【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入了“新常態(tài)”,正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型期、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整陣痛期,依然面臨較大經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力;但是,大數(shù)據(jù)、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)等現(xiàn)代科學(xué)技術(shù)蓬勃發(fā)展,為我國(guó)搶占信息技術(shù)高地、創(chuàng)新發(fā)展帶來(lái)機(jī)遇。因此,國(guó)家積極推動(dòng)實(shí)施創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)戰(zhàn)略,剛剛勝利召開的十八屆五中全會(huì)確立了“創(chuàng)新、協(xié)調(diào)、綠色、開放、共享”的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展原則,表明了創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)發(fā)展的理念和決心。具體到天津,當(dāng)前正處于京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展、“一帶一路”、國(guó)家自主創(chuàng)新示范區(qū)建設(shè)、國(guó)家自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)和濱海新區(qū)開發(fā)開放等五大戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇疊加期。無(wú)論是對(duì)國(guó)家而言,還是天津而言,重大戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施均需要承載先進(jìn)科學(xué)知識(shí)、技術(shù)和富有創(chuàng)新精神的專業(yè)技術(shù)人才隊(duì)伍予以支撐。其中,人才需求預(yù)測(cè)是一項(xiàng)基礎(chǔ)性工作,對(duì)專業(yè)技術(shù)人才隊(duì)伍建設(shè)各環(huán)節(jié)工作具有重要意義。基于上述背景和思路,本研究以天津市國(guó)有企事業(yè)單位專業(yè)技術(shù)人才為研究對(duì)象,首先對(duì)專業(yè)技術(shù)人才的概念、范圍等進(jìn)行界定,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于人才需求預(yù)測(cè)的相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理總結(jié)。其次,以天津統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒、天津科技統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒等歷史數(shù)據(jù)資料為支撐,立足目前天津市國(guó)有企事業(yè)單位專業(yè)技術(shù)人才隊(duì)伍現(xiàn)狀,運(yùn)用GM(1,1)灰色預(yù)測(cè)、回歸預(yù)測(cè)等方法,對(duì)天津市未來(lái)15年國(guó)有企事業(yè)單位專業(yè)技術(shù)人才的需求總量進(jìn)行了科學(xué)合理預(yù)測(cè),發(fā)現(xiàn)與當(dāng)前專業(yè)技術(shù)人才存量之間存在巨大缺口。最后,為確保滿足人才需求,借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外成功實(shí)踐,重點(diǎn)圍繞專業(yè)技術(shù)人才規(guī)劃引進(jìn)、評(píng)價(jià)激勵(lì)、管理服務(wù)等內(nèi)容,針對(duì)性地提出了加強(qiáng)以人才規(guī)劃為載體的頂層設(shè)計(jì)、優(yōu)化以清單梳理為基礎(chǔ)的政策環(huán)境、打造以人才集聚為目的的聚才平臺(tái)、創(chuàng)新以服務(wù)人才為核心的工作模式和構(gòu)建以信息技術(shù)為支撐的運(yùn)行體系等對(duì)策建議,以期源源不斷保障人才供給,滿足天津市未來(lái)發(fā)展對(duì)專業(yè)技術(shù)人才的需求。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic development has entered the "new normal", is in the period of economic development transition, industrial structure adjustment painful period, still facing greater economic downward pressure; However, big data, Internet of things and other modern science and technology flourish, for our country to seize the high ground of information technology, innovation and development opportunities. Therefore, the state actively promotes the implementation of the innovation-driven strategy, and the fifth plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee just successfully held has established the economic development principles of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing", which shows the concept and determination of innovation-driven development. Tianjin is currently in the five strategic opportunities superposition period, such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, "Belt and Road", the construction of national independent innovation demonstration zone, the construction of national free trade area and the development and opening of Binhai New area. Whether for the country or Tianjin, the implementation of the major strategy needs to bear advanced scientific knowledge, technology and innovative professional and technical talents to support. Among them, the forecast of talent demand is a basic work, which is of great significance to the construction of professional and technical talents. Based on the above background and train of thought, this research takes Tianjin state-owned enterprises and institutions specialized technical personnel as the research object, first of all, defines the concept and scope of professional and technical personnel, etc. The related research literature on talent demand prediction at home and abroad is summarized. Secondly, based on the historical data such as Tianjin Statistical Yearbook, Tianjin Science and Technology Statistics Yearbook, and based on the present situation of Tianjin state-owned enterprises and institutions' professional and technical personnel, the methods of GM (1 / 1) grey prediction and regression prediction are used. This paper makes a scientific and reasonable prediction of the total demand for professional and technical personnel of state-owned enterprises and institutions in Tianjin in the next 15 years, and finds that there is a huge gap between the demand for professional and technical personnel and the current stock of professional and technical personnel. Finally, in order to meet the needs of talents and draw lessons from the successful practice at home and abroad, focusing on the introduction of professional and technical talents planning, evaluation incentives, management services and other contents, this paper puts forward a top-level design that strengthens the talent planning as the carrier. We should optimize the policy environment based on list combing, create a talent gathering platform, innovate the working mode with service talents as the core and build an information technology-supported operation system. In order to continuously guarantee the supply of talents, meet the future development of Tianjin professional and technical talent demand.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：C964.2
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本文編號(hào)：2356331