本文關(guān)鍵詞：城區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與景觀格局變化的動(dòng)態(tài)模型研究　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城市化 景觀格局分析 景觀指數(shù) 城市模型 元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)

【摘要】：城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是地球各大生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中最特別的景觀。相對(duì)于森林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)等自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng),城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的生態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu)非常簡(jiǎn)單,通常以城市用地為優(yōu)勢(shì)景觀,并且在很大程度上受到人類活動(dòng)的影響。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、技術(shù)發(fā)展、社會(huì)發(fā)展對(duì)城市土地轉(zhuǎn)換即城市化有著至關(guān)重要的影響,反過來,城市化也深刻地改變著城市生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu),功能及動(dòng)態(tài)。如今,人類所面臨的很多生態(tài)問題、環(huán)境問題都與城市化的關(guān)系非常緊密,生態(tài)環(huán)境的狀況好壞可以充分反映城市土地利用的合理性。量化景觀格局以及其動(dòng)態(tài)變化是對(duì)于城市化的生態(tài)后果進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)和評(píng)估必不可少的部分。在眾多城市模型中,元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)是一種被廣泛使用的動(dòng)態(tài)模型,利用這個(gè)模型,可以很好的對(duì)城市土地變化進(jìn)行模擬與預(yù)測(cè)。本文選擇城市化發(fā)展迅速的北京市海淀區(qū)和朝陽區(qū)作為研究區(qū)域,研究的時(shí)間幅度為1984年到2009年共25年,時(shí)間間隔為5年,利用RS和GIS軟件對(duì)遙感影像進(jìn)行解譯,獲取土地利用分類圖,并根據(jù)景觀生態(tài)學(xué)中的有關(guān)理論,使用景觀格局指數(shù)方法,運(yùn)用FRAGSTATS軟件對(duì)分類結(jié)果進(jìn)行景觀指數(shù)計(jì)算,對(duì)研究區(qū)景觀格局變化的變化進(jìn)行歷史性回顧分析,并對(duì)城市景觀規(guī)劃提出基于景觀格局的建議。結(jié)果表明:一般而言,隨著城市化的發(fā)展景觀應(yīng)該逐漸破碎化,但對(duì)于研究區(qū)而言,景觀指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)卻恰恰相反,各種指標(biāo)都表明隨著人工建筑面積的增加,裸土的減少,景觀破碎度減小,景觀結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜程度減小,景觀多樣性減小。人類活動(dòng)的干擾強(qiáng)大是城市景觀與自然景觀最大的不同,但也正是因?yàn)橛腥说墓芾?我們可以做到在了解景觀格局的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)城市景觀進(jìn)行優(yōu)化。此外,為了動(dòng)態(tài)模擬城市化發(fā)展,本研究采用基于邏輯回歸的元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)理論來實(shí)現(xiàn)城市土地利用變化動(dòng)態(tài)模擬。在Arc GIS軟件支持下,獲取一系列城市發(fā)展的自然及經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)約束條件。將1984年和1994年的分類結(jié)果作為訓(xùn)練集使用邏輯回歸來生成元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則,最后將其運(yùn)用到1994年分類結(jié)果得到2004年土地利用模擬圖,并與2004年遙感影像分類結(jié)果圖進(jìn)行對(duì)比,驗(yàn)證模型精度為海淀區(qū)70.02%,朝陽區(qū)64.94%。研究成果具有重要意義,并能為其以后的發(fā)展做出預(yù)測(cè)和提出建議。
[Abstract]:City ecosystem is the special landscape of the ecological system of the earth. With respect to the forest ecological system and natural ecological system, ecological structure of city ecological system is very simple, usually in the city land is the dominant landscape, and largely influenced by human activities. The influence of the development of technology, economic development, social development of the city the city of land conversion has important influence, in turn, the city also changed the structure of city ecological system, function and dynamic. Nowadays, many ecological problems facing mankind, environment and city relations asked questions are very close, the ecological environment situation can fully reflect the rationality of city land use the quantification of landscape pattern and its dynamic change is an essential part for the monitoring and assessment of ecological consequences of the city. In many city cellular model. Automaton is a kind of dynamic model is widely used, using this model, can be very good on the city land use change simulation and prediction. The rapid development of Beijing city and Haidian District city of Chaoyang District as the study area, study the time range from 1984 to 2009 a total of 25 years, the time interval is 5 years, for remote sensing image interpretation using RS and GIS software, the acquisition of land use classification map, and according to the relevant theories of landscape ecology, using landscape pattern index method, using FRAGSTATS software landscape index for the classification results, changes of landscape pattern change in the study area were retrospectively analyzed and the history of city landscape planning of landscape pattern based on the advice. The results showed that: in general, with the development of city landscape should be gradually fragmented, but for the study area, landscape index's performance is just On the contrary, various indicators show that with the increase of artificial construction area, reducing bare soil, landscape fragmentation decreased, landscape complexity decreases, landscape diversity decreased. The disturbance of human activity is strong in different city landscape and the natural landscape of the largest, but it is also because the management of people, we can do it in based on the understanding of the landscape pattern of city landscape optimization. In addition, in order to dynamic simulation of city development, this research is based on cellular automaton theory for binary logistic regression to realize city dynamic simulation of land use changes in the Arc. Under the support of GIS software, obtaining a series of city development and the natural economic and social constraints. The classification results will be in 1984 and 1994 as the training set using logistic regression to generate cellular automaton state transition rules, and finally apply it to the classification results obtained land in 2004 1994 With the simulation map, and compared with the 2004 remote sensing image classification results, to verify the accuracy of the model for Haidian District 70.02%, Chaoyang District has an important significance of 64.94%. research, and for its future development and make predictions and recommendations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;P901

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