本文選題：保稅區(qū) + 載體城市經濟增長　； 參考：《統(tǒng)計與決策》2016年18期

【摘要】：文章基于VECM模型,以寧波保稅區(qū)域為例,檢驗了保稅區(qū)的出口加工值、進出口總額、海關特殊監(jiān)管區(qū)域物流貨物三大變量對載體城市經濟增長的影響。通過對各個變量的協(xié)整檢驗、脈沖響應函數(shù)和方差分解分析,結果表明:1995—2015年,寧波保稅區(qū)域發(fā)展與寧波市GDP經濟增長之間存在較顯著的長期均衡關系,其出口加工值、進出口總額、海關特殊監(jiān)管區(qū)域物流貨物對載體城市GDP增長貢獻的正向效應顯著,滯后短期內其遞增速度加快,達到峰值后其貢獻度減緩,之后其貢獻力度逐步長期趨于平穩(wěn)。
[Abstract]:Based on the VECM model and taking Ningbo bonded area as an example, this paper examines the effects of export processing value, total import and export volume and logistics goods of special customs supervision area on the economic growth of carrier cities. Through cointegration test of various variables, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, the results show that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between Ningbo bonded area development and Ningbo GDP economic growth from 1995 to 2015, and its export processing value. The total import and export volume, the positive effect of regional logistics goods under special customs supervision on the GDP growth of carrier cities is significant, and the increasing speed of logistics goods is accelerating in a short period of time, and the contribution degree is slowing down after reaching the peak value, and then the contribution force gradually tends to steady for a long time.
【作者單位】： 中南大學商學院;浙江金融職業(yè)學院;
【基金】：浙江省哲學社會科學基金資助項目(310CGYD98YBM)
【分類號】：F299.27

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本文編號：2104985