【摘要】：“萬(wàn)物土中生,有土斯有糧�！备刈鳛橥恋刭Y源中的精華,不可再生的稀缺資源,是重要的生產(chǎn)、生活資料,關(guān)乎國(guó)家糧食安全、生態(tài)安全、社會(huì)穩(wěn)定和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展對(duì)耕地占用的壓力以及我國(guó)人均耕地少、耕地質(zhì)量總體不高、耕地后備資源不足的基本國(guó)情決定了耕地保護(hù)的極端重要性。以往的耕地保護(hù)主要依靠的是法律和行政約束的強(qiáng)制性保護(hù),缺乏對(duì)耕地保護(hù)外部性問(wèn)題的關(guān)注,缺乏相關(guān)主體的激勵(lì),嚴(yán)重挫傷了地方政府和農(nóng)戶自覺(jué)保護(hù)耕地的意愿,耕地保護(hù)效果不佳。黨中央和國(guó)務(wù)院已經(jīng)意識(shí)到了通過(guò)建立耕地保護(hù)激勵(lì)機(jī)制推動(dòng)耕地保護(hù)工作的重要性,陸續(xù)出臺(tái)政策文件明確建立耕地保護(hù)激勵(lì)機(jī)制。四川省成都市、廣東佛山區(qū)等地也陸續(xù)開(kāi)展了耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償實(shí)踐。學(xué)術(shù)界針對(duì)耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償問(wèn)題展開(kāi)熱議,已有研究探討了國(guó)家或省域?qū)用娲蟪叨鹊母乇Ｗo(hù)補(bǔ)償問(wèn)題,或農(nóng)戶層面的微觀保護(hù)主體的耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償問(wèn)題,集合區(qū)域和農(nóng)戶不同層面問(wèn)題透視的還較少,沒(méi)有形成耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償多層面、多要素的系統(tǒng)的理論體系和研究范式。機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)的重要理論依據(jù),耕地資源的價(jià)值內(nèi)涵不清,針對(duì)耕地價(jià)值的哪一部分進(jìn)行補(bǔ)償存在較大的分歧。補(bǔ)償路徑探索多停留在理論層面的探討,缺乏區(qū)域差異性和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展下的動(dòng)態(tài)性機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)。基于上述背景,本研究在基于耕地保護(hù)形勢(shì)的耕地資產(chǎn)核算基礎(chǔ)上,以城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌試驗(yàn)區(qū),大城市與大農(nóng)村并存,人地矛盾尖銳的重慶市為例,綜合運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型、空間數(shù)據(jù)分析、空間計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析、熵權(quán)改進(jìn)的TOPSIS和CA-Markov模型等多種方法,從耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償意愿、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償空間時(shí)序三個(gè)方面探討耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)暮侠砺窂?并以重慶的典型縣域進(jìn)行補(bǔ)償方案的實(shí)證研究。本研究力圖解決“如何通過(guò)機(jī)制創(chuàng)新破解耕地保護(hù)困境”,擬通過(guò)相關(guān)成果的得出豐富耕地保護(hù)理論,為健全耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)激勵(lì)與制約機(jī)制,完善耕地保護(hù)在內(nèi)的土地管理的相關(guān)政策和法規(guī)提供相對(duì)可行的參考。主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)我國(guó)耕地資源實(shí)物量持續(xù)下降,耕地資源價(jià)值量嚴(yán)重扭曲,耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償機(jī)制急需建立。全國(guó)耕地資源存量雖大,人均占有量卻小,存量和人均占有量持續(xù)下降。2013年,全國(guó)耕地資源存量為13516.34萬(wàn)hm2,人均耕地資源占有量?jī)H為0.099 hm2。1998年以來(lái),我國(guó)耕地資源價(jià)值量持續(xù)增加,1998年、2001年、2004年、2007年、2010年、2013年價(jià)值量存量分別為158.45萬(wàn)億元,165.56萬(wàn)億元,185.41萬(wàn)億元,249.55萬(wàn)億元,393.32萬(wàn)億元,438.97萬(wàn)億元,1998-2013年間耕地資源價(jià)值量流量為280.52萬(wàn)億元。發(fā)展權(quán)價(jià)值的增加量最多,其次是國(guó)家糧食安全戰(zhàn)略價(jià)值的增加量。耕地資源的理論價(jià)值與市場(chǎng)價(jià)值的對(duì)比表明,耕地的理論價(jià)值量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于同期耕地的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值量,差距主要來(lái)源于具有外部性和公共物品特性的發(fā)展權(quán)價(jià)值、國(guó)家糧食安全戰(zhàn)略價(jià)值和生態(tài)價(jià)值等。耕地資源的實(shí)物量和價(jià)值量的變化表明,兩者呈逆向變化關(guān)系,耕地資源價(jià)值的增加不僅受到耕地?cái)?shù)量減少的驅(qū)動(dòng),人口增長(zhǎng),非農(nóng)用地需求的改變,政府的干預(yù)以及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)水平的變化等因素都可能對(duì)耕地價(jià)值的變化產(chǎn)生重要影響。因此,在我國(guó)耕地保護(hù)面臨的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)下,如何顯化耕地資源的真正價(jià)值,給予耕地保護(hù)主體補(bǔ)貼,才能更好地調(diào)動(dòng)保護(hù)主體保護(hù)耕地的主動(dòng)性和積極性。(2)不同區(qū)域、不同類型農(nóng)戶的耕地保護(hù)及補(bǔ)償意愿具有差異性,農(nóng)戶的耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償參與意愿受耕地價(jià)值變化感知、公眾認(rèn)知、農(nóng)戶特征和選擇傾向的影響。農(nóng)戶的耕地價(jià)值認(rèn)知具有明顯的階段性,同期耕地保護(hù)意愿表現(xiàn)出相似的漸進(jìn)性。20世紀(jì)80年代農(nóng)民的耕地價(jià)值感知度較低,認(rèn)知的維度較為單一,認(rèn)可度最高的是耕地的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)價(jià)值,農(nóng)戶“生存小農(nóng)”、“理性小農(nóng)”意識(shí)使得此時(shí)的農(nóng)戶耕地保護(hù)意愿最強(qiáng)烈。90年代,耕地的重要性相對(duì)弱化,農(nóng)民對(duì)耕地的就業(yè)、養(yǎng)老保障的依賴降低,發(fā)展權(quán)價(jià)值逐步受到重視,農(nóng)戶耕地保護(hù)意愿減弱。20世紀(jì)初,農(nóng)戶對(duì)耕地的生態(tài)價(jià)值、發(fā)展權(quán)價(jià)值及情感價(jià)值認(rèn)可度高。伴隨著農(nóng)戶對(duì)耕地多維度價(jià)值的認(rèn)知,農(nóng)戶的耕地保護(hù)意愿較90年代有所回升。不同區(qū)域、不同類型農(nóng)戶的耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償意愿具有顯著的差異性。耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償參與意愿的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型表明,農(nóng)戶特征、公眾認(rèn)知、農(nóng)戶的耕地價(jià)值變化感知和選擇傾向?qū)r(nóng)戶的補(bǔ)償參與意愿均具有顯著影響。其中,勞動(dòng)力人數(shù)、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)價(jià)值變化感知、耕地重要性認(rèn)知和耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分別對(duì)這四類外源潛變量的解釋力度最好。公眾認(rèn)知、選擇傾向和農(nóng)戶特征與耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)膮⑴c意愿呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,公眾認(rèn)知對(duì)補(bǔ)償參與意愿的影響最大。農(nóng)戶的耕地價(jià)值變化感知與補(bǔ)償參與意愿呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,表明農(nóng)戶感知耕地價(jià)值提高時(shí),即使沒(méi)有補(bǔ)償其耕地保護(hù)意愿也會(huì)很強(qiáng)烈。農(nóng)戶作為耕地保護(hù)最直接的參與者,經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)拈_(kāi)展必須尊重農(nóng)戶意愿,以耕地保護(hù)和農(nóng)戶獲益為前提。通過(guò)廣泛宣傳提升農(nóng)戶對(duì)耕地重要性、嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)和耕地保護(hù)政策的認(rèn)知。擬定合理的耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。在耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償方式的選擇上,可在綜合考慮財(cái)政支付能力和民意的基礎(chǔ)上,采用現(xiàn)金和保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償為主,輔以政策、技術(shù)等其他多樣化的補(bǔ)償方式,增加耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償?shù)撵`活性。針對(duì)區(qū)域差異下的補(bǔ)償意愿差異,針對(duì)重點(diǎn)人群,劃定重點(diǎn)區(qū)域。以農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)為主業(yè)的農(nóng)戶是耕地保護(hù)激勵(lì)的重點(diǎn)人群,以他們的意愿需求制定耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償方案,盡可能地彌補(bǔ)他們的“特別犧牲利益”。糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)、基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)區(qū)和城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)合部是耕地保護(hù)激勵(lì)的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域,在耕地保護(hù)的同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)質(zhì)耕地更好保護(hù)。(3)基于耕地資源綜合價(jià)值及分維度價(jià)值的保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)存在空間分異。全市耕地綜合價(jià)值補(bǔ)償額度值以主城區(qū)為核心區(qū)域,沿圈層式向外遞減,至渝東北、渝東南降至最低,總體上呈現(xiàn)“兩圈兩翼,西高東低”的空間格局,局部區(qū)域具有典型的空間變異性,萬(wàn)州和黔江地區(qū)的補(bǔ)償價(jià)值高于周邊區(qū)縣。空間關(guān)聯(lián)分析表明,耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在空間上具有顯著的正相關(guān)性,即補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高的區(qū)縣跟補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高的區(qū)縣相鄰,補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)低的區(qū)縣跟補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)低的區(qū)縣相鄰。基于經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值、社會(huì)價(jià)值和生態(tài)價(jià)值的分維度補(bǔ)償值在地理空間上表現(xiàn)出類似的地域分異格局,即整體上都具有渝西渝中渝東北渝東南。各類補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的Global Moran’s I值介于0.4025-0.8519,空間關(guān)聯(lián)性較強(qiáng)。為提高補(bǔ)償?shù)目尚行?制定耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的彈性區(qū)間,即以耕地資源的發(fā)展權(quán)價(jià)值作為耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償?shù)南孪?以非市場(chǎng)價(jià)值作為耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償?shù)闹虚g值,以綜合價(jià)值作為耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償?shù)纳舷?并依據(jù)不同的目的或在特定的時(shí)期分階段實(shí)行不同的耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。人口、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、交通區(qū)位和農(nóng)戶行為對(duì)耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)空間分異的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析表明,人口因素與耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)空間分異具有明顯的空間集聚關(guān)系。社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素同樣表現(xiàn)出顯著的影響,但影響的程度存在差異,經(jīng)濟(jì)密度高、投資力度大、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化水平高的地區(qū)也是耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的高值集聚區(qū)。這一空間集聚特征也表現(xiàn)在交通區(qū)位因素與耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的空間關(guān)系上。農(nóng)戶行為因素中,農(nóng)戶經(jīng)營(yíng)投入行為、種植選擇行為與耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的空間分異表現(xiàn)出顯著的空間相關(guān)性。因此,耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償機(jī)制的構(gòu)建應(yīng)在區(qū)域耕地資源價(jià)值科學(xué)評(píng)定的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合區(qū)域?qū)嶋H,制定差異化的耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)彈性區(qū)間,提高耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償針對(duì)性和有效性。(4)依據(jù)耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償效率劃定耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償空間時(shí)序,在不同的區(qū)域?qū)嵤┎町惢难a(bǔ)償策略。以耕地建設(shè)負(fù)荷為依據(jù),以重慶耕地分布的37個(gè)區(qū)縣級(jí)單元為研究對(duì)象,確定了各縣域耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)膬?yōu)先序,并將重慶耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償劃分為三個(gè)區(qū)域:優(yōu)先補(bǔ)償區(qū),次級(jí)補(bǔ)償區(qū)和臨界補(bǔ)償區(qū)。三個(gè)區(qū)域涉及的區(qū)縣分別為12個(gè),14個(gè)和11個(gè),占全市耕地總面積的32.36%,37.14%和30.50%。三大區(qū)域在耕地資源稟賦、區(qū)域發(fā)展定位和市級(jí)耕地建設(shè)性補(bǔ)償?shù)闹С至Χ确矫婢嬖陲@著差異。根據(jù)空間時(shí)序和區(qū)域差異性,設(shè)計(jì)耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)戰(zhàn)略。耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償時(shí)序上,分別設(shè)置耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)南刃性圏c(diǎn)區(qū)、試點(diǎn)區(qū)和全面推開(kāi)區(qū);在耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償方式的選擇上,優(yōu)先補(bǔ)償區(qū)和次級(jí)補(bǔ)償區(qū)多為區(qū)位較好的城市近郊區(qū)域,對(duì)農(nóng)戶可以現(xiàn)金+保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償為主,適當(dāng)配置耕地保護(hù)、現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)的信貸優(yōu)惠政策;而次級(jí)補(bǔ)償區(qū)中的部分縣域及臨界補(bǔ)償區(qū)多為遠(yuǎn)離重慶經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)政治中心的縣域,激勵(lì)性補(bǔ)償在以現(xiàn)金+保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償為主外,適當(dāng)配置技術(shù)補(bǔ)償,提高后備建設(shè)區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)“造血”功能。(5)本研究構(gòu)建的耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償思路和關(guān)鍵技術(shù)方法合理、可行,但在不同的區(qū)域應(yīng)用時(shí)應(yīng)進(jìn)行修正�；诟乇Ｗo(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償范圍變化調(diào)控、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差異化設(shè)計(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償空間時(shí)序安排、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)霓r(nóng)戶意愿調(diào)查的耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償思路和關(guān)鍵技術(shù)方法在重慶市江津區(qū)的實(shí)證表明是合理、可行的。在耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償范圍方面,借助遙感解譯技術(shù)和GIS技術(shù)動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)土地利用變化,利用CA-Markov模型預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)年份的耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償范圍,實(shí)現(xiàn)耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)膭?dòng)態(tài)化、精確化;在耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方面,基于耕地資源價(jià)值內(nèi)涵重構(gòu),通過(guò)收益還原法、替代市場(chǎng)法等對(duì)耕地資源的分維度和綜合價(jià)值進(jìn)行了評(píng)估,確定了不同區(qū)域的耕地資源不同價(jià)值的理論補(bǔ)償值,結(jié)合地方財(cái)政承受力確定了實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并明晰了補(bǔ)償資金的來(lái)源渠道。在經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)木唧w方式方面,依據(jù)農(nóng)戶意愿調(diào)查中感知敏感的經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、補(bǔ)償方式、補(bǔ)償依據(jù)等方面確定農(nóng)戶認(rèn)可度高的形式。在經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)膮^(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)方面,依據(jù)“效率優(yōu)先”的原則優(yōu)化布局,開(kāi)展全面補(bǔ)償和重點(diǎn)補(bǔ)償,提高經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償資金的使用效率和耕地保護(hù)效率。研究構(gòu)建的思路和方法理清了耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償過(guò)程中地方政府和農(nóng)戶的利益關(guān)系,建立了耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償模式。研究區(qū)域作為西南丘陵地區(qū)的典型代表,其經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償方案在西南丘陵地區(qū)具有很強(qiáng)的示范意義和推廣價(jià)值。基于耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)膹?fù)雜性,在應(yīng)用時(shí)需要根據(jù)不同區(qū)域的不同情況進(jìn)行地方財(cái)政收支能力、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平等的修正。綜上所述,本文以耕地資源價(jià)值為切入點(diǎn),通過(guò)重構(gòu)耕地資源價(jià)值體系,核算靜態(tài)時(shí)點(diǎn)及連續(xù)時(shí)間序列的耕地資產(chǎn)價(jià)值變化,明確了耕地資源價(jià)值內(nèi)涵和耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償機(jī)制建立的必要性。采用農(nóng)戶調(diào)查了解耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償微觀主體農(nóng)戶的意愿訴求,將土地價(jià)值意識(shí)納入農(nóng)戶的補(bǔ)償參與意愿分析,增強(qiáng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償設(shè)計(jì)的針對(duì)性。基于耕地資源價(jià)值的補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)空間分異及補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、范圍的時(shí)間演變,設(shè)計(jì)了差異化、動(dòng)態(tài)化的耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償路徑。同時(shí),基于耕地保護(hù)補(bǔ)償效率的空間時(shí)序劃定及地方財(cái)政承受力的補(bǔ)償路徑調(diào)整,提高了耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)目尚行浴Ｗ罱K構(gòu)建了基于耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償范圍變化調(diào)控、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差異化設(shè)計(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償空間時(shí)序安排、經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償?shù)霓r(nóng)戶意愿調(diào)查的系統(tǒng)的耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償路徑框架,明確了各個(gè)關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)的技術(shù)和方法。本文的經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)修正和分區(qū)方法如何更好地服務(wù)于地方實(shí)際,案例研究如何更好地進(jìn)行理論提煉,補(bǔ)償重點(diǎn)區(qū)域如何聚焦才能更好地提升研究成果的精確性和針對(duì)性有待進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng),從而為政府耕地保護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償政策的制定提供更為科學(xué)的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the essence of land resources, non-renewable scarce resources, is an important means of production and livelihood, related to national food security, ecological security, social stability and sustainable social and economic development. In the past, the protection of cultivated land mainly relied on the compulsory protection of law and administrative restraints, lacked attention to the externality of cultivated land protection, lacked incentives from relevant subjects, and seriously frustrated the conscious protection of local governments and farmers. The Party Central Committee and the State Council have realized the importance of promoting the protection of cultivated land by establishing the incentive mechanism for the protection of cultivated land, and have issued policy documents to establish the incentive mechanism for the protection of cultivated land. Practice. Academic circles have launched a heated discussion on the economic compensation of cultivated land protection. There have been studies on the large-scale compensation of cultivated land protection at the national or provincial level, or the compensation of cultivated land protection for the micro-protection subject at the peasant household level. There are few perspectives on different levels of collective area and peasant household, and no economic compensation for cultivated land protection has been formed. The theoretical system and research paradigm of multi-level and multi-factor system.The important theoretical basis of mechanism design,the value connotation of cultivated land resources is unclear,and there are great differences in which part of cultivated land value should be compensated.The exploration of compensation path is mainly in the theoretical level,lacking of regional differences and social and economic development. Based on the above-mentioned background, this study takes Chongqing as an example, which is a city-countryside co-existence pilot area, a big city and a big rural area, with sharp contradiction between human and land. It uses structural equation model, spatial data analysis, spatial econometric analysis, entropy weight improvement TOPSIS and CA-Ma to analyze the cultivated land assets. By using the rkov model and other methods, this paper explores the rational path of economic compensation for cultivated land protection from three aspects: the willingness of economic compensation for cultivated land protection, the standard of economic compensation, and the time sequence of economic compensation space. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The real quantity of cultivated land resources in China is declining continuously, and the value of cultivated land resources is seriously distorted. It is urgent to establish a compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection.Although the national cultivated land resources stock is large, the per capita occupancy is small, the stock and per capita occupancy continue to decline.In 2013, the national cultivated land resources stock was 135.1634 million hm2, and the per capita cultivated land resources occupancy was only 0.099 hm2.Since 1998, the value of cultivated land resources in China has increased continuously. In 2007, 2010, the value stock in 2013 was 158.45 trillion yuan, 165.56 trillion yuan, 185.41 trillion yuan, 249.55 trillion yuan, 393.32 trillion yuan, 438.97 trillion yuan, respectively. The value flow of cultivated land resources in 1998-2013 was 280.52 trillion yuan. The value of the right to development increased the most, followed by the strategic value of national food security. The comparison of theoretical value and market value of source shows that the theoretical value of cultivated land is far greater than the market value of cultivated land in the same period. The gap mainly comes from the value of development right with externality and public goods characteristics, the strategic value of national food security and ecological value. The increase of cultivated land resource value is not only driven by the decrease of cultivated land quantity, but also by the increase of population, the change of non-agricultural land demand, the intervention of government and the change of social economic level. Only by manifesting the true value of cultivated land resources and giving subsidies to cultivated land protection subjects can we better mobilize the initiative and enthusiasm of protection subjects to protect cultivated land. (2) In different regions, the willingness of different types of farmers to protect cultivated land and compensate for cultivated land is different. The willingness of farmers to participate in compensation for cultivated land protection is perceived by the change of cultivated land value, public awareness, and farmers. Farmers'perception of farmland value was low in the 1980s, and the dimension of cognition was relatively single. The highest degree of recognition was the agricultural production value of farmland. In the 1990s, the importance of cultivated land was weakened, the farmers'dependence on employment and old-age security was reduced, the value of the right to development was gradually valued, and the farmers' willingness to protect cultivated land was weakened. Farmers'willingness to protect arable land has risen since 1990's. There are significant differences among different types of farmers in different regions. The structural equation model of their willingness to participate in arable land protection compensation shows that farmers' characteristics, public awareness and farmer's arable land price are different. The perception of value change and preference have significant effects on farmers'willingness to participate in compensation. Among them, the number of labor force, the perception of agricultural production value change, the recognition of farmland importance and the economic compensation standard for farmland protection have the best explanations for these four types of exogenous latent variables respectively. Farmers'perception of farmland value changes is negatively correlated with their willingness to participate in compensation, indicating that farmers' willingness to protect farmland will be strong even without compensation when they perceive farmland value increases. Participants should respect the wishes of farmers and take the protection of cultivated land and the benefit of farmers as the premise. Through extensive publicity to enhance farmers'awareness of the importance of cultivated land, the grim situation and the policy of cultivated land protection, a reasonable compensation standard for cultivated land protection should be worked out. On the basis of government's ability to pay and public opinion, cash and insurance compensation should be adopted, supplemented by policy and technology and other diversified compensation methods to increase the flexibility of cultivated land protection compensation. The main grain producing areas, the basic farmland protection areas and the urban-rural fringe are the key areas of cultivated land protection incentives, while achieving better protection of high-quality cultivated land. (3) Based on the comprehensive price of cultivated land resources. The value of cultivated land comprehensive value compensation in the whole city takes the main urban area as the core area, decreases outward along the circle layer, and reaches the northeast of Chongqing, southeast of Chongqing to the lowest. On the whole, it presents the spatial pattern of "two circles and two wings, high in the West and low in the east". The compensation value of Heqianjiang region is higher than that of surrounding counties. The spatial correlation analysis shows that the compensation standard of cultivated land protection has significant positive correlation in space, that is, the counties with high compensation standard are adjacent to those with high compensation standard, and the counties with low compensation standard are adjacent to those with low compensation standard. The global Moran's I values of various compensation standards ranged from 0.4025 to 0.8519, which had a strong spatial correlation. In order to improve the feasibility of compensation, the elastic interval of compensation standards for cultivated land protection was established. The development right value of cultivated land resources is the lower limit of cultivated land protection compensation, the non-market value is the middle value of cultivated land protection compensation, and the comprehensive value is the upper limit of cultivated land protection compensation. The econometric analysis of farmer behavior on the spatial differentiation of cultivated land protection compensation standard shows that there is an obvious spatial agglomeration relationship between population factors and the spatial differentiation of cultivated land protection compensation standard. This spatial agglomeration feature also shows the spatial relationship between traffic location factors and cultivated land protection compensation standards. Therefore, the construction of the economic compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection should be based on the scientific evaluation of the value of regional cultivated land resources, combined with regional reality, formulate the elastic range of the differential economic compensation standard for cultivated land protection, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of the economic compensation for cultivated land protection. (4) According to the economic compensation efficiency of cultivated land protection, the cultivated land protection compensation should be defined. According to the cultivated land construction load, the priority of economic compensation for cultivated land protection in 37 districts and counties in Chongqing was determined, and the compensation for cultivated land protection in Chongqing was divided into three regions: priority compensation area, secondary compensation area and so on. The three regions are 12, 14 and 11 counties, accounting for 32.36%, 37.14% and 30.50% of the total cultivated land area of the city. There are significant differences among the three regions in terms of cultivated land resources endowment, regional development positioning and the support of constructive compensation for municipal cultivated land. In the time sequence of economic compensation for cultivated land protection, the first pilot areas and pilot areas of economic compensation for cultivated land protection were set up respectively, and the first and second compensation areas were mostly urban suburban areas with better location, and cash plus insurance was available for farmers. Compensation should be given priority to, appropriate allocation of arable land protection, and preferential credit policies for modern agriculture; while some counties in the secondary compensation area and the critical compensation area are mostly counties far from the economic, social and political center of Chongqing, incentive compensation should be mainly cash plus insurance compensation, and appropriate allocation of technical compensation to improve the agricultural "hematopoiesis" in the reserve construction area. (5) The economic compensation ideas and key technical methods of cultivated land protection constructed in this study are reasonable and feasible, but they should be revised in different regions. The economic compensation ideas and key technical methods are proved to be reasonable and feasible in Jiangjin District of Chongqing. In terms of economic compensation scope of cultivated land protection, land use change is dynamically monitored by remote sensing interpretation technology and GIS technology, and economic compensation scope of cultivated land protection in future years is predicted by CA-Markov model to realize cultivated land protection economy. In terms of the economic compensation standard for cultivated land protection, based on the reconstruction of the connotation of cultivated land resources value, the income reduction method is adopted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F323.211
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本文編號(hào)：2190632