本文選題：碳排放　切入點(diǎn)：農(nóng)業(yè)　出處：《河北地質(zhì)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：河北省是華北地區(qū)重要農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)基地,也是我國(guó)糧食大省之一。近年來(lái)由于全球氣候變暖與環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重,碳排放問(wèn)題成為各國(guó)的關(guān)注點(diǎn)。農(nóng)業(yè)與工業(yè)相比在降低碳排放上有更多的正外部性,降低農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放有利于減少農(nóng)田污染,保持土壤肥力,保障食品安全等。近年來(lái)河北省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放也隨之逐年增長(zhǎng),但是耕地面積多年來(lái)保持穩(wěn)定,因此農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)是建立在農(nóng)藥、化肥等物質(zhì)的過(guò)量使用基礎(chǔ)上的,農(nóng)業(yè)污染問(wèn)題導(dǎo)致土壤肥力下降,這種農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展模式不具有可持續(xù)性。因此從低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)角度上計(jì)算河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放量并分析影響農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的影響因素和未來(lái)碳排放趨勢(shì),根據(jù)分析結(jié)果有針對(duì)性地制定提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率且降低農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的措施,對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)變河北省農(nóng)業(yè)目前高投入高排放模式,提高農(nóng)民收入和實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文的具體研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:首先采用2005-2013年河北省農(nóng)業(yè)相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),基于IPCC溫室氣體清單法構(gòu)建農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放核算框架,對(duì)河北省農(nóng)業(yè)歷年碳排放狀況進(jìn)行計(jì)算;其次構(gòu)造農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放恒等式,應(yīng)用LMDI因素分解法對(duì)河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素進(jìn)行分解,找出河北省農(nóng)業(yè)主要碳排放驅(qū)動(dòng)因素;再次應(yīng)用灰色系統(tǒng)模型對(duì)河北省農(nóng)業(yè)未來(lái)碳排放進(jìn)行估計(jì),為河北省農(nóng)業(yè)減排政策提供借鑒;最后結(jié)合河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放特征與問(wèn)題提出適合降低河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的措施。通過(guò)研究本文主要形成了以下結(jié)論:(1)河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放強(qiáng)度(不計(jì)稻田碳排放)在國(guó)內(nèi)處于較高水平,碳足跡逐年降低;(2)河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的主要碳源為農(nóng)用機(jī)械與化肥,影響農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放變化的主要碳源為農(nóng)用機(jī)械;(3)影響河北省農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平(正效應(yīng))與能源強(qiáng)度(負(fù)效應(yīng)),正效應(yīng)的整體影響略大于負(fù)效應(yīng);降低化肥使用頻率與化肥使用強(qiáng)度是降低農(nóng)業(yè)碳排放效應(yīng)的主要途徑;(4)發(fā)展精準(zhǔn)農(nóng)業(yè)能有效降低碳排放水平。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is an important agricultural production base in North China and one of the largest grain provinces in China. In recent years, the global warming and environmental pollution problems have become more and more serious. The issue of carbon emissions has become a national concern. Agriculture has more positive externalities in reducing carbon emissions than industry, and reducing agricultural carbon emissions can help reduce farm pollution and maintain soil fertility. In recent years, the output of agricultural products in Hebei Province has continued to increase, and agricultural carbon emissions have also increased year by year, but the area of cultivated land has remained stable for many years, so the increase in agricultural production is based on pesticides. Based on the excessive use of fertilizers and other substances, the problem of agricultural pollution leads to a decline in soil fertility. This agricultural development model is not sustainable. Therefore, from the perspective of low-carbon economy, we calculate the agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province and analyze the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions and the future carbon emission trends. According to the results of the analysis, the measures to improve the efficiency of agricultural production and reduce agricultural carbon emissions have been formulated, which will change the current pattern of high investment and high emission in agriculture in Hebei Province. It is of practical significance to increase farmers' income and realize the sustainable development of agriculture. The specific research contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, based on the IPCC greenhouse gas inventory method, the agricultural carbon emission accounting framework is constructed by using the agricultural statistics data from 2005 to 2013 in Hebei Province. The carbon emission status of agriculture in Hebei Province was calculated. Secondly, the agricultural carbon emission identity was constructed, and the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province were decomposed by LMDI factor decomposition method, and the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province were found out. Thirdly, the grey system model is used to estimate the future carbon emission of agriculture in Hebei Province, which provides a reference for the agricultural emission reduction policy of Hebei Province. Finally, according to the characteristics and problems of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province, the paper puts forward some suitable measures for reducing agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province. Through the research, the following conclusions are formed: 1) the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province (excluding the carbon emissions from rice fields); At a relatively high level in the country, The main carbon sources of agricultural carbon emission in Hebei Province are agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizer. The main carbon source affecting the carbon emission of agriculture is agricultural machinery. The main driving factors influencing agricultural carbon emission in Hebei Province are the level of economic development (positive effect) and energy intensity (negative effect). The overall effect of positive effect is slightly greater than that of negative effect. Reducing the frequency and intensity of chemical fertilizer use is the main way to reduce the carbon emission effect in agriculture. (4) the development of precision agriculture can effectively reduce the level of carbon emissions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北地質(zhì)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F327

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本文編號(hào)：1665917