【摘要】：火災(zāi)事故極易造成群死群傷,通過事故統(tǒng)計,造成建筑物火災(zāi)事故的直接原因大部分是火災(zāi)隱患,而我國目前對火災(zāi)隱患的分級管控機制不到位,法律法規(guī)對火災(zāi)隱患分級缺乏理論性和定量指導(dǎo),監(jiān)督檢查人員憑借經(jīng)驗,容易造成火災(zāi)隱患整改不當。為了火災(zāi)隱患科學化治理,須建立科學的火災(zāi)隱患分類分級方法,按照火災(zāi)隱患致因風險對火災(zāi)隱患進行分級管控分級治理,達到及時排查及時治理的目的。本文基于風險角度,對建筑物火災(zāi)隱患進行分類分級,創(chuàng)造性提出基于火災(zāi)隱患和激發(fā)因素的建筑物火災(zāi)隱患致因風險可能性分級方法,并通過不同類別建筑物賦初始值并根據(jù)實際情況選取指標進行修正的方法來確定火災(zāi)事故后果嚴重度,進而求得火災(zāi)隱患等級。本文具體從以下幾個方面開展:(1)從火災(zāi)隱患和事故隱患定義入手,確定建筑物火災(zāi)隱患判定方法。分析事故致因理論和火災(zāi)發(fā)生與發(fā)展過程,建立火災(zāi)發(fā)生與發(fā)展事故模型,并繪制火災(zāi)發(fā)生與發(fā)展過程事故樹。提出基于火災(zāi)隱患和激發(fā)因素的火災(zāi)隱患分類分級方法。(2)確定火災(zāi)發(fā)生與發(fā)展兩個事故過程的可能性影響因素和事故結(jié)構(gòu)函數(shù)。根據(jù)火災(zāi)發(fā)生與發(fā)展事故模型,得到火災(zāi)事故發(fā)生與發(fā)展的可能性影響因素為火災(zāi)隱患和激發(fā)因素。分析隱患在火災(zāi)發(fā)生與發(fā)展過程中的作用,將火災(zāi)分為事前隱患和事中隱患。(3)確定各影響因素的取值范圍及等級。用隱患暴露概率對事前隱患和事中隱患進行可能性等級確定,選取8-12小時和12-24小時運營制建筑物為對象計算得到了隱患暴露概率取值范圍和等級;通過選取關(guān)鍵詞和矩陣分析法,求得激發(fā)因素概率取值范圍和等級。(4)確定火災(zāi)事故取值范圍及等級。對不同建筑物進行分類,通過不同建筑物賦不同初始值,并選取人員傷亡、財產(chǎn)損失和停產(chǎn)停業(yè)三個關(guān)鍵指標對初始值進行修正的方法確定火災(zāi)事故后果取值范圍及等級。(5)確定基于火災(zāi)隱患和激發(fā)因素的火災(zāi)隱患等級。根據(jù)初始事故和最終事故的可能性取值范圍及火災(zāi)事故后果取值范圍,通過風險分析方法,計算具體火災(zāi)隱患的致因風險,通過致因風險的取值范圍確定火災(zāi)隱患的等級。(6)實證研究。將本文提出的方法應(yīng)用于某建筑物,得到了實質(zhì)性效果。
[Abstract]:Fire accidents are easy to cause mass deaths and injuries. Through accident statistics, the direct cause of building fire accidents is mostly hidden fire hazards, but the classification control mechanism of fire hazards is not in place in our country. The laws and regulations lack theoretical and quantitative guidance for the classification of fire hidden dangers, and the supervisors and inspectors rely on their experience to easily cause the fire hazards to be corrected improperly. In order to control the hidden fire danger scientifically, it is necessary to establish a scientific classification and classification method for the hidden fire hazard, and to manage the hidden fire hazard according to the risk caused by the hidden fire hazard, so as to achieve the aim of timely investigation and treatment. Based on the risk perspective, this paper classifies and classifies the hidden fire hazards of buildings, and creatively puts forward a classification method of the possibility of fire hazards caused by building fire hazards based on fire hazards and motivating factors. The severity of fire accident consequence is determined by the method of setting initial value of different kinds of buildings and selecting indexes according to the actual situation, and the grade of fire hidden danger is obtained. In this paper, the following aspects are carried out: (1) starting with the definition of hidden fire hazard and accident hidden danger, the method of judging building fire hazard is determined. This paper analyzes the theory of accident cause and the process of fire occurrence and development, establishes the fire occurrence and development accident model, and draws the accident tree of fire occurrence and development process. A classification and classification method of fire hazards based on fire hazards and fire excitation factors is proposed. (2) the possibility factors and accident structure functions of fire occurrence and development are determined. According to the fire occurrence and development accident model, the possibility factors of fire accident occurrence and development are fire hidden danger and excitation factor. This paper analyzes the role of hidden danger in the process of fire occurrence and development, and divides the fire hazard into prior hidden danger and hidden danger. (3) to determine the range and grade of each influencing factor. Using the probability of hidden danger exposure to determine the probability of hidden danger and hidden danger in the event, 8-12 hours and 12-24 hours of operation of the building as the object of the calculation of the hidden danger exposure probability value range and grade; By selecting key words and matrix analysis, the range and grade of the probability of the excitation factor are obtained. (4) the range and grade of the fire accident are determined. Classify different buildings, assign different initial values to different buildings, and select casualties, Three key indexes of property loss and shutdown are used to correct the initial value to determine the range and grade of fire accident consequence. (5) to determine the grade of fire hazard based on fire hidden danger and excitation factor. According to the range of the possibility of the initial accident and the final accident and the range of the fire accident consequence, the cause risk of the specific hidden fire hazard is calculated by the method of risk analysis. The grade of fire hazard is determined by the range of risk. (6) empirical study. The method proposed in this paper is applied to a certain building, and the substantial effect is obtained.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU998.1

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本文編號：2228895