本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 美中貿(mào)易逆差��； 參考：《理論月刊》2017年11期

【摘要】：人民幣匯率是否是造成美中貿(mào)易逆差的真實原因?文章提出了兩個悖論:其一,如果人民幣匯率低估是造成美中貿(mào)易逆差的原因,人民幣升值過程中美中貿(mào)易逆差就會縮小,而事實上,2016年人民幣兌美元匯率年均中間價比2005年升值了27.8%;同期美中貿(mào)易逆差為2507.93億美元,比2005年增長了414.7%。由此說明,即使人民幣匯率升值,美中貿(mào)易逆差也增大。其二,Granger檢驗結(jié)果顯示:人民幣匯率與中美雙邊貿(mào)易規(guī)模沒有因果關(guān)系,人民幣匯率既不是造成美中貿(mào)易逆差的"因",美中貿(mào)易逆差也不是人民幣匯率的"果"。所以,美國單方認(rèn)為美中貿(mào)易逆差是由于人民幣匯率低估是毫無根據(jù)的。
[Abstract]:Is the RMB exchange rate the real cause of the U. S. -China trade deficit? This paper puts forward two paradoxes: first, if the undervaluation of RMB exchange rate is the cause of the trade deficit between the United States and China, the trade deficit between the United States and China will shrink in the course of RMB appreciation. In fact, the yuan rose 27.8 cents a year against the dollar in 2016, while the U.S. trade deficit with China was $250.793 billion, up 414.7from 2005. This shows that, even if the RMB exchange rate appreciation, the United States and China trade deficit also increased. Second, the Granger test shows that there is no causal relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the scale of bilateral trade between China and China. The RMB exchange rate is neither a "cause" of the US-China trade deficit, nor is the US-China trade deficit a "result" of the RMB exchange rate. So, the United States unilaterally claims that the U.S. trade deficit with China is due to an undervalued yuan.
【作者單位】： 鄭州大學(xué)西亞斯國際學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6

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