本文選題：對(duì)外直接投資　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化日益深化的背景下,我國(guó)對(duì)其他國(guó)家的投資規(guī)模和頻次均已大幅增加。然而,在此過(guò)程中,我國(guó)企業(yè)所面臨的東道國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也更加復(fù)雜。由于國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)東道國(guó)綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究不多,企業(yè)在對(duì)東道國(guó)投資之前,所面臨的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估是一個(gè)難題。而本文綜合了各個(gè)常用的分項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)各分項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做了理論分析和綜合的數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)算,具有一定的實(shí)踐意義。本文首先介紹了對(duì)外直接投資的基本概念和基礎(chǔ)理論,構(gòu)建了一個(gè)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下的克魯格曼壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模型,通過(guò)比較企業(yè)預(yù)期效用與企業(yè)利潤(rùn)的關(guān)系,逐步推導(dǎo)出企業(yè)可能會(huì)對(duì)一國(guó)進(jìn)行直接投資的條件。隨后,本文從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的構(gòu)成要素、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好以及投資動(dòng)機(jī)三個(gè)層面展開(kāi),詳細(xì)探討了東道國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響我國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資的內(nèi)在機(jī)理。本文綜合各種文獻(xiàn),選出了起主導(dǎo)作用的幾種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的層面,假設(shè)我國(guó)企業(yè)在對(duì)外直接投資時(shí)具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好特征,那么企業(yè)會(huì)傾向于對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的國(guó)家投資。在投資動(dòng)機(jī)上,我國(guó)企業(yè)在對(duì)外直接投資時(shí),具有市場(chǎng)尋求、資源尋求以及技術(shù)尋求特征。在不同的投資動(dòng)機(jī)下,東道國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)我國(guó)企業(yè)OFDI的影響機(jī)制也有所不同。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)算方面,本文采用改進(jìn)的主成分分析法(PCA),測(cè)算出所選樣本的各項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值。從各國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值可以得出,發(fā)展中國(guó)家的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值在總體上比較高。而分析各國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的波動(dòng)可知,我國(guó)企業(yè)愿意對(duì)一國(guó)直接投資的條件與前文理論模型推導(dǎo)的一致。本文根據(jù)64個(gè)國(guó)家近10年的面板數(shù)據(jù),采用固定效應(yīng)模型,研究了東道國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)我國(guó)OFDI的實(shí)證影響。結(jié)果表明,東道國(guó)的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)均對(duì)我國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資有影響,我國(guó)企業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資在各項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上均不存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的問(wèn)題。在投資動(dòng)機(jī)上,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,我國(guó)企業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資的確具有市場(chǎng)尋求、資源尋求以及技術(shù)尋求動(dòng)機(jī)。而在加入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與投資動(dòng)機(jī)的交互項(xiàng)之后,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)投資的影響也會(huì)被抑制或促進(jìn),這與理論分析結(jié)論是一致的。由于我國(guó)企業(yè)未來(lái)對(duì)“一帶一路”沿線(xiàn)國(guó)家投資會(huì)越來(lái)越多,本文對(duì)“一帶一路”國(guó)家的數(shù)據(jù)做了重點(diǎn)測(cè)算,并對(duì)其樣本單獨(dú)做了實(shí)證分析,實(shí)證結(jié)果與全樣本基本一致。
[Abstract]:Under the background of deepening economic globalization, the scale and frequency of China's investment in other countries have increased significantly.However, in this process, the risk of the host country faced by Chinese enterprises is more complex.Because there is not much research on the comprehensive risk of the host country in our country, the comprehensive risk assessment that enterprises face before investing in the host country is a difficult problem.This paper synthesizes the common itemized risk, makes the theoretical analysis and the comprehensive data calculation to each itemized risk as well as the overall risk, which has certain practical significance.This paper first introduces the basic concepts and basic theories of FDI, constructs a Krugman monopoly competition model in an open economy, and compares the relationship between the expected utility of enterprises and the profits of enterprises.The conditions under which firms may invest directly in a country are gradually deduced.Then, this paper discusses the internal mechanism of the host country's risk influencing the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises in detail from three aspects: the constituent elements of risk, the risk preference and the investment motivation.In this paper, several risk factors which play a leading role are selected by synthesizing all kinds of literatures.In the aspect of risk preference, if Chinese enterprises have the characteristics of risk preference in OFDI, then enterprises tend to invest in countries with higher risk.In terms of investment motivation, Chinese enterprises have the characteristics of market seeking, resource seeking and technology seeking when they invest in foreign direct investment.Under different investment motives, the influence mechanism of host country risk on OFDI of Chinese enterprises is also different.In the aspect of risk measurement, this paper uses the improved principal component analysis method to calculate the risk values of the selected samples.From the risk value of each country, the overall risk value of developing countries is relatively high.By analyzing the fluctuation of risk in different countries, we can see that the conditions of Chinese enterprises willing to invest in a country are consistent with the theoretical model.Based on panel data from 64 countries in the past 10 years, this paper studies the empirical influence of host country risk on OFDI in China by using fixed effect model.The results show that the political, economic and legal risks of the host country have an impact on China's foreign direct investment, and there is no risk preference problem in the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises.In terms of investment motivation, the empirical results show that the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises does have the motivation of market seeking, resource seeking and technology seeking.After the interaction between risk and investment motivation, the influence of risk on investment will be restrained or promoted, which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis.As Chinese enterprises will invest more and more in the countries along Belt and Road in the future, this paper makes a key calculation of the data of the country along "Belt and Road", and makes an empirical analysis of the samples separately. The empirical results are basically consistent with those of the whole sample.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

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