中國政策性銀行轉型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-30 06:44
【摘要】：政策性銀行作為財政投融資機構,是財政政策與貨幣政策協(xié)調框架內政府干預經濟的重要手段,是金融形式的特殊財政活動。經過30多年改革開放和高速發(fā)展,我國經濟發(fā)展進入轉型升級階段,政策性銀行如何更好地促進經濟發(fā)展和轉型升級,成為我國財政金融領域一個重要課題。本文研究遵循提出問題、分析問題、解決問題的邏輯展開。提出問題之后,首先分析了政策性銀行存在的理論基礎,探討了政策性銀行產生、發(fā)揮作用和轉型的理論分析框架。接著,分析了政策性銀行轉型的初始狀態(tài),以及經濟新常態(tài)和金融結構問題對政策性銀行轉型的約束。然后,運用數據包絡分析方法(DEA)分析比較了政策性銀行技術效率,并進一步構建計量經濟模型實證分析證明:政策性銀行全要素生產率受到了金融結構發(fā)展程度、資本形成額增速、經濟建設支出占財政支出比重、金融深化程度M2/GDP、GDP增長率等宏觀因素和貸款規(guī)模、資本充足率、銀行技術效率等微觀因素顯著影響,為轉型決策提供了定量分析依據。最后,基于政策性銀行初始狀態(tài)、約束條件和效率實證分析,總結了政策性銀行轉型動因,提出了轉型思路、目標模式和路徑。論文分為7章。第1章是緒論。本章從政策性銀行轉型背景出發(fā),提出了研究主題和研究意義,并界定了相關概念。從財政投融資、政策性銀行轉型、銀行效率等方面梳理前人研究文獻,分析了政策性銀行轉型有關問題前沿成果。然后提出了研究方法、研究內容、研究結構,總結了主要創(chuàng)新與不足。第2章介紹了政策性銀行轉型的理論框架。本章首先根據經濟學、金融學、制度經濟學、發(fā)展經濟學等理論分析了政策性銀行存在的理論基礎。接著,運用IS-LM模型分析政策性銀行在財政政策、貨幣政策協(xié)調框架內的經濟效應和作用機理,分析了政策性銀行作為財政投融資在金融結構中地位的決定因素。然后,分析了政策性銀行轉型的理論基礎,并提出了政策性銀行轉型中績效評價的指標。從而從理論上形成一個政策性銀行產生、發(fā)揮作用、轉型的分析框架。第3章分析中國政策性銀行轉型的初始條件。本章對政策性銀行發(fā)展歷程、在金融結構中的地位進行了分析,對政策性銀行盈利能力、風險管理能力和資本管理能力進行了對比分析,總結了政策性銀行轉型的初始狀態(tài)。第4章分析中國政策性銀行轉型的約束條件。本章首先分析了經濟新常態(tài)下政策性銀行外部經濟環(huán)境變化;然后分析了中國金融結構與經濟結構的適應性,運用戈德史密斯金融結構理論對中國金融結構發(fā)展水平進行了研究,并與國際進行了比較研究,分析了中國金融結構存在的問題;最后分析了經濟與金融環(huán)境對政策性銀行轉型的約束作用。第5章實證分析中國政策性銀行效率及影響因素。本章首先基于數據包絡分析方法(DEA)建立了政策性銀行技術效率分析模型,對政策性銀行技術效率進行了比較分析。接著,構建面板數據,運用DEA-Malmquist指數方法分析了政策性銀行全要素生產率變化,并以DEA-Malmquist模型計算得出的全要素生產率(TFP)指數作為被解釋變量,以影響全要素生產率的宏觀和微觀因素為解釋變量,構建計量經濟模型對政策性銀行全要素生產率的影響因素進行了實證分析。第6章總結國外政策性銀行轉型經驗。本章在系統(tǒng)梳理國外政策性銀行發(fā)展和運行情況基礎上,分析了國外政策性銀行發(fā)展趨勢,并對德國、日本、韓國代表性政策性銀行轉型經驗進行了剖析和總結。第7章提出中國政策性銀行轉型目標模式與路徑選擇。本章首先總結了政策性銀行轉型動因,并基于政策性銀行初始條件、外部經濟環(huán)境變化、金融結構對轉型的影響和銀行效率實證分析,提出了政策性銀行轉型總體思路。然后,結合國際政策性銀行轉型經驗,探討了政策性銀行轉型目標。最后,基于轉型總體思路和目標,提出我國政策性銀行轉型可行路徑。本文主要研究結論可以概括為三個方面:一是基于戈德史密斯金融結構理論分析我國金融相關系數已達399%,金融結構發(fā)展總體程度合理。中國金融領域的問題不是總量問題,而是結構問題,需要政策性銀行發(fā)揮定量、定向金融工具的作用。二是經濟金融環(huán)境對策性銀行轉型的約束作用,主要表現(xiàn)在政治約束、各項改革互補性約束及其與發(fā)展模式制約、風險因素制約、競爭環(huán)境制約影響而導致轉型結果的總和不確定性。三是構建計量經濟模型實證分析表明:金融相關系數、M2/GDP對政策性銀行全要素生產率提升有負效應,而擴張財政政策對政策性銀行信貸投放與效率提升有促進作用。從宏觀經濟看,政策性銀行逆周期調節(jié)作用,主要表現(xiàn)為逆投資周期調節(jié)作用,而不是逆GDP增長周期。在投資下滑期,資本形成額增速下降引致政策性銀行全要素生產率提升。從微觀因素看,擴大貸款規(guī)模和提升銀行管理水平對提升政策性銀行全要素生產率都有正效應。本文在分析中國實際和國際經驗基礎上,提出的主要政策建議:一是在轉型總體思路上,政策性銀行轉型應以提升全要素生產率為核心,并要符合國家經濟發(fā)展階段和國家戰(zhàn)略的特殊性要求。政策性銀行轉型要從引領、補充整個國家金融產業(yè)的角度出發(fā),體現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新驅動,發(fā)揮開發(fā)市場、建設市場的作用。二是在轉型目標模式上,從機構功能和業(yè)務分類的政策性、經營目標明確的市場化運作機制、建立有協(xié)同優(yōu)勢的綜合化經營體系、在金融結構中發(fā)揮引領性補充作用方面對轉型目標進行了分析。三是探討了政策性銀行轉型路徑,從發(fā)展空間制約下的職能轉型、適度規(guī)模條件下推進綜合經營、賦予政策性銀行特許價值權、明確政府與政策性銀行的關系、明確政策性銀行與市場的關系五個方面進行了探討。
[Abstract]:As a financial investment and financing institution, policy bank is an important means to intervene the economy in the framework of fiscal policy and monetary policy. It is a special financial activity in the form of finance. After 30 years of reform and opening up and rapid development, China's economic development has entered the stage of transformation and upgrading, and how the policy bank can better promote economic development and transfer. Type upgrading has become an important issue in the financial and financial field of our country. This paper studies the logical expansion of problems, analyses and solve problems. After putting forward the questions, this paper first analyzes the theoretical basis of the existence of policy banks, probes into the theoretical analysis framework for the production of policy banks, and gives play to the use and transformation of the policies. Then, the policy is analyzed. The initial state of the transformation of sex banks and the constraints of the new economic normal and financial structure on the transformation of the policy banks. Then, using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) analysis and comparison of the technical efficiency of the policy based banks, and further constructing the econometric model, the empirical analysis shows that the total factor productivity of the policy bank is subject to the financial knot. The development degree, the growth rate of capital formation, the expenditure of economic construction in the proportion of financial expenditure, the macro factors such as the financial deepening degree M2/GDP, the GDP growth rate, the loan scale, the capital adequacy ratio, the bank technical efficiency and so on, provide the quantitative analysis basis for the transformation decision. Finally, the constraints are based on the initial state of the policy bank. This chapter is divided into 7 chapters. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter, starting from the background of the transition of policy banks, puts forward the research theme and research significance, and defines the relevant concepts. The second chapter introduces the theoretical framework of the transformation of policy based banks. This chapter first is based on economics, finance, institutional economics, and development economics. The theoretical basis of the existence of policy banks is analyzed. Then, the IS-LM model is used to analyze the economic effect and mechanism of policy banks in the framework of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination, and the determinants of the position of policy banks as financial investment and financing in the financial structure are analyzed. Then, the transformation of policy banks is analyzed. The theoretical basis, and put forward the index of performance evaluation in the policy oriented bank transformation, thus form a policy bank to produce, play the role, the analysis frame of the transformation in theory. The third chapter analyses the initial conditions of the transformation of China's policy bank. The policy banks' profitability, risk management ability and capital management ability are compared and analyzed, and the initial state of policy based banking transformation is summarized. The fourth chapter analyzes the constraints of China's policy based banking transformation. The adaptability of structure and economic structure, using Goldman Smith's financial structure theory to study the development level of China's financial structure, and compared with the international research, analyzed the problems of China's financial structure, and finally analyzed the constraints of the economic and financial environment on the transformation of the policy bank. The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis. In this chapter, based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA), this chapter establishes a policy based bank technical efficiency analysis model, and compares the technical efficiency of the policy bank. Then, the panel data is constructed and the DEA-Malmquist index method is used to analyze the total factor productivity changes of the policy banks. The total factor productivity (TFP) index calculated by the DEA-Malmquist model is interpreted as the explanatory variable and the macro and micro factors that affect the total factor productivity are interpreted as the explanatory variables. The empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the total factor productivity of the policy bank is constructed by the econometric model. The sixth chapter summarizes the experience of foreign policy based banking transformation. On the basis of systematically combing the development and operation of foreign policy banks, this chapter analyzes the development trend of foreign policy banks and analyzes and summarizes the transformation experience of the representative policy banks in Germany, Japan and Korea. The seventh chapter puts forward the model and path selection of China's policy oriented bank transformation. The reasons for the transformation of sex banks are based on the initial conditions of the policy based banks, the changes in the external economic environment, the impact of the financial structure on the transformation and the empirical analysis of the efficiency of the banks. The overall thinking of the policy based banking transformation is put forward. Then, the objective of the policy based banking transformation is discussed with the transition experience of the international policy banks. Finally, the overall thinking of the transformation is based on the overall transformation of the bank. The main conclusions of this paper can be summed up in three aspects: first, based on the theory of Goldman Smith's financial structure, the financial correlation coefficient of China has reached 399%, the overall development of the financial structure is reasonable. The problem of China's financial domain is not the total amount, but the structural problem. It is necessary for policy banks to play the role of quantitative and directional financial instruments. Two is the constraint effect of the transformation of the economic and financial environment, mainly in the political constraints, the complementarity of various reforms and the constraints of the development model, the constraints of the risk factors and the influence of the competitive environment, which lead to the total uncertainty of the transformation results. Three The empirical analysis of the econometric model shows that the financial correlation coefficient, M2/GDP has a negative effect on the promotion of the total factor productivity of policy banks, and the expansion of fiscal policy has a promoting effect on the policy banks' credit delivery and efficiency promotion. From the macro economy, the reverse cycle regulation of policy banks is mainly reflected in the regulation of reverse investment cycle. In the period of the decline of investment, the decline in the amount of capital formation leads to the promotion of total factor productivity of policy banks. From the microcosmic perspective, the expansion of the loan scale and the improvement of the management level of the banks have positive effects on promoting the total factor productivity of policy banks. This paper analyzes the practical and international empirical basis of China in this paper. The main policy suggestions are as follows: first, in the overall thinking of transformation, the transformation of policy banks should be based on promoting total factor productivity as the core, and in line with the special requirements of the national economic development stage and national strategy. The two is to develop the market and the role of the market. In the transformation target model, the policy of institutional function and business classification, the clear operation mechanism of the market-oriented operation target, the establishment of a comprehensive management system with synergistic advantages, the analysis of the transformation goal in the aspect of leading supplementary role in the financial structure. Three is the discussion of the government. The transformation path of the policy bank, from the function transformation under the restriction of the development space, the promotion of the comprehensive management under the moderate scale, the franchise value right of the policy bank, the relationship between the government and the policy bank, and the five aspects of the relationship between the policy bank and the market.
【學位授予單位】：中國財政科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.31
本文編號：2154167
[Abstract]:As a financial investment and financing institution, policy bank is an important means to intervene the economy in the framework of fiscal policy and monetary policy. It is a special financial activity in the form of finance. After 30 years of reform and opening up and rapid development, China's economic development has entered the stage of transformation and upgrading, and how the policy bank can better promote economic development and transfer. Type upgrading has become an important issue in the financial and financial field of our country. This paper studies the logical expansion of problems, analyses and solve problems. After putting forward the questions, this paper first analyzes the theoretical basis of the existence of policy banks, probes into the theoretical analysis framework for the production of policy banks, and gives play to the use and transformation of the policies. Then, the policy is analyzed. The initial state of the transformation of sex banks and the constraints of the new economic normal and financial structure on the transformation of the policy banks. Then, using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) analysis and comparison of the technical efficiency of the policy based banks, and further constructing the econometric model, the empirical analysis shows that the total factor productivity of the policy bank is subject to the financial knot. The development degree, the growth rate of capital formation, the expenditure of economic construction in the proportion of financial expenditure, the macro factors such as the financial deepening degree M2/GDP, the GDP growth rate, the loan scale, the capital adequacy ratio, the bank technical efficiency and so on, provide the quantitative analysis basis for the transformation decision. Finally, the constraints are based on the initial state of the policy bank. This chapter is divided into 7 chapters. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter, starting from the background of the transition of policy banks, puts forward the research theme and research significance, and defines the relevant concepts. The second chapter introduces the theoretical framework of the transformation of policy based banks. This chapter first is based on economics, finance, institutional economics, and development economics. The theoretical basis of the existence of policy banks is analyzed. Then, the IS-LM model is used to analyze the economic effect and mechanism of policy banks in the framework of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination, and the determinants of the position of policy banks as financial investment and financing in the financial structure are analyzed. Then, the transformation of policy banks is analyzed. The theoretical basis, and put forward the index of performance evaluation in the policy oriented bank transformation, thus form a policy bank to produce, play the role, the analysis frame of the transformation in theory. The third chapter analyses the initial conditions of the transformation of China's policy bank. The policy banks' profitability, risk management ability and capital management ability are compared and analyzed, and the initial state of policy based banking transformation is summarized. The fourth chapter analyzes the constraints of China's policy based banking transformation. The adaptability of structure and economic structure, using Goldman Smith's financial structure theory to study the development level of China's financial structure, and compared with the international research, analyzed the problems of China's financial structure, and finally analyzed the constraints of the economic and financial environment on the transformation of the policy bank. The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis. In this chapter, based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA), this chapter establishes a policy based bank technical efficiency analysis model, and compares the technical efficiency of the policy bank. Then, the panel data is constructed and the DEA-Malmquist index method is used to analyze the total factor productivity changes of the policy banks. The total factor productivity (TFP) index calculated by the DEA-Malmquist model is interpreted as the explanatory variable and the macro and micro factors that affect the total factor productivity are interpreted as the explanatory variables. The empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the total factor productivity of the policy bank is constructed by the econometric model. The sixth chapter summarizes the experience of foreign policy based banking transformation. On the basis of systematically combing the development and operation of foreign policy banks, this chapter analyzes the development trend of foreign policy banks and analyzes and summarizes the transformation experience of the representative policy banks in Germany, Japan and Korea. The seventh chapter puts forward the model and path selection of China's policy oriented bank transformation. The reasons for the transformation of sex banks are based on the initial conditions of the policy based banks, the changes in the external economic environment, the impact of the financial structure on the transformation and the empirical analysis of the efficiency of the banks. The overall thinking of the policy based banking transformation is put forward. Then, the objective of the policy based banking transformation is discussed with the transition experience of the international policy banks. Finally, the overall thinking of the transformation is based on the overall transformation of the bank. The main conclusions of this paper can be summed up in three aspects: first, based on the theory of Goldman Smith's financial structure, the financial correlation coefficient of China has reached 399%, the overall development of the financial structure is reasonable. The problem of China's financial domain is not the total amount, but the structural problem. It is necessary for policy banks to play the role of quantitative and directional financial instruments. Two is the constraint effect of the transformation of the economic and financial environment, mainly in the political constraints, the complementarity of various reforms and the constraints of the development model, the constraints of the risk factors and the influence of the competitive environment, which lead to the total uncertainty of the transformation results. Three The empirical analysis of the econometric model shows that the financial correlation coefficient, M2/GDP has a negative effect on the promotion of the total factor productivity of policy banks, and the expansion of fiscal policy has a promoting effect on the policy banks' credit delivery and efficiency promotion. From the macro economy, the reverse cycle regulation of policy banks is mainly reflected in the regulation of reverse investment cycle. In the period of the decline of investment, the decline in the amount of capital formation leads to the promotion of total factor productivity of policy banks. From the microcosmic perspective, the expansion of the loan scale and the improvement of the management level of the banks have positive effects on promoting the total factor productivity of policy banks. This paper analyzes the practical and international empirical basis of China in this paper. The main policy suggestions are as follows: first, in the overall thinking of transformation, the transformation of policy banks should be based on promoting total factor productivity as the core, and in line with the special requirements of the national economic development stage and national strategy. The two is to develop the market and the role of the market. In the transformation target model, the policy of institutional function and business classification, the clear operation mechanism of the market-oriented operation target, the establishment of a comprehensive management system with synergistic advantages, the analysis of the transformation goal in the aspect of leading supplementary role in the financial structure. Three is the discussion of the government. The transformation path of the policy bank, from the function transformation under the restriction of the development space, the promotion of the comprehensive management under the moderate scale, the franchise value right of the policy bank, the relationship between the government and the policy bank, and the five aspects of the relationship between the policy bank and the market.
【學位授予單位】：中國財政科學研究院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.31
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