本文選題：城市體系 + Zipf��； 參考：《河北大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：為解決中國城市化進程中出現的種種問題,走有中國特色的、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的城市化道路,中共中央國務院于2014年印發(fā)《國家新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃(2014—2020年)》,提出走大中小城市同小城鎮(zhèn)協(xié)調發(fā)展,互相促進、共同發(fā)展的新型城鎮(zhèn)化道路。其中,城鎮(zhèn)化格局更加優(yōu)化是一項重要目標。隨著城市化、工業(yè)化飛躍發(fā)展,經濟社會迅速轉型,伴生出能源資源短缺、交通擁堵、環(huán)境惡化、社會矛盾突出等一系列問題,實現大中小城市和小城鎮(zhèn)的協(xié)調發(fā)展重要性也日益凸顯。城市體系是一個有機系統(tǒng),大、中、小城市各自在城市體系中占據自己的位置,發(fā)揮自己的作用,相互補充,缺一不可。研究大、中、小城市的規(guī)模結構問題,探索適合中國國情的規(guī)模體系,具有重大的理論和現實意義。在以往的研究中,學者們基于位序—規(guī)模法則、城市首位律以及城市金字塔等研究方法,對中國、各經濟區(qū)或者各省的城市規(guī)模分布進行了研究,但是從三個層面進行系統(tǒng)研究的文獻不多,且在人口規(guī)模指標的選取上,多選取市轄區(qū)非農業(yè)人口,沒有進行多種人口統(tǒng)計口徑的對比分析。本文選取了市轄區(qū)年末總人口,市轄區(qū)非農業(yè)人口以及市轄區(qū)年平均人口,三種人口統(tǒng)計口徑,進行了全國、三大區(qū)域、各省三大層面的系統(tǒng)分析。首先通過分析城市規(guī)模分布金字塔特征、首位度特征,發(fā)現我國的城市規(guī)模分布存在全國層面小城市缺失、東西部呈現倒金字塔分布、中部呈現梭型分布以及西部大城市擴散效應弱等問題;其次基于Zipf法則進行了三個層面Zipf指數的測算,并用多種回歸方法檢驗了Zipf指數對GDP以及人均GDP的影響,結果表明,Zipf指數值的確對GDP或人均GDP有顯著影響,說明可以通過對城市規(guī)模分布的調整來實現經濟的發(fā)展,但并沒有得到在q=1時,GDP或人均GDP達到最優(yōu);再次利用面板回歸模型對Zipf指數的影響因素進行分析,結果表明交通密度與外商直接投資與Zipf指數負相關,而工業(yè)化水平與市場化程度與Zipf指數正相關;最后基于影響因素的分析結果,針對全國、三大區(qū)域具體情況提出改進建議,使其城市規(guī)模分布更加合理。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problems in the process of urbanization in China, we should follow the road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics and sustainable development. In 2014, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020", proposing a new urbanization road of coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns, mutual promotion and common development. Among them, the pattern of urbanization is more optimized is an important goal. With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the rapid economic and social transformation, accompanied by a series of problems, such as shortage of energy resources, traffic congestion, deterioration of the environment, prominent social contradictions, etc. It is also increasingly important to realize the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns. Urban system is an organic system, large, medium and small cities each occupy their own position in the urban system, play their role, complement each other, indispensable. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the scale structure of large, medium and small cities and to explore the scale system suitable for China's national conditions. In previous studies, scholars have studied the distribution of urban scale in China, economic zones or provinces based on the law of location-scale, the law of urban primacy and urban pyramids. However, there are few literatures on the three levels of systematic research, and in the selection of population scale indicators, the non-agricultural population in the municipal area is mostly selected, and there is no comparative analysis of various demographic caliber. This paper selects the total population at the end of the year, the non-agricultural population in the municipal district and the average annual population in the municipal district, and carries out a systematic analysis of the whole country, the three regions and the provinces at three levels. Firstly, by analyzing the pyramid characteristics and the first degree characteristics of urban scale distribution, it is found that the urban scale distribution in our country is missing at the national level, and the eastern and western areas present the inverted pyramid distribution. In the middle, the distribution of shuttle type and the weak diffusion effect in western big cities are discussed. Secondly, the Zipf index of three layers is calculated based on the Zipf rule, and the influence of Zipf index on GDP and GDP per capita is tested by multiple regression methods. The results show that the Zipf index value does have a significant effect on GDP or GDP per capita, indicating that economic development can be achieved through the adjustment of urban size distribution, but not the optimal GDP or per capita GDP at Q = 1; Thirdly, the panel regression model is used to analyze the influencing factors of Zipf index. The results show that the traffic density is negatively correlated with FDI and Zipf index, while the level of industrialization and the degree of marketization are positively correlated with Zipf index. Finally, based on the analysis results of influencing factors, some suggestions are put forward to make the distribution of urban scale more reasonable in the light of the specific conditions of the whole country and the three major regions.
【學位授予單位】：河北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.2

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