【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟全球化和經(jīng)濟一體化的不斷深入,世界各國之間的經(jīng)濟關(guān)系日益緊密,相互依存度顯著提高,都無法避免受到其他國家經(jīng)濟波動的影響。特別是,金融危機后,全球經(jīng)濟受到重創(chuàng),增長速度嚴重放緩,世界主要經(jīng)濟體經(jīng)濟均處于經(jīng)濟周期的收縮期,對外直接投資流量大幅下滑,嚴重影響了全球國際直接投資量。而此時,中國作為新興經(jīng)濟體對外直接投資卻異軍突起,增長迅猛。因此,在此背景下,研究世界經(jīng)濟周期波動對中國對外直接投資的影響,以及如何在經(jīng)濟波動中繼續(xù)保持中國對外直接投資的穩(wěn)步增長,是值得研究的重要課題。本文對以往研究成果進行簡單的梳理總結(jié),在此基礎(chǔ)上,首先從理論角度分析了經(jīng)濟周期階段性對國際直接投資的影響機理,揭示國際直接投資的驅(qū)動力——預(yù)期投資收益率,及預(yù)期投資收益最大化的實現(xiàn)方式,本文提出經(jīng)濟周期階段性會通過資產(chǎn)價格、融資成本、沉淀成本等途徑影響其實現(xiàn)方式,從而改變預(yù)期投資收益率,同時經(jīng)濟周期波動還會影響到投資風險,繼而在預(yù)期收益率和風險的共同作用下影響到國際直接投資的流向和規(guī)模。其次,分別闡述了世界經(jīng)濟周期演化和中國對外直接投資的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國對外直接投資也呈階段性波動特征,并對兩者進行了統(tǒng)計分析,結(jié)果顯示兩者之間存在密切相關(guān)性。隨后,基于以上分析,選取2003-2014年間中國對全球110個國家和地區(qū)的直接投資數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本,運用引力模型,通過實證研究來分析世界經(jīng)濟周期波動對中國對外直接投資的影響,結(jié)果顯示,世界經(jīng)濟處于擴張期時,中國對外直接投資減少,而當世界經(jīng)濟周期處于收縮期時,中國對外直接投資反而增加了,即中國對外直接投資與世界經(jīng)濟周期波動呈反向相關(guān),同時還發(fā)現(xiàn)世界經(jīng)濟處于收縮期時的對外直接投資彈性要大于擴張期時,呈現(xiàn)非對稱性特征,在分類國家的實證檢驗中發(fā)現(xiàn),發(fā)達國家在擴張期時對中國對外直接投資的影響較大,而發(fā)展中國家則在衰退期時的影響更大。最后,本文根據(jù)所得出的結(jié)論,對促進中國對外直接投資提出相關(guān)政策建議,以期為中國未來對外直接投資政策的制定提供一些參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization and economic integration, the economic relations between countries in the world are increasingly close, and the degree of interdependence is significantly increased, which can not avoid being affected by the economic fluctuations of other countries. Especially, after the financial crisis, the global economy has been severely damaged and the growth rate has slowed down seriously. The world's major economies are in the contraction period of the economic cycle, and the outward direct investment flows have fallen sharply, which has seriously affected the global volume of international direct investment. At this time, as an emerging economy, China's outward direct investment is rising rapidly. Therefore, it is an important task to study the influence of the world economic cycle fluctuation on China's outward direct investment and how to keep the steady growth of China's outward direct investment in the economic fluctuation. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of economic cycle stages on FDI, and reveals the driving force of FDI-the expected return on investment, which is the driving force of FDI, based on this, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of economic cycle stages on FDI from the theoretical point of view, and reveals the driving force of FDI. And how to realize the maximization of expected investment return, this paper puts forward that the stage of economic cycle will influence the realization way through the way of asset price, financing cost, precipitation cost, and so on, so as to change the expected rate of return on investment. At the same time, the fluctuation of economic cycle will also affect the investment risk, and then affect the flow and scale of international direct investment under the combination of expected rate of return and risk. Secondly, it expounds the evolution of the world economic cycle and the current situation of China's outward direct investment, and finds that China's outward direct investment is also fluctuating in stages, and makes a statistical analysis of the two. The results showed that there was a close correlation between them. Then, based on the above analysis, the data of China's direct investment in 110 countries and regions in the world during 2003-2014 was selected as a sample, and the gravity model was used. This paper analyzes the impact of world economic cycle fluctuations on China's outward direct investment through empirical research. The results show that when the world economy is in a period of expansion, China's outward direct investment decreases, and when the world economic cycle is in a contraction period, On the contrary, China's outward direct investment increased, that is, China's outward direct investment was inversely correlated with the fluctuations of the world economic cycle. At the same time, it was also found that the elasticity of outward direct investment in the world economy in the period of contraction was greater than that in the period of expansion. In the empirical test of classified countries, it is found that the developed countries have a greater impact on China's outward direct investment during the expansion period, while the developing countries have a greater impact on China's outward direct investment during the recession period. Finally, according to the conclusions, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations to promote China's OFDI, in order to provide some reference basis for the formulation of China's future OFDI policy.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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