美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易的溢出效應(yīng)分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-17 18:47
【摘要】：自2006年春季起,美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)逐漸顯露,2007年8月世界范圍的各大金融市場(chǎng)也陸續(xù)受到了沖擊,各國(guó)當(dāng)局紛紛頒布對(duì)應(yīng)的宏觀調(diào)控政策。但是,很快的,“凱恩斯流動(dòng)性陷阱”隨之而來(lái),常規(guī)經(jīng)典的貨幣調(diào)控工具失靈,在此背景下,量化寬松貨幣政策作為一種創(chuàng)新型、非傳統(tǒng)宏觀調(diào)控手段被美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所采納。2008年11月25日,美國(guó)量化寬松政策正式開啟,以美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布購(gòu)入抵押支持證券和機(jī)構(gòu)債為開端,在4輪QE政策后,自2014年1月起,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模,標(biāo)志著量化寬松貨幣政策的逐步退出。 自2001年我國(guó)加入WTO,2005年實(shí)行匯改,我國(guó)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系更加緊密,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)QE政策的實(shí)施及退出勢(shì)必對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)生一系列影響。截止到2013年,中美兩國(guó)仍互為對(duì)方第二大貿(mào)易伙伴,截止到2014年4月末,中國(guó)是美國(guó)最大的進(jìn)口商品來(lái)源地,第三大出口目的地,同時(shí)也是10多年來(lái)增長(zhǎng)速度最快的對(duì)外出口市場(chǎng)。所以,研究美國(guó)QE政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易的溢出效應(yīng)是重要且必要的。歐債危機(jī)以來(lái),歐盟啟動(dòng)了“歐版量化寬松貨幣政策”,日本在2013年4月初也決議施行“質(zhì)化量化寬松貨幣政策”,本文的研究也將為之后我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)歐盟和日本的量化寬松政策提供相應(yīng)的借鑒參考。 本文針對(duì)中美貿(mào)易進(jìn)行研究,并且把時(shí)間跨度延伸,從量化寬松政策的前奏到逐漸退出的今日,利用向量自回歸VAR模型研究美國(guó)QE政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易的溢出效應(yīng)。首先,綜合參考現(xiàn)有的研究成果,本文給出了與傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策比較下、與數(shù)量寬松和信貸寬松比較下美國(guó)量化寬松政策的定義。其次,系統(tǒng)地給出了4輪QE政策及其退出政策的起止時(shí)間和內(nèi)容,并簡(jiǎn)要回顧了其產(chǎn)生的效果。然后,進(jìn)行量化寬松政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易溢出效應(yīng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)分析,分別從匯率、國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格、利率、外商直接投資、美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇等角度研究QE政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易的影響,本文認(rèn)為這些溢出效應(yīng)不僅僅只對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)生消極影響,要遵從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)態(tài)勢(shì)演變,從正反兩方面、短期和長(zhǎng)期多角度加以考慮。接下來(lái),根據(jù)之前的理論分析,從計(jì)量統(tǒng)計(jì)的角度,對(duì)量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易溢出效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,本文建立向量自回歸VAR模型,進(jìn)行方差分解和建立脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)對(duì)美國(guó)QE政策對(duì)中美貿(mào)易的溢出效應(yīng)進(jìn)行復(fù)雜全面的動(dòng)態(tài)分析,得出在眾多選定指標(biāo)中,國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)總資產(chǎn)增加、外商直接投資等對(duì)中美貿(mào)易的影響最為顯著。最后,結(jié)合分析結(jié)果,從5個(gè)方面給出我國(guó)相應(yīng)的政策建議,包括減弱國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的沖擊、合理監(jiān)管和引導(dǎo)國(guó)際資金流動(dòng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型形成競(jìng)爭(zhēng)新優(yōu)勢(shì)、積極推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化、提升金融戰(zhàn)略能力等。
[Abstract]:Since the spring of 2006, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has gradually emerged, and the major financial markets around the world have been hit one after another in August 2007. The authorities of various countries have promulgated the corresponding macro-control policies one after another. However, soon, the Keynes liquidity Trap followed, and the conventional classic monetary control tools failed. In this context, quantitative easing monetary policy as an innovative, non-traditional macro-control means adopted by the Federal Reserve. On November 25, 2008, quantitative easing policy in the United States officially opened, starting with the Fed announced the purchase of mortgage-backed securities and institutional debt, after four rounds of QE policy, since January 2014, The Fed began to cut back on bond purchases, marking a gradual withdrawal from quantitative easing monetary policy. Since China joined the WTO, in 2001 and implemented the exchange rate reform in 2005, China has closer ties with the world economy. The implementation and withdrawal of the QE policy of the Federal Reserve is bound to have a series of effects on China. As of 2013, China and the United States were each other's second-largest trading partners. By the end of April 2014, China was the largest source of imports from the United States, the third largest export destination, and the fastest-growing foreign export market in more than a decade. Therefore, it is important and necessary to study the spillover effects of US QE policy on Sino-US trade. Since the European debt crisis, the European Union has launched the European version of quantitative easing monetary policy, and Japan also decided to implement the "qualitative quantitative easing monetary policy" in early April 2013. This study will also provide a reference for China to deal with the quantitative easing policy of the European Union and Japan in the future. In this paper, the trade between China and the United States is studied, and the time span is extended, from the prelude to quantitative easing policy to the gradual withdrawal today, using vector autoregression VAR model to study the spillover effect of American QE policy on Sino-US trade. First of all, referring to the existing research results, this paper gives the definition of quantitative easing policy in the United States compared with traditional monetary policy and quantitative easing and credit easing. Secondly, the starting and ending time and content of the four rounds of QE policy and its exit policy are given systematically, and the effects of the policy are briefly reviewed. Then, this paper makes a realistic analysis of the trade spillover effects of quantitative easing on China and the United States, and studies the impact of QE policy on Sino-US trade from the perspectives of exchange rate, international commodity prices, interest rates, foreign direct investment, and US economic recovery. This paper holds that these spillover effects not only have a negative impact on China, but also comply with the evolution of the global economic situation, and consider them from both positive and negative angles. Next, according to the previous theoretical analysis, from the perspective of econometric statistics, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the spillover effects of quantitative easing monetary policy on Sino-US trade. This paper establishes the vector autoregression VAR model, carries on the variance decomposition and establishes the impulse response function to carry on the complex and comprehensive dynamic analysis to the spillover effect of the US QE policy to the Sino-US trade, and draws the conclusion that among many selected indicators, the international commodity prices, The increase in total assets of the Federal Reserve and foreign direct investment have the most significant impact on Sino-US trade. Finally, combined with the results of the analysis, this paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions from five aspects, including weakening the impact of international commodity price fluctuations, reasonably supervising and guiding international capital flows, forming a new competitive advantage in economic transformation, actively promoting the internationalization of RMB, improving the financial strategic ability, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F752.7
本文編號(hào)：2501184
[Abstract]:Since the spring of 2006, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has gradually emerged, and the major financial markets around the world have been hit one after another in August 2007. The authorities of various countries have promulgated the corresponding macro-control policies one after another. However, soon, the Keynes liquidity Trap followed, and the conventional classic monetary control tools failed. In this context, quantitative easing monetary policy as an innovative, non-traditional macro-control means adopted by the Federal Reserve. On November 25, 2008, quantitative easing policy in the United States officially opened, starting with the Fed announced the purchase of mortgage-backed securities and institutional debt, after four rounds of QE policy, since January 2014, The Fed began to cut back on bond purchases, marking a gradual withdrawal from quantitative easing monetary policy. Since China joined the WTO, in 2001 and implemented the exchange rate reform in 2005, China has closer ties with the world economy. The implementation and withdrawal of the QE policy of the Federal Reserve is bound to have a series of effects on China. As of 2013, China and the United States were each other's second-largest trading partners. By the end of April 2014, China was the largest source of imports from the United States, the third largest export destination, and the fastest-growing foreign export market in more than a decade. Therefore, it is important and necessary to study the spillover effects of US QE policy on Sino-US trade. Since the European debt crisis, the European Union has launched the European version of quantitative easing monetary policy, and Japan also decided to implement the "qualitative quantitative easing monetary policy" in early April 2013. This study will also provide a reference for China to deal with the quantitative easing policy of the European Union and Japan in the future. In this paper, the trade between China and the United States is studied, and the time span is extended, from the prelude to quantitative easing policy to the gradual withdrawal today, using vector autoregression VAR model to study the spillover effect of American QE policy on Sino-US trade. First of all, referring to the existing research results, this paper gives the definition of quantitative easing policy in the United States compared with traditional monetary policy and quantitative easing and credit easing. Secondly, the starting and ending time and content of the four rounds of QE policy and its exit policy are given systematically, and the effects of the policy are briefly reviewed. Then, this paper makes a realistic analysis of the trade spillover effects of quantitative easing on China and the United States, and studies the impact of QE policy on Sino-US trade from the perspectives of exchange rate, international commodity prices, interest rates, foreign direct investment, and US economic recovery. This paper holds that these spillover effects not only have a negative impact on China, but also comply with the evolution of the global economic situation, and consider them from both positive and negative angles. Next, according to the previous theoretical analysis, from the perspective of econometric statistics, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the spillover effects of quantitative easing monetary policy on Sino-US trade. This paper establishes the vector autoregression VAR model, carries on the variance decomposition and establishes the impulse response function to carry on the complex and comprehensive dynamic analysis to the spillover effect of the US QE policy to the Sino-US trade, and draws the conclusion that among many selected indicators, the international commodity prices, The increase in total assets of the Federal Reserve and foreign direct investment have the most significant impact on Sino-US trade. Finally, combined with the results of the analysis, this paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions from five aspects, including weakening the impact of international commodity price fluctuations, reasonably supervising and guiding international capital flows, forming a new competitive advantage in economic transformation, actively promoting the internationalization of RMB, improving the financial strategic ability, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F752.7
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，本文編號(hào)：2501184
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