【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和產(chǎn)品分割技術(shù)的深入發(fā)展,特定產(chǎn)品的全部生產(chǎn)過(guò)程被分割為不同組成部分,形成了以生產(chǎn)區(qū)段、工序和環(huán)節(jié)為對(duì)象的國(guó)際垂直專業(yè)化分工體系,導(dǎo)致全球范圍內(nèi)中間產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易額大幅上升。生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)是中間品貿(mào)易必不可少的中間投入,也是將分散的生產(chǎn)布局聯(lián)結(jié)起來(lái)的重要紐帶,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易與中間品貿(mào)易內(nèi)含著一種互動(dòng)機(jī)制。在國(guó)際垂直專業(yè)化分工背景下,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易與中間品貿(mào)易相互關(guān)系如何?兩者發(fā)展能否形成良性互動(dòng)關(guān)系?對(duì)這些問(wèn)題的解答直接關(guān)系到我國(guó)國(guó)際分工地位的改善以及對(duì)外貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。在理論分析基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易與中間品貿(mào)易互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了模型和機(jī)制分析。并據(jù)此提出如下假設(shè)：(1)中間品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易對(duì)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易存在正向影響;(2)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口依賴度對(duì)中間品出口貿(mào)易存在負(fù)向影響；(3)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)中間品出口貿(mào)易存在正向影響�；谏鲜黾僭O(shè)并借鑒前人做法,選取我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口變量作為中間品貿(mào)易水平替代變量,構(gòu)建三個(gè)向量誤差修正模型(VECM),對(duì)1997-2013年生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易與加工貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),并運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)以及沖擊反應(yīng)函數(shù)分析變量之間的短期動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。研究結(jié)果表明：(1)加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口與生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易之間存在正向長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口額的對(duì)數(shù)增加1%,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口額的對(duì)數(shù)上升0.9242%;加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口是生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的格蘭杰原因,后者則并非前者的格蘭杰原因;加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口對(duì)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口的擾動(dòng)第一期的響應(yīng)值為0,第十期響應(yīng)達(dá)到最大值0.5,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口對(duì)加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口的擾動(dòng)第一期響應(yīng)值約為0.6,第五期達(dá)到最大值0.9；(2)加工貿(mào)易出口與生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口依賴度之間存在負(fù)向長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口依賴度的對(duì)數(shù)增加1%,加工貿(mào)易出口額的對(duì)數(shù)下降0.9707%;生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口依賴度是加工貿(mào)易出口的格蘭杰原因,后者則不是前者的格蘭杰原因;加工貿(mào)易出口對(duì)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口依賴度擾動(dòng)的第一期響應(yīng)值為0,之后在-0.2左右水平上保持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)口依賴度對(duì)加工貿(mào)易出口的擾動(dòng)第一期響應(yīng)值約為1.2,第二期響應(yīng)達(dá)到最大值1.4左右；(3)加工貿(mào)易出口和生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力之間存在正向長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)數(shù)每上升1%,加工貿(mào)易出口額對(duì)數(shù)上升0.0531%；加工貿(mào)易出口與生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力之間存在雙向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系：加工貿(mào)易出口對(duì)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力擾動(dòng)的正向響應(yīng)在第五期達(dá)到最大值1.0后持續(xù)下降,生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)貿(mào)易國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)加工貿(mào)易出口擾動(dòng)的響應(yīng)在第三期達(dá)到最大值0.5,之后則呈現(xiàn)負(fù)向響應(yīng)。最后,從推動(dòng)生產(chǎn)者服務(wù)業(yè)與制造業(yè)的融合發(fā)展,積極承接國(guó)際服務(wù)外包業(yè)務(wù),促進(jìn)投資和貿(mào)易自由化,加強(qiáng)兩者互動(dòng)發(fā)展的體制機(jī)制建設(shè)等方面提出進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)兩者良性互動(dòng)發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and product segmentation technology, the whole production process of a particular product is divided into different parts, forming an international vertical specialization division of labor system with production sections, processes and links as the object, resulting in a substantial increase in the volume of intermediate products trade worldwide. Indispensable intermediate input is also an important link linking the decentralized production layout. producer service trade and intermediate goods trade contain an interactive mechanism. under the background of international vertical specialization, what is the relationship between producer service trade and intermediate goods trade? Can the development of the two forms a positive interactive relationship? On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the model and mechanism of the interaction between producer service trade and intermediate goods trade, and puts forward the following assumptions: (1) import and export of intermediate goods trade to producer service import and export. There is a positive impact on trade; (2) the degree of dependence on imports of producer services trade has a negative impact on export trade of intermediate goods; (3) the international competitiveness of producer services trade has a positive impact on export trade of intermediate goods. Three Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are constructed to test the data of producer service trade and processing trade from 1997 to 2013. Granger causality test and impact response function are used to analyze the short-term dynamic relationship between the variables. The results show that: (1) Import and export of processing trade and producer service import. There is a positive long-term equilibrium relationship between export trade and processing trade. The logarithm of import and export of processing trade increases by 1% and that of producer service trade increases by 0.9242%; processing trade import and export is the Granger cause of producer service import and export trade, while the latter is not the Granger cause of producer service import and export; processing trade import and export is the service of producer. The response value of the first phase of trade disturbance is 0, the tenth phase is 0.5, the first phase is 0.6, and the fifth phase is 0.9. (2) There is a negative long-term stable relationship between the export of processing trade and the import dependence of producer service trade. The logarithm of producer's dependence on import of service trade increases by 1%, and the logarithm of processing trade exports decreases by 0.9707%; producer's dependence on import of service trade is the Granger cause of processing trade exports, while the latter is not the Granger cause of the former; the first-stage response of processing trade exports to the disturbance of producer's dependence on import of service trade The first phase response value of producer's dependence on import of service trade to the disturbance of processing trade export is about 1.2, and the second phase response value is about 1.4. (3) There is a positive long-term stable relationship between processing trade export and producer's international competitiveness of service trade. The logarithm of international competitiveness of trade in services increases by 1%, and the logarithm of export value of processing trade increases by 0.0531%. There is a two-way Granger causality between export value of processing trade and international competitiveness of producer trade in services: the positive response of export value of processing trade to the disturbance of international competitiveness of producer trade in services reaches the maximum value of 1.0 in the fifth period. The international competitiveness of producer trade in services has reached a maximum of 0.5 in the third phase, and then showed a negative response. Finally, from promoting the integration of producer services and manufacturing, actively undertake international service outsourcing, promote investment and trade liberalization, and strengthen the interaction between the two. And put forward policy suggestions to further promote the positive interaction between them.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.68

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