本文選題：VAR模型 + 資本項(xiàng)目開放��； 參考：《上海金融》2017年05期

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目開放程度的不斷擴(kuò)大,資本跨境流動(dòng)日益頻繁,規(guī)模呈上升趨勢(shì)。資本的跨境流動(dòng)在給宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)不確定影響的同時(shí),也對(duì)我國(guó)洗錢規(guī)模造成了影響,尤其是利用跨境交易將資金輸往國(guó)外進(jìn)行清洗的動(dòng)機(jī)更加強(qiáng)烈。本文選用1997-2014年間的年度數(shù)據(jù),分析我國(guó)洗錢規(guī)模和資本項(xiàng)目開放程度之間的相互影響,運(yùn)用VAR模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。研究結(jié)果表明,我國(guó)資本項(xiàng)目開放度對(duì)洗錢規(guī)模產(chǎn)生正向影響,資本項(xiàng)目開放在一定程度上能夠?qū)ο村X規(guī)模產(chǎn)生正的效應(yīng),這種正向效應(yīng)存在一定的滯后期。在此基礎(chǔ)上,文章提出資本項(xiàng)目開放下控制洗錢規(guī)模的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the opening of capital account in our country, the cross-border capital flow is becoming more and more frequent, and the scale is on the rise. The cross-border flow of capital not only has an uncertain impact on the macro-economy, but also has an impact on the scale of money laundering in China. Especially, the motive of using cross-border transactions to send funds abroad for laundering is stronger. Based on the annual data from 1997-2014, this paper analyzes the interaction between the scale of money laundering and the openness of capital account in China, and makes an empirical analysis with VAR model. The results show that the openness of capital account has a positive effect on the scale of money laundering, and the opening of capital account can have a positive effect on the scale of money laundering to a certain extent, and this positive effect has a certain lag. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for controlling the scale of money laundering under the opening of capital account.
【作者單位】： 遼寧大學(xué);
【分類號(hào)】：F832.2

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