak of 1.2 billion tons of standard oil ($180 million); and the population sector reached its peak in 2031. The peak amount is 7.2 million tons of standard oil ($2.7 million); the transport sector has reached its peak in 2036 with a peak of 600 million tons of standard oil (US $0.5 million). The prediction of this paper is the prediction of the "natural" scenario. If a more binding energy-saving and emission-reduction policy is adopted in the future, the actual energy will be lower than the predicted value of this paper. The results of this study also provide a baseline for the climate policy integrated assessment model.
【學位授予單位】：北京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F206
本文編號：2478795
[Abstract]:The study of the internal law and trend of energy economy is the basic work to develop energy strategy. International experience is worth learning or warning, but the heterogeneity of the country, industry, technology and so on determines that any single or a few of the historical experiences of energy consumption in a few countries are very difficult to serve as a reference for other countries. In this paper, data of different dimensions are used to describe these heterogeneity, and through the establishment of a self-adaptive segmentation model, the difference and the origin of energy consumption in more countries and departments are explored, and the decision-making reference is formed. The adaptive segment measurement model obtains the fitting line composed of segments with different slopes by the segment regression to the average GDP (per capita investment and per capita consumption), and the shape and the trend cannot be expected before the result is obtained. This avoids the usual quadratic and cubic function models in advance subjective setting of the model. In this paper, the robustness of the method, the number of segments, the control variables and the like of each part of the study are tested for robustness, and the peak prediction results of each part are compared with each other to check the robustness of the results. The data not only includes the panel data of more than 60 big countries since 1960, but also the three-dimensional data of the "More than 60 countries have over 50 years of time and five industries". An industry dimension is added, the inter-industry association is taken into account, the basic information amount in the research is expanded, the statistical significance of the conclusion is enhanced, and more non-observable factors are also controlled. The main contents include: (1) The total energy consumption is the research object, and the historical track of energy consumption with the development of the economy is discussed. The results show that the per capita energy consumption is first increased with the increase of the per capita GDP in the international average sense, and the per capita GDP is around US $19,000 (the constant price of 2005). The purchasing power parity (PPP), the same below), the per capita energy consumption begins to decline. Considering that the energy consumption is mainly driven by the investment in GDP, it is necessary to distinguish the effect of investment and consumption on energy consumption from the demand side, and discuss the change of the future investment rate of China according to the international experience: the effect on energy consumption. High investment rates lead to higher levels of energy consumption and later time to peak. According to the "energy consumption one investment" model, under the condition of high investment rate, the energy consumption of China reached the peak in 2032, and the peak value is 6 billion tons of standard oil (the corresponding per capita GDP is US $2.9 million); in the low investment rate scenario, at the peak of 2029, The peak value is 53.5 million tons of standard sleeves (corresponding per capita GDP of US $25,000). (2) The highway traffic department is the research object, and the international historical experience of the highway traffic energy consumption is analyzed, and the energy consumption of the future highway traffic of the former BRIC is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, with the growth of the economy, the energy consumption per capita is increased firstly, and the trend of falling is started after a peak point is reached (per capita GDP is equal to US $1.9 million). China's road traffic energy consumption will reach its peak in 2039, with a peak energy consumption of 6.1 billion tons of standard oil, and the corresponding per capita GDP is $3.9 million. (3) the energy consumption data of the three dimensions of the national, the industry and the time are assembled in a unified analysis framework by using the energy consumption of the sub-sector as an object, and the energy consumption history rule of each industry is discussed based on the industrial association and the multi-category non-observable factors, And the energy consumption of each department in China is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, in the international general sense, the overall per capita energy consumption and the per-capita energy consumption of the sub-sector (other than other departments) increase with the increase of the per capita GDP in the lower stage of the economic level, and gradually decrease or even decrease after reaching a certain economic level. In the context of low investment rate, China's total energy consumption was reached in 2032, about 151 billion tons of standard oil (per capita GDP of $2.9 million); the industrial sector reached its peak in 2023 with a peak of 1.2 billion tons of standard oil ($180 million); and the population sector reached its peak in 2031. The peak amount is 7.2 million tons of standard oil ($2.7 million); the transport sector has reached its peak in 2036 with a peak of 600 million tons of standard oil (US $0.5 million). The prediction of this paper is the prediction of the "natural" scenario. If a more binding energy-saving and emission-reduction policy is adopted in the future, the actual energy will be lower than the predicted value of this paper. The results of this study also provide a baseline for the climate policy integrated assessment model.
【學位授予單位】：北京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F206
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，本文編號：2478795
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