本文選題：混沌理論 + 鄰近點�。� 參考：《土木建筑與環(huán)境工程》2016年S2期

【摘要】：基于混沌理論的局域法是目前較先進(jìn)的預(yù)測技術(shù),對于非線性、非平穩(wěn)特征較強的城市日供水系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測,通�；煦缇钟蚍ǜm用。混沌局域法的日供水量預(yù)測,最重要的就是對歷史信息的利用,即對鄰近點的選擇和利用,但在運用混沌局域法對城市日供水量預(yù)測時卻鮮有人考慮鄰近點選取問題,或僅考慮鄰近點個數(shù)與鄰近點位置中的一個,很少沒有人將2種情況綜合考慮的研究。據(jù)此,運用BIC信息準(zhǔn)則和衰減系數(shù)相結(jié)合對相空間重構(gòu)進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)挖掘,優(yōu)選混沌局域法的鄰近點,并用該模型對實際水廠日供水量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。結(jié)果表明,運用該方法能顯著提高日供水量預(yù)測精度,預(yù)測平均絕對誤差僅為1.06%,說明該綜合法是可行的。
[Abstract]:The local method based on chaos theory is an advanced prediction technique at present. It is more suitable for the prediction of urban daily water supply system with nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics.The most important thing in forecasting daily water supply by chaotic local method is the use of historical information, that is, the selection and utilization of adjacent points. However, few people consider the selection of adjacent points when using chaotic local method to predict daily water supply in cities.Or consider only one of the number of adjacent points and the location of the adjacent points, and few studies have taken the two cases into account.Based on this, the data mining of phase space reconstruction is carried out by using BIC information criterion and attenuation coefficient, and the adjacent points of chaos local method are selected optimally, and the daily water supply quantity of actual water plant is predicted by the model.The results show that the prediction accuracy of daily water supply can be improved significantly by using this method, and the average absolute error of prediction is only 1.06, which shows that the synthetic method is feasible.
【作者單位】： 昆明理工大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：昆明理工大學(xué)2016年學(xué)生課外學(xué)術(shù)科技創(chuàng)新基金(2015YB025) 國家自然科學(xué)基金(51608242) 云南省人才培養(yǎng)計劃項目(14118943)
【分類號】：TU991.31;O415.5

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