中國(guó)就業(yè)彈性的實(shí)證分析及未來(lái)的政策選擇
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-24 14:32
【摘要】：本文主要探究的是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策四大目標(biāo)中的兩大目標(biāo)即經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與充分就業(yè),而奧肯定律是研究這二者之間關(guān)系的重要定律,它指出隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度加快失業(yè)率將降低,反之經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展變緩失業(yè)率將上升。我們可以從中推導(dǎo)出經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與就業(yè)具有正相關(guān)關(guān)系,即經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)會(huì)促進(jìn)就業(yè)的增加。但是,20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度取得了驚人的成績(jī),與此同時(shí)在促進(jìn)就業(yè)方面帶來(lái)就業(yè)的增加量卻沒有取得令人滿意的效果,就業(yè)形勢(shì)比較嚴(yán)峻。就業(yè)是關(guān)系國(guó)計(jì)民生的大事,關(guān)系著廣大人民群眾的切身利益以及全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)的宏偉目標(biāo)。我們?cè)诎l(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí)必須注重就業(yè)問(wèn)題,發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)與改善就業(yè)同時(shí)抓也與建設(shè)社會(huì)主義和諧社會(huì)這一目標(biāo)相一致。為了探究發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)能否帶來(lái)就業(yè)量的增加,以就業(yè)彈性為媒介探究二者之間的關(guān)系。就業(yè)彈性,顧名思義,即指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)每變化一個(gè)百分比所帶來(lái)就業(yè)量變化的百分比,它是體現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)與就業(yè)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵性指標(biāo)。通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)彈性進(jìn)行測(cè)算,我國(guó)就業(yè)彈性總體水平偏低,與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比,就業(yè)彈性還存在很大的提升空間,也表明我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速增長(zhǎng)并沒有帶來(lái)就業(yè)狀況的改善,這也與我國(guó)的過(guò)度追求經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而忽視就業(yè)增加的政績(jī)考核標(biāo)準(zhǔn)有關(guān),為了找出我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在90年代以來(lái)呈現(xiàn)出"高增長(zhǎng)低就業(yè)"的這種現(xiàn)象背后的深層次原因,文章首先介紹經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論、就業(yè)相關(guān)理論及兩者之間關(guān)系的相關(guān)理論;在理論基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與就業(yè)二者之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,用定義法、數(shù)學(xué)模型分別測(cè)算了我國(guó)就業(yè)彈性,并剖析兩種方法的利弊,并且按不同時(shí)間段和不同產(chǎn)業(yè)分別進(jìn)行回歸分析,研究不同發(fā)展階段和不同產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)就業(yè)彈性的影響;最后進(jìn)行就業(yè)影響因素其它維度的實(shí)證分析,在相關(guān)理論及國(guó)內(nèi)著名學(xué)者的研究基礎(chǔ)上列出對(duì)就業(yè)彈性有影響的相關(guān)因素為人均收入水平、資源稟賦、資本存量、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步及經(jīng)濟(jì)體制,在選擇這些因素時(shí)考慮了數(shù)據(jù)的易獲得性、避免多重共線性及盡可能全面性,建立計(jì)量模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,分析的結(jié)果表明經(jīng)濟(jì)體制中投資結(jié)構(gòu)即全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額中非國(guó)有經(jīng)濟(jì)占比對(duì)就業(yè)彈性的影響最顯著,其次是資本要素價(jià)格,再次是人均收入水平,而勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格與就業(yè)彈性成反方向變動(dòng),就業(yè)隨著勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格的上升而減少,呈現(xiàn)資本替代勞動(dòng)的現(xiàn)象。技術(shù)進(jìn)步與資本存量的回歸系數(shù)雖沒有通過(guò)檢驗(yàn),可能是因?yàn)樗鼈儗?duì)就業(yè)存在增加與減少兩個(gè)相反作用的效應(yīng),并不能表示它對(duì)就業(yè)彈性就沒有影響,不同時(shí)期發(fā)揮主要作用的效應(yīng)不同,因此為提高就業(yè)彈性,這兩個(gè)因素也不容忽視。此外,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的回歸系數(shù)雖沒有通過(guò)顯著性檢驗(yàn),但通過(guò)不同產(chǎn)業(yè)的回歸分析第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)彈性遠(yuǎn)大于第一二產(chǎn)業(yè),因此大力發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)與高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)也是拉動(dòng)就業(yè)、提高就業(yè)彈性的重要因素。在以上研究基礎(chǔ)上針對(duì)我國(guó)當(dāng)前不容樂(lè)觀的就業(yè)形勢(shì)提出提高就業(yè)彈性緩解就業(yè)壓力的政策建議有保證經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,促進(jìn)充分就業(yè);挖掘資源稟賦優(yōu)勢(shì),實(shí)現(xiàn)協(xié)調(diào)互動(dòng);優(yōu)化投資結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)投資主體多元化;促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,重視第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展;大力促進(jìn)科技創(chuàng)新,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式;深化經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革,為擴(kuò)大就業(yè)提供制度保障。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly explores two of the four major objectives of macroeconomic policy, namely, economic growth and full employment, and the Okun's law is an important law to study the relationship between the two. It points out that the unemployment rate will decrease with the acceleration of economic development, and vice versa, the unemployment rate will rise with the slowing down of economic development. There is a positive correlation between growth and employment, that is, high-speed economic growth will promote the increase of employment. However, since the 1990s, China's economic development has made astonishing achievements, and at the same time in promoting employment has not achieved satisfactory results, the employment situation is grim. The important matter of people's livelihood concerns the vital interests of the broad masses of the people and the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.While developing the economy, we must pay attention to the problem of employment.While developing the economy and improving employment, it is also consistent with the goal of building a harmonious socialist society. Employment elasticity, as the name implies, refers to the percentage of employment changes brought about by each change in economic growth. It is a key indicator to reflect the coordinated development of economy and employment. Compared with developed countries, employment elasticity still has a lot of room for improvement. It also shows that China's rapid economic growth has not brought about an improvement in the employment situation. This is also related to China's excessive pursuit of economic growth and neglect of employment growth performance evaluation standards, in order to find out that China's economy has shown "high growth and low growth" since the 1990s. This paper first introduces the economic growth theory, the employment related theory and the related theory between the two; on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in China, using the definition method, the mathematical model to calculate the employment elasticity of China, and analyzes the two. The pros and cons of this method are analyzed according to different periods of time and different industries, and the effects of different stages of development and different industries on employment elasticity are studied. Finally, the empirical analysis of other dimensions of employment influencing factors is carried out. Based on the relevant theories and the research of famous domestic scholars, the correlations that affect employment elasticity are listed. Factors are income per capita, resource endowment, capital stock, industrial structure, technological progress and economic system. When choosing these factors, we consider the accessibility of data, avoid multi-collinearity and try to be as comprehensive as possible, and establish an econometric model for empirical analysis. The proportion of non-state-owned economy has the most significant effect on the employment elasticity in the output investment, followed by the price of capital factors, and then the level of per capita income. The price of labor and the elasticity of employment change in the opposite direction. Employment decreases with the increase of labor price, showing the phenomenon of capital replacing labor. Although the regression coefficients have not passed the test, it may be because they have two opposite effects on employment: increase and decrease. It does not mean that they have no effect on employment elasticity. The main effects of different periods are different. Therefore, in order to improve employment elasticity, the regression coefficients of industrial structure can not be ignored. Although it has not passed the significant test, the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry is far greater than that of the primary and secondary industries through regression analysis of different industries. Therefore, vigorously developing service industry and high-tech industry is also an important factor to promote employment and improve employment elasticity. The policy suggestions of high employment elasticity to alleviate employment pressure include ensuring economic development and promoting full employment; tapping resource endowment advantages and realizing coordinated interaction; optimizing investment structure and promoting diversification of investment subjects; promoting industrial restructuring and attaching importance to the development of tertiary industry; vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation and transforming the mode of economic development; deepening economic system. Reform provides institutional guarantee for expanding employment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F249.20
本文編號(hào)：2201107
[Abstract]:This paper mainly explores two of the four major objectives of macroeconomic policy, namely, economic growth and full employment, and the Okun's law is an important law to study the relationship between the two. It points out that the unemployment rate will decrease with the acceleration of economic development, and vice versa, the unemployment rate will rise with the slowing down of economic development. There is a positive correlation between growth and employment, that is, high-speed economic growth will promote the increase of employment. However, since the 1990s, China's economic development has made astonishing achievements, and at the same time in promoting employment has not achieved satisfactory results, the employment situation is grim. The important matter of people's livelihood concerns the vital interests of the broad masses of the people and the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.While developing the economy, we must pay attention to the problem of employment.While developing the economy and improving employment, it is also consistent with the goal of building a harmonious socialist society. Employment elasticity, as the name implies, refers to the percentage of employment changes brought about by each change in economic growth. It is a key indicator to reflect the coordinated development of economy and employment. Compared with developed countries, employment elasticity still has a lot of room for improvement. It also shows that China's rapid economic growth has not brought about an improvement in the employment situation. This is also related to China's excessive pursuit of economic growth and neglect of employment growth performance evaluation standards, in order to find out that China's economy has shown "high growth and low growth" since the 1990s. This paper first introduces the economic growth theory, the employment related theory and the related theory between the two; on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in China, using the definition method, the mathematical model to calculate the employment elasticity of China, and analyzes the two. The pros and cons of this method are analyzed according to different periods of time and different industries, and the effects of different stages of development and different industries on employment elasticity are studied. Finally, the empirical analysis of other dimensions of employment influencing factors is carried out. Based on the relevant theories and the research of famous domestic scholars, the correlations that affect employment elasticity are listed. Factors are income per capita, resource endowment, capital stock, industrial structure, technological progress and economic system. When choosing these factors, we consider the accessibility of data, avoid multi-collinearity and try to be as comprehensive as possible, and establish an econometric model for empirical analysis. The proportion of non-state-owned economy has the most significant effect on the employment elasticity in the output investment, followed by the price of capital factors, and then the level of per capita income. The price of labor and the elasticity of employment change in the opposite direction. Employment decreases with the increase of labor price, showing the phenomenon of capital replacing labor. Although the regression coefficients have not passed the test, it may be because they have two opposite effects on employment: increase and decrease. It does not mean that they have no effect on employment elasticity. The main effects of different periods are different. Therefore, in order to improve employment elasticity, the regression coefficients of industrial structure can not be ignored. Although it has not passed the significant test, the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry is far greater than that of the primary and secondary industries through regression analysis of different industries. Therefore, vigorously developing service industry and high-tech industry is also an important factor to promote employment and improve employment elasticity. The policy suggestions of high employment elasticity to alleviate employment pressure include ensuring economic development and promoting full employment; tapping resource endowment advantages and realizing coordinated interaction; optimizing investment structure and promoting diversification of investment subjects; promoting industrial restructuring and attaching importance to the development of tertiary industry; vigorously promoting scientific and technological innovation and transforming the mode of economic development; deepening economic system. Reform provides institutional guarantee for expanding employment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F249.20
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