【摘要】：當今世界的開放程度日趨加大,各國之間的經(jīng)貿(mào)外來日趨頻繁,對外貿(mào)易在國民經(jīng)濟中的地位與日俱增。匯率作為對外貿(mào)易交往的價格標尺,其變動對一個國家或地區(qū)的外貿(mào)影響是巨大的。改革開放以來,河南省對外貿(mào)易取得了長足的發(fā)展。當前國家正在大力推進“一帶一路”建設,地處中原腹地的河南有著得天獨厚的戰(zhàn)略地位,同時河南自貿(mào)區(qū)的建設也已經(jīng)正式獲得國務院批復,將在2017年正式掛牌成立。在這個大背景下,河南省對外貿(mào)易正面臨著前所未有的發(fā)展機遇,未來也必將取得跳躍式發(fā)展。匯率改革以后,中國實行了浮動匯率管理制度,人民幣匯率面臨著巨大的升值壓力,其波動性也與日俱增。根據(jù)國際清算銀行的測算,從2005年到2015年的十年間,人民幣實際有效匯率已上漲近50%。隨著中國逐步開放資本賬戶以及人民幣正式作為第五種貨幣加入SDR貨幣籃子,人民幣匯率對經(jīng)濟尤其是對外貿(mào)易的影響程度將更加顯著。因此,深入研究人民幣匯率波動對河南省對外貿(mào)易的影響具有很強的現(xiàn)實意義。文采用理論加實證的分析手段,首先對匯率對貿(mào)易影響的理論進行闡述,然后構建了人民幣實際有效匯率與河南省進出口貿(mào)易、人民幣實際有效匯率與河南省進出口加工貿(mào)易之間的計量模型,進行實證分析。在此基礎上,結(jié)合人民幣匯在未來的波動預期,為河南省的外貿(mào)如何在新時期取得更好發(fā)展提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:The opening degree of the world is increasing day by day, the foreign trade between countries is becoming more and more frequent, and the position of foreign trade in the national economy is increasing day by day. As the price gauge of foreign trade, the change of exchange rate has great influence on the foreign trade of a country or region. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, Henan Province has made great progress in foreign trade. At present, the country is vigorously promoting the "Belt and Road" construction, located in the hinterland of the Central Plains, Henan Province has a unique strategic position, at the same time, the construction of Henan Free Trade area has been officially approved by the State Council, will be officially listed in 2017. Under this background, Henan's foreign trade is facing unprecedented opportunities for development, and it is bound to achieve leap-forward development in the future. After the exchange rate reform, China has implemented the floating exchange rate management system, the RMB exchange rate is facing huge appreciation pressure, its volatility is also increasing day by day. The real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has risen nearly 50 percent between 2005 and 2015, according to calculations by the Bank for International Settlements. With the gradual opening of China's capital account and the official entry of the RMB into the SDR basket as the fifth currency, the impact of RMB exchange rate on the economy, especially on foreign trade, will be more significant. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on Henan's foreign trade. By means of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper firstly expounds the influence of exchange rate on trade, and then constructs the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export trade of Henan Province. The econometric model between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export processing trade of Henan Province is analyzed. On this basis, combined with the RMB exchange in the future volatility expectations, for the foreign trade in Henan Province to achieve better development in the new period to provide policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：河南財經(jīng)政法大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.8

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