本文選題：貨幣政策 + 空間效應(yīng)��； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策是國(guó)家進(jìn)行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控的核心手段,對(duì)政府宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)節(jié)發(fā)揮著重要作用,關(guān)于貨幣政策的效應(yīng)研究長(zhǎng)期以來都受到國(guó)內(nèi)外眾多學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注。就目前研究現(xiàn)狀來說,主要是基于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的視角,以各地區(qū)同質(zhì)性為假設(shè)前提,通過不同的貨幣政策工具及傳導(dǎo)途徑來研究貨幣政策的有效性。但是,對(duì)貨幣政策區(qū)域因素即貨幣政策空間效應(yīng)的研究仍有較大空白。自中國(guó)改革開放推行市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)以來,一直在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)實(shí)施高度集中統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的快速增長(zhǎng)及經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷調(diào)整,各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、金融體系建設(shè)等方面的差異逐步顯現(xiàn),而這些差距及差異又直接關(guān)系到貨幣政策效果的發(fā)揮,貨幣政策的空間效應(yīng)凸顯,造成了貨幣政策的實(shí)施力度和目標(biāo)控制難以精準(zhǔn)把握。因此,研究掌握貨幣政策的空間效應(yīng)對(duì)于貨幣政策的制定、實(shí)施、評(píng)價(jià)、調(diào)整等具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。不僅有利于從空間層面探尋貨幣政策效果減損的深層原因;而且有助于政策制定者綜合考量多種政策工具,促進(jìn)地區(qū)健康發(fā)展。首先,本文運(yùn)用最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)的相關(guān)判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn),對(duì)中國(guó)貨幣政策是否存在空間效應(yīng)進(jìn)行初步檢驗(yàn),從理論上得出中國(guó)存在貨幣政策效應(yīng)的空間差異。其次,運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和實(shí)證分析對(duì)貨幣政策的空間效應(yīng)展開論證,綜合考察了時(shí)滯的地區(qū)差異及政策效果的地區(qū)差異兩方面內(nèi)容。研究結(jié)果表明:從時(shí)滯差異角度,各地區(qū)對(duì)貨幣政策的反應(yīng)時(shí)滯存在地域差異,東部時(shí)滯最短,政策效果最好,中、西部居中,東北部時(shí)滯最長(zhǎng);從地區(qū)差異角度,構(gòu)造31個(gè)省份的變系數(shù)固定效應(yīng)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型展開分析,全國(guó)高度統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至各個(gè)省份后,會(huì)對(duì)各省份經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行帶來方向各異、程度各異的影響,貨幣政策在空間層面具有顯著差異性,貨幣政策對(duì)于東部地區(qū)能夠起到更好的政策效果,但對(duì)東北地區(qū)產(chǎn)生負(fù)向影響,對(duì)中部地區(qū)的山西和河南產(chǎn)生最為嚴(yán)重的負(fù)向作用。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文從經(jīng)濟(jì)金融環(huán)境、貨幣供應(yīng)量、政策渠道及微觀主體行為四個(gè)角度分析了引起貨幣政策地區(qū)差異的原因。最后,結(jié)合貨幣政策帶來的社會(huì)成本——區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的擴(kuò)大,提出了在制定政策時(shí)應(yīng)適時(shí)搭配具有針對(duì)性的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、金融政策等宏觀調(diào)控手段,不斷完善金融落后地區(qū)的金融體系,展開區(qū)域差別化的貨幣政策工具探索等政策建議,逐步縮小貨幣政策空間效應(yīng)帶來的問題。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is the core means of national macroeconomic regulation and control, and plays an important role in the regulation of government macro-economy. The study on the effect of monetary policy has long been widely concerned by many scholars at home and abroad. As far as the present research situation is concerned, it mainly studies the effectiveness of monetary policy through different monetary policy tools and transmission channels, based on the macro-economic perspective and taking the homogeneity of different regions as the premise. However, there is still a large gap in the study of the regional factors of monetary policy, I. E. the spatial effect of monetary policy. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China has implemented a highly centralized and unified monetary policy throughout the country. With the rapid growth of economic aggregate and the constant adjustment of economic structure, the differences in economic level, industrial structure, financial system construction and so on gradually appear in various regions, and these differences and differences are directly related to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The spatial effect of monetary policy is prominent, which makes it difficult to accurately grasp the enforcement and target control of monetary policy. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study and master the spatial effect of monetary policy for the formulation, implementation, evaluation and adjustment of monetary policy. It is not only helpful to probe into the deep reasons of the effect of monetary policy impairment from the spatial level, but also helpful for the policy makers to consider various policy tools comprehensively and promote the healthy development of the region. First of all, this paper makes a preliminary test on the spatial effect of China's monetary policy by using the relevant criteria of the optimal currency area, and draws a conclusion that there is a spatial difference in the monetary policy effect in China. Secondly, the spatial effect of monetary policy is demonstrated by statistical analysis and empirical analysis. The results show that: from the point of time delay difference, there are regional differences in regional response time delay to monetary policy, the eastern region has the shortest delay, the policy effect is the best, the middle, the west is the center, and the northeast is the longest. The data model of variable coefficient fixed effect panel of 31 provinces is constructed and analyzed. After the highly unified monetary policy is transmitted to each province, it will bring different directions and different degrees of influence to the economic operation of each province. Monetary policy has significant difference in spatial level, monetary policy can play a better policy effect on the eastern region, but it has a negative impact on the Northeast region, and the most serious negative effect on Shanxi and Henan in the central region. On this basis, this paper analyzes the causes of regional differences in monetary policy from the four angles of economic and financial environment, money supply, policy channels and microcosmic behavior. Finally, combined with the social cost brought by monetary policy-the widening of regional economic gap, it is proposed that the policy should be accompanied by targeted industrial policies, financial policies, and other macroeconomic control measures. We should constantly improve the financial system in the backward regions, explore regional differential monetary policy tools, and gradually reduce the problems caused by the spatial effects of monetary policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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