【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比重持續(xù)增加,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)也越來(lái)越大,但與國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家比較,仍有較大的差距。如何發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè),最大程度地發(fā)揮服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用,對(duì)處于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型關(guān)鍵時(shí)期的中國(guó)來(lái)說是一個(gè)急需解決的問題。批發(fā)零售業(yè)作為第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的重要組成部分,它連接著生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi),是商品流通產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的中間環(huán)節(jié),承擔(dān)著市場(chǎng)機(jī)制資源配置的重要任務(wù),其自身的發(fā)展有利于壯大第三產(chǎn)業(yè)、擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式,發(fā)展批發(fā)零售業(yè)已成為推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)換、實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)提質(zhì)增效的一個(gè)有效途徑。研究批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),將有助于國(guó)家制定合理的促進(jìn)批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展的政策措施,使批發(fā)零售業(yè)得到快速發(fā)展。本文借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)的研究成果,從相關(guān)概念和理論出發(fā),采用我國(guó)1981年—2013年數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解等計(jì)量方法對(duì)批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,同時(shí)引入菲德模型研究批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的間接貢獻(xiàn)。研究表明:我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與批發(fā)零售業(yè)之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,且批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系;二者之間存在雙向因果關(guān)系,即批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的格蘭杰原因,反過來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也是批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展的格蘭杰原因;批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的間接貢獻(xiàn)大于其直接貢獻(xiàn)。作為對(duì)比,本文研究了美國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)中美兩國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間均存在長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的間接貢獻(xiàn)均大于其直接貢獻(xiàn),批發(fā)零售業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素的邊際生產(chǎn)率均小于其他部門生產(chǎn)要素的邊際生產(chǎn)率。相比美國(guó),我國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的直接貢獻(xiàn)和間接貢獻(xiàn)均低于美國(guó)。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,本文指出我國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)存在的若干問題,并提出相應(yīng)的建議,如重視批發(fā)零售業(yè)在城鄉(xiāng)間的均衡發(fā)展、加快批發(fā)零售業(yè)信息化發(fā)展、提高從業(yè)人員素質(zhì)、樹立現(xiàn)代批發(fā)零售理念引導(dǎo)批發(fā)零售企業(yè)向連鎖化、集團(tuán)化、集群化發(fā)展等,以期為我國(guó)制定合理的批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展政策提供理論支持。本文的創(chuàng)新為:引入菲德模型分析批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的間接貢獻(xiàn),使得分析更全面,保證了研究的科學(xué)性和結(jié)論的可靠性;本文研究了美國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),通過對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)的不足。本文不足之處:僅僅研究了批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),沒有研究批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)就業(yè)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、收入、消費(fèi)者福利的影響,也就是沒有擴(kuò)展到對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的貢獻(xiàn);僅僅研究了批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他部門整體的外溢作用,而沒有研究與某個(gè)具體的部門的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系。本文研究?jī)?nèi)容主要分為七章。第一章為緒論,主要介紹了本文研究背景、文獻(xiàn)綜述、意義、思路和方法以及本文的創(chuàng)新與不足。第二章在界定批發(fā)零售業(yè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和菲德模型概念的基礎(chǔ)上,介紹經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論和流通經(jīng)濟(jì)理論。第三章介紹改革開放后我國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)的發(fā)展情況。第四章首先從理論上分析了批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用,之后構(gòu)建了"經(jīng)濟(jì)—批發(fā)零售業(yè)"模型,采用計(jì)量分析方法將我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)用于模型,對(duì)批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的直接貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),借鑒Feder模型的思想來(lái)分析批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的間接貢獻(xiàn)。第五章分析了美國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的直接貢獻(xiàn)和間接貢獻(xiàn),并對(duì)中美做了對(duì)比分析。第六章分析我國(guó)批發(fā)零售業(yè)存在的問題并提出改善批發(fā)零售業(yè)進(jìn)而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的建議。最后—章對(duì)本文的內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了總結(jié)并介紹了未來(lái)的研究方向。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's economy, the proportion of the third industry in the national economy continues to increase, and its contribution to economic growth is becoming more and more large, but compared with the developed countries, there is still a big gap. How to develop the service industry to maximize the role of the service industry to the economic growth, and to be in the key to the economic structure transformation As an important part of the third industry, the wholesale and retail industry, as an important part of the industry, connects the production and consumption, is the middle link of the commodity circulation industry chain, and bears the important task of the allocation of resources in the market mechanism. Its own development is beneficial to the expansion of the third industry, the expansion of domestic demand and the optimization of the economic structure. The transformation of the mode of economic growth and the development of wholesale and retail industry have become an effective way to promote the dynamic transformation of economic growth and achieve the efficiency of the economy. The study of the contribution of the wholesale and retail industry to economic growth will help the state to formulate reasonable policies and measures to promote the development of wholesale and retail industry and make the wholesale and retail industry develop rapidly. Based on the relevant concepts and theories, using the data from 1981 to 2013 in China, using the relevant concepts and theories, the paper uses the data from 1981 to 2013 in China, using the cointegration test, the Grainger causality test, the impulse response function and the variance decomposition to carry out an empirical study on the relationship between the development of wholesale and retail industry and the economic growth. At the same time, fad model is introduced to study the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth. The study shows that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between China's economy and wholesale and retail industry, and there is a positive correlation between the development of wholesale and retail industry and economic growth, and there is a two-way causal relationship between the two, that is, the development of wholesale and retail industry is our country. The Grainger reason of economic growth, in turn, economic growth is also the Grainger reason for the development of wholesale and retail industry; the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth is greater than its direct contribution. As a contrast, this paper studies the contribution of American wholesale and retail to economic growth, and finds that both the wholesale and retail trade and economic growth in the United States and China are all deposited. In the long-term equilibrium relationship, the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth is greater than its direct contribution. The marginal productivity of the production factors of wholesale and retail is less than the marginal productivity of other sectors of production. Compared with the United States, the direct contribution and indirect contribution of our wholesale and retail industry to economic growth are lower than that of the United States. This paper points out some problems in China's wholesale and retail industry and puts forward some suggestions, such as the balanced development of wholesale and retail industry in urban and rural areas, accelerating the development of the wholesale and retail industry, improving the quality of the employees, and setting up a modern wholesale and retail concept to guide the wholesale and retail enterprises to chain, collectivize and cluster. It provides theoretical support for the development of a reasonable wholesale and retail development policy in China. The innovation of this paper is: introducing the fad model to analyze the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth, making the analysis more comprehensive, ensuring the scientific nature of the research and the reliability of the conclusions. The insufficiency of the wholesale and retail industry in China is found. This paper is inadequacies: only studies the contribution of wholesale and retail to economic growth, and does not study the impact of wholesale and retail development on employment, industrial structure, income, and consumer welfare, that is, the contribution to economic development, and only the wholesale and retail trade is studied for the national economy. The article is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background, literature review, significance, ideas and methods as well as the innovation and lack of this article. The second chapter defines the wholesale and retail industry, economic growth and the development of this article. On the basis of the concept of fad model, we introduce the theory of economic growth and the theory of circulation economy. The third chapter introduces the development of the wholesale and retail industry in China after the reform and opening up. The fourth chapter analyzes the promotion of the wholesale and retail industry to the economic growth in theory, and then constructs the model of "economy wholesale and retail", and adopts the econometric analysis method. The empirical data of China's economic experience is applied to the model, and the direct contribution of the wholesale and retail industry to the economic growth is empirically tested. The indirect contribution of the wholesale and retail industry to economic growth is analyzed with the idea of Feder model. The fifth chapter analyses the direct contribution and indirect contribution of the American wholesale and retail industry to the economic growth, and has made a study on China and the United States. The sixth chapter analyses the problems existing in China's wholesale and retail industry and puts forward suggestions to improve the wholesale and retail industry to promote economic growth. The last chapter summarizes the content of this article and introduces the future research direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F724;F124.1

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