【摘要】：1978年至今,云南經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)了快速增長(zhǎng),但與此同時(shí),云南經(jīng)濟(jì)也經(jīng)歷了多次較大波動(dòng)。本研究基于SVAR模型及凱恩斯的總需求決定理論,就三大需求對(duì)云南宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響進(jìn)行了分析,并對(duì)三大需求與地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值之間同一時(shí)期及不同時(shí)期的相互影響展開了深入探討。通過研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)三大需求均是影響云南宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的因素。從短期看,投資對(duì)云南宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的造成的影響最大;從長(zhǎng)期看,消費(fèi)對(duì)云南宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響最大;而出口對(duì)云南宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響在長(zhǎng)短期均最弱,印證了云南經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展主要得益于內(nèi)需的擴(kuò)大,云南經(jīng)濟(jì)的波動(dòng)與內(nèi)需的波動(dòng)密切相關(guān),與外需的波動(dòng)關(guān)聯(lián)較弱。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展新常態(tài)下,堅(jiān)持?jǐn)U大內(nèi)需,特別是有效發(fā)揮消費(fèi)需求對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用,對(duì)云南實(shí)現(xiàn)持續(xù)較快發(fā)展極其重要;同時(shí),進(jìn)一步穩(wěn)定投資規(guī)模,提高民間投資效率,優(yōu)化投資結(jié)構(gòu),提高云南對(duì)外開放程度,也將有力助推云南經(jīng)濟(jì)在未來穩(wěn)步發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, Yunnan economy has achieved rapid growth, but at the same time, Yunnan economy has experienced many large fluctuations. Based on the SVAR model and Keynes' theory of total demand determination, this paper analyzes the impact of the three major demands on the macroeconomic fluctuations in Yunnan. The interaction between the three demands and the regional GDP in the same period and different periods is also discussed. Through research, it is found that the three major demands are the factors that affect the macroeconomic fluctuation in Yunnan. In the short term, the impact of investment on Yunnan's macroeconomic is the greatest; in the long run, consumption has the greatest impact on Yunnan's macroeconomic fluctuations; and exports have the weakest impact on Yunnan's macroeconomic fluctuations in the long and short term. It is confirmed that the development of Yunnan economy is mainly due to the expansion of domestic demand. The fluctuation of Yunnan economy is closely related to the fluctuation of domestic demand, but it is weakly related to the fluctuation of external demand. Under the new normal state of economic development, it is extremely important for Yunnan to continue to develop rapidly by insisting on expanding domestic demand, especially by effectively giving full play to the pull role of consumer demand on the economy; at the same time, it is necessary to further stabilize the scale of investment and improve the efficiency of private investment. Optimizing the investment structure and improving Yunnan's opening to the outside world will also help Yunnan's economy to develop steadily in the future.
【作者單位】： 云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);
【基金】：云南省哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目“基于SVAR模型云南宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)影響因素研究(XKJS201513)”,項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人:晏鴻雁
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2147728