【摘要】：當(dāng)今,“一帶一路”作為一個(gè)重要的國(guó)際性合作倡議和戰(zhàn)略性的新理念新共識(shí)已經(jīng)被世界諸多國(guó)家提出和認(rèn)同,而中國(guó)作為絲綢之路的發(fā)源地之一,近年來(lái)與“海上新絲路”沿線國(guó)家的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系正在逐步加強(qiáng)、不斷增進(jìn)。因此,在全球需求已經(jīng)發(fā)生重大變化和“一帶一路”航線國(guó)家進(jìn)口需求迅速增長(zhǎng)的背景下,加強(qiáng)對(duì)海上新絲路沿線國(guó)家貨物進(jìn)口需求變化及其影響因素的研究,探討中國(guó)與海上絲綢之路國(guó)家經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的現(xiàn)狀、機(jī)遇以及現(xiàn)實(shí)合作空間顯得很有必要,也具有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在分析海上新絲路沿線國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和貨物進(jìn)口需求現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用規(guī)范分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合、定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)海上新絲路沿線國(guó)家貨物進(jìn)口需求的變動(dòng)情況及其影響因素進(jìn)行了深入研究。文章首先闡述了海上新絲路沿線國(guó)家貨物進(jìn)口需求的變動(dòng)情況,然后將23國(guó)分成3大航線來(lái)進(jìn)行研究,通過(guò)在要素含量層面將進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品需求按照HS(1992)分類(lèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)劃分成資源密集型產(chǎn)品、勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品、資本密集型產(chǎn)品、技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品這四大類(lèi),借助統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和圖表具體分析各大類(lèi)產(chǎn)品在總的進(jìn)口需求中的比重變化趨勢(shì),同時(shí)運(yùn)用Moore結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)指數(shù)來(lái)衡量進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品需求結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)程度。接著運(yùn)用面板模型分析方法探究影響貨物進(jìn)口需求變動(dòng)的影響因素,得出經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展、通貨膨脹和外商直接投資等因素對(duì)進(jìn)口需求具有促進(jìn)作用,而匯率、人口規(guī)模和金融危機(jī)對(duì)進(jìn)口需求具有一定的阻礙作用。文章最后結(jié)合中國(guó)與海上新絲路沿線國(guó)家的貿(mào)易概況,對(duì)如何穩(wěn)定促進(jìn)中國(guó)與海上新絲路沿線國(guó)家的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作提出針對(duì)性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Today, Belt and Road, as an important international cooperation initiative and strategic new concept and new consensus, has been put forward and recognized by many countries around the world, and China is one of the birthplaces of the Silk Road. In recent years, economic and trade relations with countries along the New Silk Road have been gradually strengthened. Therefore, against the background of the significant changes in global demand and the rapid growth in import demand from the countries on the "Belt and Road" route, the study of changes in the demand for imports of goods from countries along the New Silk Road at sea and their influencing factors has been strengthened. It is necessary and meaningful to discuss the present situation, opportunity and space of economic and trade cooperation between China and the maritime Silk Road countries. Based on the analysis of the level of economic development and the current situation of import demand of goods in the countries along the New Silk Road, this paper combines normative analysis with empirical analysis. The qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined to study the change of import demand of goods and its influencing factors in the countries along the New Silk Road. This paper first expounds the changes of the import demand of goods from countries along the New Silk Road, and then divides the 23 countries into three major routes for study. By classifying the demand for imported products according to the HS (1992) classification criteria at the factor content level into four categories: resource-intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products, technology-intensive products, they are classified into four categories: resource intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products and technology-intensive products. With the help of statistical data and charts, this paper analyzes the changing trend of the proportion of each kind of product in the total import demand, and uses the Moore structure change index to measure the change degree of the import product demand structure. Then using the panel model analysis method to explore the influence factors of goods import demand change, the economic level, the development of export trade, inflation and foreign direct investment and other factors to promote the import demand, but exchange rate, The size of population and the financial crisis have a certain impact on import demand. Finally, based on the general situation of trade between China and the countries along the New Silk Road, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to stably promote the economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the New Silk Road.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F746.11

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本文編號(hào)：2340613