基于熵權(quán)的火電廠項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-15 15:23
本文選題:火電廠 + 融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn); 參考:《山西大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文
【摘要】:近幾年來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速很快,電力的消費(fèi)與需求旺盛,為支持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,保障人民日常工作和生活需要,電力建設(shè)任務(wù)緊迫而艱巨,每年都會(huì)有大批電廠項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行建設(shè)施工,其中以火電廠項(xiàng)目居多。今年年初,中國(guó)火力發(fā)電網(wǎng)對(duì)2016至2018年間,全國(guó)擬在建的火電廠項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì),統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,全國(guó)將會(huì)新建592個(gè)火電廠項(xiàng)目。對(duì)于建設(shè)工期長(zhǎng),投資金額巨大的火電廠項(xiàng)目來(lái)說(shuō),項(xiàng)目融資形式相較于傳統(tǒng)融資形式來(lái)說(shuō),不失為一種行之有效的融資方式,在電廠融資過(guò)程中,會(huì)受到來(lái)自于政治、信用、生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)、金融等多方面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的影響,因此對(duì)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別和評(píng)價(jià)顯得尤為重要。本文以深圳B火電廠為例,分析了電廠在融資各階段中將會(huì)面臨的各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,建立了融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)體系,引入熵權(quán)思想確定各級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)權(quán)重,結(jié)合模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型(Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model),對(duì)深圳B火電廠項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行客觀評(píng)價(jià),并根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)的最終結(jié)果列出項(xiàng)目為規(guī)避各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)采取的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。深圳B電廠項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)介于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一般之間,總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平偏低,說(shuō)明項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)安排的融資結(jié)構(gòu)比較合理,通過(guò)一系列諸如政府支持、確保原材料供應(yīng)、保證項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)品銷售、分擔(dān)利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、由銀行提供履約擔(dān)保等措施,有效地降低了融資過(guò)程中面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。深圳B電廠融資項(xiàng)目是一個(gè)典型項(xiàng)目融資案例,該項(xiàng)目融資面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)雖有著自身的特點(diǎn),但也存在多數(shù)項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的共性,對(duì)深圳B電廠融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別,并作出評(píng)價(jià),同時(shí)列出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避措施,有利于其它相同或類似項(xiàng)目,在設(shè)計(jì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)和識(shí)別、規(guī)避融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面進(jìn)行學(xué)習(xí)和借鑒。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economic growth rate of our country is very fast, and the consumption and demand of electric power are exuberant. In order to support the economic development and ensure the daily work and living needs of the people, the task of electric power construction is urgent and arduous. Every year, a large number of power plant projects are constructed and constructed.Most of them are thermal power plant projects.At the beginning of this year, China's thermal power network counted the number of thermal power plants planned to be built nationwide between 2016 and 2018, according to statistics showing that 592 new thermal power plants will be built across the country.For the thermal power plant project with long construction period and huge investment amount, the project financing form is an effective financing method compared with the traditional financing form. In the financing process of the power plant, it will come from politics and credit.It is very important to identify and evaluate the project financing risk because of the influence of many risk factors, such as production and management, finance and so on.Taking Shenzhen B thermal power plant as an example, this paper analyzes the various risk factors that power plant will face in each stage of financing, establishes the evaluation system of financing risk index, and introduces entropy weight to determine the weight of risk index at all levels.Combined with fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation model, the project financing risk of Shenzhen B thermal power plant is evaluated objectively. According to the final result of evaluation, the countermeasures taken by the project to avoid all kinds of risks are listed.The project financing risk index of Shenzhen B Power Plant is between the lower risk and the general risk, and the overall risk level is relatively low. This shows that the financing structure of the project design arrangement is more reasonable. Through a series of government support, it ensures the supply of raw materials.Such measures as ensuring the sale of project products, sharing interest rate risk and providing performance guarantee by banks can effectively reduce the risk in the process of financing.The financing project of Shenzhen B Power Plant is a typical project financing case. Although the risks faced by the project financing have their own characteristics, they also have the commonness of most project financing risks. The financing risks of Shenzhen B Power Plant are identified and evaluated.At the same time, listed the corresponding risk aversion measures, which is beneficial to other similar projects, in the design of financing structure and identification, avoid financing risk for study and reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:山西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2016
【分類號(hào)】:F426.61;F406.7
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條
1 黃瓊;楊玉寶;;基于熵權(quán)的高速公路項(xiàng)目融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊評(píng)價(jià)[J];昆明理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2015年01期
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