【摘要】：貿(mào)易出口和對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)于國(guó)家和企業(yè)都是至關(guān)重要的。對(duì)于跨國(guó)企業(yè),貿(mào)易出口能開(kāi)拓市場(chǎng);對(duì)外直接投資能讓企業(yè)繞開(kāi)貿(mào)易壁壘并充分利用當(dāng)?shù)馗鞣N資源,進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)跨國(guó)企業(yè)的發(fā)展。對(duì)于國(guó)家,貿(mào)易出口是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要途徑之一;對(duì)外直接投資能促進(jìn)跨國(guó)企業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)和轉(zhuǎn)型,進(jìn)而能促進(jìn)整個(gè)國(guó)家的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)。然而貿(mào)易出口和對(duì)外直接投資的關(guān)系在半個(gè)多世紀(jì)以來(lái)都未有定論。一些學(xué)者認(rèn)為對(duì)外直接投資提升了企業(yè)實(shí)力,同時(shí)替代了出口;一些學(xué)者認(rèn)為對(duì)外直接投資促進(jìn)了母國(guó)中間產(chǎn)品的出口;還有一些學(xué)者認(rèn)為,在不同的行業(yè)和國(guó)家,替代效應(yīng)和促進(jìn)效應(yīng)都存在。近些年來(lái),中國(guó)與東盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)愈加頻繁。隨著中國(guó)-東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)在2010年正式建成,中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的貿(mào)易出口額在四年的時(shí)間增加了近兩倍,對(duì)東盟直接投資流量增加了1.77倍。在此背景下,中國(guó)企業(yè)在東盟的直接投資是犧牲了還是促進(jìn)了貿(mào)易出口?為了解決這一問(wèn)題,本文首先進(jìn)行了國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述,分析了學(xué)者們針對(duì)不同國(guó)家之間貿(mào)易出口和對(duì)外直接投資的關(guān)系的討論。根據(jù)2003-2014年的數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的直接投資與貿(mào)易出口兩方面的宏觀走勢(shì)進(jìn)行分析。本文分析國(guó)際直接投資出口效應(yīng)的五個(gè)種類:由生產(chǎn)線、資本設(shè)備和中間產(chǎn)品引發(fā)的正向的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng);由外貿(mào)公司、銷售網(wǎng)點(diǎn)和售后服務(wù)引發(fā)的正向的市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大效應(yīng);由海外子公司競(jìng)爭(zhēng)引起的負(fù)向的出口替代效應(yīng);由技術(shù)傳播引起的正向和負(fù)向的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng);由東道國(guó)就業(yè)量提升引起的正向的收入創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)。本文根據(jù)國(guó)際直接投資的不同動(dòng)因分析了出口效應(yīng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制:市場(chǎng)尋求型投資在建廠初期引發(fā)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)收效應(yīng)和市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大效應(yīng),在海外企業(yè)成熟后引發(fā)了出口替代效應(yīng);由于效率尋求型投資的垂直一體化生產(chǎn),投資母國(guó)、各零部件生產(chǎn)國(guó)、組裝國(guó)和銷售國(guó)的貿(mào)易量都提升了,引起了貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)和市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大效應(yīng);資源尋求型投資由于從母國(guó)進(jìn)口開(kāi)采設(shè)備引發(fā)了貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)。如果企業(yè)利用資源在當(dāng)?shù)刂瞥沙善肪蜁?huì)引發(fā)出口替代效應(yīng),如果企業(yè)將資源運(yùn)回母國(guó)制成成品就會(huì)引發(fā)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大效應(yīng);由于技術(shù)尋求型投資成功獲取技術(shù)并改善產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量,其貨物貿(mào)易和服務(wù)貿(mào)易都有所提升,引發(fā)了市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大效應(yīng)。由于國(guó)際直接投資促進(jìn)了當(dāng)?shù)鼐用竦木蜆I(yè),所以無(wú)論任何投資動(dòng)機(jī)都會(huì)引發(fā)收入創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)。接下來(lái)本文結(jié)合中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資與貿(mào)易出口的實(shí)際情況,討論中國(guó)企業(yè)在東盟直接投資的出口效應(yīng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。然后本文根據(jù)2003-2013年的數(shù)據(jù),設(shè)定了人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、航運(yùn)鐵路加總、基礎(chǔ)通訊設(shè)施等變量并建立了貿(mào)易引力模型。經(jīng)過(guò)對(duì)面板數(shù)據(jù)的回歸分析,最后得出了中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的直接投資在總體上對(duì)貿(mào)易出口的促進(jìn)關(guān)系:中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的直接投資每增加1%,中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的貿(mào)易出口就會(huì)增加0.173%。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文通過(guò)兩次F統(tǒng)計(jì)量的判斷選擇了變系數(shù)模型來(lái)考察出口效應(yīng)的個(gè)體差異,得出老撾和柬埔寨的出口替代效應(yīng)和其他國(guó)家的出口互補(bǔ)效應(yīng)。最后進(jìn)行了總結(jié)并提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Trade exports and foreign direct investment are of vital importance to both countries and enterprises. For multinational enterprises, trade exports can open up markets; and foreign direct investment can enable enterprises to bypass trade barriers and make full use of local resources to achieve the development of multinational enterprises. Firstly, foreign direct investment can promote the growth and transformation of multinational enterprises, and then promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the whole country. However, the relationship between trade exports and foreign direct investment has not been conclusive for more than half a century. In recent years, economic exchanges between China and ASEAN have become more frequent. With the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, China's trade with ASEAN has been exported for four years. In this context, Chinese enterprises'direct investment in ASEAN has sacrificed or promoted trade exports? In order to solve this problem, this paper first conducts a literature review at home and abroad, and analyzes the scholars' trade exports and foreign direct investment between different countries. Based on the data from 2003 to 2014, this paper analyzes the macro trend of China's direct investment and trade exports to ASEAN. Five types of export effects of FDI are analyzed in this paper: positive trade creation effects caused by production lines, capital equipment and intermediate products; foreign trade companies and sales networks. Positive market enlargement effect caused by point and after-sale service; negative export substitution effect caused by competition of overseas subsidiaries; positive and negative technology spillover effect caused by technology diffusion; positive income creation effect caused by the increase of employment in host country. This paper analyzes the spillover effect according to the different motivations of international direct investment. Export effect transmission mechanism: market-seeking investment in the early stage of plant construction leads to trade income-generating effect and market expansion effect, which leads to export substitution effect after the maturity of overseas enterprises; due to the vertical integration production of efficiency-seeking investment, the trade volume of investment home country, parts producer country, assembly country and sales country has increased, causing Trade creation effect and market expansion effect; resource-seeking investment triggers trade creation effect by importing and exploiting equipment from the home country. If enterprises make use of resources to produce finished products locally, export substitution effect will be triggered; if enterprises transport resources back to the home country to produce finished products, market expansion effect will be triggered; because of technology-seeking investment. With the successful acquisition of technology and the improvement of product quality, both trade in goods and services has increased, triggering a market expansion effect. As international direct investment promotes the employment of local residents, any investment motive will trigger an income creation effect. Then, based on the data of 2003-2013, this paper sets up the variables of GDP per capita, the aggregation of shipping and railway, and the basic communication facilities, and establishes the trade gravity model. On the whole, the relationship between direct investment and trade export is that for every 1% increase in China's direct investment in ASEAN, China's trade export to ASEAN will increase by 0.173%. On this basis, this paper chooses the variable coefficient model to examine the individual differences of export effect through two F statistics judgments, and obtains the export substitution of Laos and Cambodia. The effects of generation and complementary effects of other countries are summarized. Finally, policy recommendations are summarized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F125;F752.7

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 黃莞苓,趙進(jìn);關(guān)于調(diào)整我國(guó)利用外商直接投資政策的研究[J];江蘇理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2001年04期

2 任會(huì)中;“十五”期間歐盟對(duì)中國(guó)直接投資研究[J];投資研究;2002年01期

3 胡君茹;外商直接投資的不利影響及對(duì)策[J];上海電機(jī)技術(shù)高等�？茖W(xué)校學(xué)報(bào);2002年01期

4 何金旗;外商對(duì)我國(guó)直接投資的規(guī)模分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)縱橫;2002年11期

5 望明輝,陳建;武漢市外商直接投資發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及對(duì)策分析[J];科技進(jìn)步與對(duì)策;2002年09期

6 李永軍;中國(guó)外商直接投資行業(yè)分布的決定因素[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2003年07期

7 聶聆;試析我國(guó)入世對(duì)美在華直接投資的影響[J];外國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理;2003年03期

8 任會(huì)中;歐盟對(duì)浙江省直接投資分析[J];德國(guó)研究;2003年04期

9 曹洪軍,曹廷求;山東省外商直接投資出口效應(yīng)的實(shí)證分析[J];中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2003年01期

10 黃傳榮;中國(guó)利用外商直接投資若干問(wèn)題分析[J];江蘇工業(yè)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2004年02期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前10條

1 沈悅;郭鐳;;外商直接投資與陜西省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)證分析[A];陜西省體制改革研究會(huì)2006-2007優(yōu)秀論文集[C];2007年

2 孫運(yùn)科;陳永廣;;后金融危機(jī)時(shí)代的外商直接投資及我國(guó)招商引資政策探討[A];中國(guó)工程科技論壇第123場(chǎng)——2011國(guó)防科技工業(yè)科學(xué)發(fā)展論壇論文集[C];2011年

3 路江涌;;外商直接投資對(duì)內(nèi)資企業(yè)效率的影響和渠道[A];清華大學(xué)中國(guó)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心研究報(bào)告（總第5期）[C];2008年

4 楊平;蔡琦;;外商直接投資對(duì)廣東工業(yè)企業(yè)自主創(chuàng)新的實(shí)證分析——以廣東肇慶動(dòng)力配件有限公司為例[A];市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)與轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)——2011年廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會(huì)年會(huì)論文集[C];2011年

5 羅雨澤;朱善利;陳玉宇;羅來(lái)軍;;外商直接投資的空間外溢效應(yīng):對(duì)中國(guó)區(qū)域企業(yè)生產(chǎn)率影響的經(jīng)驗(yàn)檢驗(yàn)[A];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（季刊）第7卷第2期[C];2008年

6 劉巳洋;路江涌;陶志剛;;外商直接投資對(duì)內(nèi)資制造業(yè)企業(yè)的溢出效應(yīng):基于地理距離的研究[A];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（季刊）第8卷第1期[C];2008年

7 劉巳洋;路江涌;陶志剛;;外商直接投資對(duì)內(nèi)資制造業(yè)企業(yè)的溢出效應(yīng):基于地理距離的研究[A];清華大學(xué)中國(guó)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心研究報(bào)告（總第8期）[C];2008年

8 陳洪濤;潘素昆;;外商直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的影響研究——基于溢出效應(yīng)視角[A];第十四屆中國(guó)管理科學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集(上冊(cè))[C];2012年

9 謝建國(guó);;外商直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)的技術(shù)溢出——一個(gè)基于中國(guó)省區(qū)面板數(shù)據(jù)的研究[A];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（季刊）第5卷第4期（總第22期）[C];2006年

10 吳鈞;;區(qū)域外商直接投資績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)及對(duì)策研究——以淮安市為例[A];江蘇省外國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)說(shuō)研究會(huì)2011年學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集[C];2011年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 王立斌;外商直接投資影響東道國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的機(jī)理及對(duì)策研究[D];東北師范大學(xué);2012年

2 周靈靈;腐敗、反腐敗與外商直接投資[D];中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2015年

3 周明月;外商直接投資對(duì)我國(guó)環(huán)境的影響研究[D];遼寧大學(xué);2010年

4 古楠（Kundan Pokhrel Majagaiya）;外商直接投資及其在尼泊爾的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響[D];東華大學(xué);2010年

5 逄增輝;當(dāng)代外國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)直接投資研究[D];廈門大學(xué);2003年

6 羅漢;外商直接投資對(duì)我國(guó)主要產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[D];復(fù)旦大學(xué);2005年

7 鄭昌國(guó);韓國(guó)在華直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)的理論與實(shí)證分析[D];對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2006年

8 徐唐棠;我國(guó)外商直接投資政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析[D];吉林大學(xué);2010年

9 桑秀國(guó);外商直接投資與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)[D];天津大學(xué);2003年

10 呂立才;外商直接投資與農(nóng)業(yè)及涉農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展[D];浙江大學(xué);2006年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 遲文R，

本文編號(hào)：2218248