【摘要】：縣域經(jīng)濟近年來發(fā)展較快,縣域經(jīng)濟金融市場也在增長,進一步又促進了縣域經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。縣域農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行(下文稱農(nóng)商銀行,前身為農(nóng)村信用合作聯(lián)社)是最近幾年農(nóng)村信用社銀行化改革的產(chǎn)物,其快速的發(fā)展對縣域經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展起到了重要的貢獻作用。改制后的縣域農(nóng)商銀行在業(yè)務(wù)不斷發(fā)展的同時,其經(jīng)營風險也在不斷累積。縣域農(nóng)商銀行金融資源相對短缺,其經(jīng)營風險的不斷增加,又很大程度上干預了農(nóng)商銀行對其資源的合理有效配置,經(jīng)營風險的存在勢必影響農(nóng)商銀行以及縣域經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。因此,如何及時發(fā)現(xiàn)并有效防范縣域農(nóng)商銀行的經(jīng)營風險,成為縣域農(nóng)商銀行和縣域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要難題。本文先在理論層面分析了縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險的形成原因,并構(gòu)建縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險預警模型,并對縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險進行預警評價。然后,以山東省某地區(qū)縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險所選取指標作為實證分析的對象,運用本文構(gòu)建的預警評價模型,確認了該地區(qū)農(nóng)商銀行的經(jīng)營風險水平,以驗證本文建立的預警模型的科學性和可行性。最后,就此提出一些看法和措施以及在以后的研究展望,以便對縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險的防范和控制起到積極的幫助作用。本文構(gòu)建了較為可行的縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險預警模型,系統(tǒng)研究了縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險的形成機制和傳導機制,總結(jié)了前學者的相關(guān)研究成果,并根據(jù)縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險預警的特點,補充了相關(guān)指標數(shù)據(jù),最終建立了較為完善的縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險預警指標評價體系。另一個創(chuàng)新點是對縣域農(nóng)商銀行的經(jīng)營風險進行了量化分析。通過量化分析構(gòu)建了縣域農(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險預警模型,通過本文的研究,該預警模型能夠?qū)r(nóng)商銀行經(jīng)營風險進行有效預警。在文章的最后,在風險預警的前提下,提出了一些科學有效的措施將經(jīng)營風險能夠帶來的損失控制在最少范圍內(nèi),比如提到的可以通過提高信貸等諸多方面的管理質(zhì)量,解放墨守成規(guī)的管理理念,轉(zhuǎn)變老套的思想,應針對其在經(jīng)營管理中存在的問題和難點,采取科學有效的防范政策措施。
[Abstract]:The county economy has developed rapidly in recent years, and the county economy financial market is also growing, which has further promoted the development of the county economy. County Rural Commercial Bank (hereinafter referred to as Agricultural and Commercial Bank, formerly known as Rural Credit Cooperative) is the product of the reform of rural credit cooperative bank in recent years. Its rapid development has played an important role in the rapid development of county economy. After the reform, the business of county agricultural commercial bank is continuously developing, and its operating risks are also accumulating. The relative shortage of financial resources in the county agricultural and commercial banks, the increasing of their operating risks, to a large extent, interferes with the rational and effective allocation of the agricultural and commercial banks' resources, and the existence of the operational risks will inevitably affect the development of the agricultural and commercial banks and the county economy. Therefore, how to find and effectively prevent the operational risks of the county agricultural and commercial banks in time has become an important problem for the county agricultural and commercial banks and the county economic development. This paper first analyzes the reasons for the formation of the operational risk of the county agribusiness bank at the theoretical level, and constructs the early warning model of the management risk of the county agricultural and commercial bank, and carries on the early warning evaluation to the management risk of the county agricultural commercial bank. Then, taking the selected index of agricultural and commercial bank management risk in a certain area of Shandong Province as the object of empirical analysis, using the early-warning evaluation model constructed in this paper, the operating risk level of agricultural and commercial bank in this area is confirmed. In order to verify the scientific and feasibility of the early warning model established in this paper. Finally, this paper puts forward some opinions and measures, as well as the research prospect in the future, in order to play a positive role in preventing and controlling the management risk of the county agribusiness bank. This paper constructs a feasible early-warning model of the operational risk of the county agribusiness bank, systematically studies the formation and transmission mechanism of the operational risk of the county agribusiness bank, and summarizes the relevant research results of the former scholars. According to the characteristics of the early warning of the operational risk of the county agricultural and commercial bank, this paper supplements the relevant index data, and finally establishes a relatively perfect evaluation system of the early warning index of the management risk of the county agricultural and commercial bank. Another innovation point is the quantitative analysis of the management risk of the county agricultural commercial bank. Based on the quantitative analysis, this paper constructs the early-warning model of the operational risk of the county agribusiness bank. Through the research of this paper, the early-warning model can effectively forewarn the operational risk of the agri-commercial bank. At the end of the article, under the premise of risk warning, some scientific and effective measures are put forward to limit the losses that business risks can bring, such as those mentioned above, which can improve the quality of management in many aspects, such as credit, etc. In view of the problems and difficulties existing in the management, scientific and effective preventive policy measures should be taken in order to liberate the management concept and change the clich 茅 s.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.35

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