發(fā)布時間：2018-01-06 22:00

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：貸款利率市場化對農(nóng)村正規(guī)與非正規(guī)金融關(guān)系的影響研究　出處：《浙江理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貸款利率市場化 正規(guī)金融 非正規(guī)金融 技術(shù)內(nèi)生效應(yīng)

【摘要】：近些年來隨著新型農(nóng)村金融機構(gòu)的迅速興起,農(nóng)村利率市場化改革進程也在不斷加速,在不斷擴大貸款利率浮動區(qū)間的基礎(chǔ)上,2013年7月更是實現(xiàn)了貸款利率的全面市場化,從而邁出了農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展具有歷史意義的一步。而在大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國家,農(nóng)村信貸市場主要由正規(guī)金融部門與非正規(guī)金融部門構(gòu)成的。這兩個部門長久以來一直存在著強烈競爭、合作互補關(guān)系,且政府常出臺政策為打壓非正規(guī)金融在農(nóng)村的地位,但其效果都不顯著,甚至有些政策反而有助于非正規(guī)金融發(fā)展。作為極為重要的外生沖擊,農(nóng)村正規(guī)金融貸款利率的完全市場化對于正規(guī)金融與非正規(guī)金融的影響是全方位的。本文是在已有文獻研究的基礎(chǔ)上,以近十年來中國的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)實出發(fā),探討貸款利率市場化對農(nóng)村正規(guī)與非正規(guī)金融影響的機制與效應(yīng)。首先深入歸納、提煉與創(chuàng)新以不完全信息為基礎(chǔ)的現(xiàn)代農(nóng)村正規(guī)與非正規(guī)金融機構(gòu)的互動機制理論,研究的理論框架中考察了以前學(xué)者不曾考慮的技術(shù)內(nèi)生效應(yīng),將在一定程度上更合理地展現(xiàn)貸款利率市場化的推進過程。進而對從數(shù)據(jù)中挖掘出近十年來正規(guī)與非正規(guī)金融發(fā)展的基本事實,并利用計量模型科學(xué)的驗證貸款利率市場化所導(dǎo)致的正規(guī)金融對非正規(guī)金融的替代效應(yīng)和替代機制,最后探討了農(nóng)村金融市場本身的完善程度是否比貸款利率市場化對農(nóng)村金融結(jié)構(gòu)的影響更顯著。通過理論框架分析與計量實證研究,本文得出的結(jié)論如下:(1)中國貸款利率市場化可分為利率增長快速期、利率波動變化期與利率回落穩(wěn)定期三個階段,在三個階段中貸款利率市場化對正規(guī)與非正規(guī)金融發(fā)展都有極大的影響,且有一定的差異性;(2)在漸進利率市場化過程中,本文創(chuàng)新性提出正規(guī)金融與非正規(guī)金融的關(guān)系是名義收益效應(yīng)、借款人類型惡化效應(yīng)與技術(shù)內(nèi)生效應(yīng)三種效應(yīng)的迭加。在三種效應(yīng)的共同作用下,正規(guī)金融對非正規(guī)金融的替代效應(yīng)呈倒U型變化特征,亦可分為三大階段;(3)在研究貸款利率市場化對正規(guī)金融與非正規(guī)金融的關(guān)系影響問題中,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)信息不對稱是比利率市場化更能影響農(nóng)村金融結(jié)構(gòu)的因素。根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,得出了相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟政策含義:(1)適度調(diào)控放貸利率,在對貸款利率走勢有所估計的情況下利用貸款利率風(fēng)險報警系統(tǒng)調(diào)控利率;(2)嚴(yán)格把控借貸時限,對借貸農(nóng)民綜合評價后再給出金融機構(gòu)可接受的借貸期限;(3)重視金融市場的完善程度,運用好當(dāng)代大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)使征信數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化,以數(shù)據(jù)融合來連接各地的信息。由于受限于筆者的知識儲備與可獲取的數(shù)據(jù)樣本,本文在最后點出了不足之處。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid rise of new rural financial institutions, the process of market-oriented reform of rural interest rates is also accelerating, on the basis of expanding the floating range of loan interest rates. In July 2013, the overall marketization of loan interest rates was realized, thus taking a historic step forward in the development of rural finance, while in most developing countries. The rural credit market is mainly composed of the formal financial sector and the informal financial sector, the two sectors have been strong competition for a long time, cooperation and complementarity. And the government often issued policies to suppress the status of informal finance in rural areas, but its effect is not significant, even some policies help the development of informal finance. As an extremely important exogenous impact. The full marketization of the interest rate of rural formal finance loan has a comprehensive impact on formal finance and informal finance. This paper is based on the existing literature on the basis of the recent ten years of economic reality in China. This paper discusses the mechanism and effect of marketization of loan interest rate on rural formal and informal finance. Abstract and innovate the interactive mechanism theory of modern rural formal and informal financial institutions based on incomplete information. In the theoretical framework of the study, we examine the endogenous effects of technology that scholars have not considered before. To a certain extent, it will show the advance process of marketization of loan interest rate, and then dig out the basic facts of the development of formal and informal finance in the past ten years from the data. And the econometric model is used to verify the substitution effect and mechanism of the formal finance to the informal finance caused by the marketization of loan interest rate. Finally, it discusses whether the perfection of the rural financial market itself is more significant than the marketization of loan interest rate on the rural financial structure. Through theoretical framework analysis and econometric empirical research. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: (1) the marketization of interest rate in China can be divided into three stages: the period of rapid interest rate growth, the period of interest rate fluctuation and the period of interest rate falling and stabilizing. In the three stages, the marketization of loan interest rate has a great influence on the development of both formal and informal finance, and there are some differences; 2) in the process of gradual interest rate marketization, this paper innovatively proposes that the relationship between formal finance and informal finance is the effect of nominal income. Under the combined effect of the three effects, the substitution effect of formal finance to informal finance has the characteristics of inverted U-shaped change, and can also be divided into three stages; 3) in the study of the influence of marketization of loan interest rate on the relationship between formal finance and informal finance, this paper finds that asymmetric information is a more effective factor affecting rural financial structure than the marketization of interest rate. Get the corresponding economic policy meaning: 1) adjust and control the lending interest rate moderately, and adjust the interest rate by using the loan interest rate risk alarm system under the condition of estimating the trend of the loan interest rate; (2) strictly control the time limit of lending and lending, and then give the loan period acceptable to the financial institutions after comprehensive evaluation of the loan farmers; 3) attach importance to the perfection of the financial market, make use of the modern big data technology to standardize the credit information and connect the information in different places with the data fusion, because of the limitation of the author's knowledge reserve and the available data sample. At the end of this paper, the shortcomings are pointed out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.35;F832.5

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