發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-29 03:30

【摘要】：已有的研究表明,能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)普遍存在,并對(duì)能源消費(fèi)總量產(chǎn)生了重大影響。改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),陜西省的單位GDP能耗在技術(shù)進(jìn)步的作用下總體呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),但能源消費(fèi)總量卻沒(méi)有隨之下降,反而在快速增長(zhǎng)。因此,在目前我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型、資源瓶頸約束趨緊的背景下,研究能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng),進(jìn)而優(yōu)化能源消費(fèi)總量,對(duì)于促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型、突破資源瓶頸約束具有重大現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)理論的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和研究成果,從直接回彈效應(yīng),間接回彈效應(yīng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)層面回彈效應(yīng)三個(gè)方面解釋和說(shuō)明了技術(shù)進(jìn)步引起的能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生原因和作用機(jī)制。接著對(duì)陜西省1995-2013年能源消費(fèi)總量和技術(shù)進(jìn)步變動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)陜西省存在著明顯的能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)。隨后構(gòu)建了測(cè)算能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)的模型,測(cè)算技術(shù)進(jìn)步的外生增長(zhǎng)模型,對(duì)陜西省1995-2013年的全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)行測(cè)算,進(jìn)而得出技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率,并對(duì)全要素生產(chǎn)率和技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率的變動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行分析。最后,根據(jù)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率的測(cè)算結(jié)果,對(duì)陜西省1995-2013年的能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)進(jìn)行測(cè)算,并對(duì)其變動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明陜西省能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)的趨勢(shì)是在高位波動(dòng),均值達(dá)到79.17%。這說(shuō)明陜西省技術(shù)進(jìn)步帶來(lái)的能源消費(fèi)減少量在很大程度上被技術(shù)進(jìn)步帶來(lái)的能源消費(fèi)增加量所抵消,想要單純依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步達(dá)到控制能源消費(fèi)總量的思路效果并不顯著。因此,要優(yōu)化能源消費(fèi)總量,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,就必須重視能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)的重要影響,按照以市場(chǎng)化為主導(dǎo)的方向進(jìn)行調(diào)整,弱化能源消費(fèi)回彈效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Previous studies have shown that springback effect of energy consumption is widespread and has a significant impact on total energy consumption. Since the reform and opening up, the energy consumption per unit GDP in Shaanxi Province has shown a downward trend under the action of technological progress, but the total energy consumption has not decreased with it, but has been increasing rapidly. Therefore, under the background of the transformation of economic development mode and the tightening of resource bottleneck, the springback effect of energy consumption is studied and the total energy consumption is optimized, which will promote the transformation of economic development mode. It is of great practical significance to break through the bottleneck constraints of resources. Firstly, this paper reviews the current situation and research results of rebound effect theory of energy consumption at home and abroad, starting with direct springback effect. Indirect springback effect and economic springback effect explain and explain the reason and mechanism of energy consumption rebound effect caused by technological progress. Then, the change of total energy consumption and technological progress in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013 is analyzed, and it is found that there is a rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province. Then, the paper constructs a model to measure the rebound effect of energy consumption, an exogenous growth model of technological progress, calculates the total factor productivity of Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013, and then obtains the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth. The change of the contribution rate of total factor productivity and technological progress to economic growth is analyzed. Finally, according to the result of the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth, the rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013 is calculated, and the change of energy consumption is analyzed. The results show that the trend of rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province is high, the mean value is 79.17. This shows that the decrease of energy consumption brought about by technological progress in Shaanxi Province is largely offset by the increase in energy consumption brought by technological progress, and the effect of controlling the total amount of energy consumption by relying solely on technological progress is not remarkable. Therefore, in order to optimize the total amount of energy consumption and promote the coordinated development of economic and social environment, we must pay attention to the important influence of rebound effect of energy consumption, adjust it according to the direction of marketization, and weaken the rebound effect of energy consumption.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F206

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