【摘要】：東盟國(guó)家是中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資的主要目的地。為了更好地研究匯率如何影響中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的直接投資,構(gòu)建了一個(gè)理論模型。研究結(jié)論為:人民幣升值會(huì)增加中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的直接投資,匯率波動(dòng)幅度的增大會(huì)阻礙中國(guó)對(duì)東盟的直接投資,預(yù)期匯率升值不利于市場(chǎng)尋求型對(duì)外直接投資。選取了東盟國(guó)家2005—2014年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用固定效應(yīng)模型和差分GMM動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型進(jìn)行回歸分析,實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示:匯率水平、預(yù)期匯率因素與理論模型預(yù)測(cè)符號(hào)一致且顯著,而匯率波動(dòng)的影響與模型預(yù)測(cè)一致但并不顯著。
[Abstract]:ASEAN countries are the main destinations for Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign direct investment (OFDI). In order to better study how the exchange rate affects China's direct investment in ASEAN, a theoretical model is constructed. The conclusions are as follows: the appreciation of RMB will increase China's direct investment in ASEAN, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation will hinder China's direct investment in ASEAN, and the expected appreciation of exchange rate will be unfavorable to market seeking foreign direct investment. Using the fixed effect model and the differential GMM dynamic panel model to analyze the relevant data of ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2014, the empirical results show that the level of exchange rate, the factor of expected exchange rate is consistent with the prediction symbol of theoretical model and is significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuations is consistent with the model forecast, but not significant.
【作者單位】： 北京外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)國(guó)際商學(xué)院;中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院財(cái)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袑�(zhuān)項(xiàng)經(jīng)費(fèi)資助項(xiàng)目(2009JJ029) 北京外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專(zhuān)項(xiàng)資金資助 北京市社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(15JGB059)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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