本文選題：乳制品 + 引力模型�。� 參考：《東華大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在過去的幾十年間,中國的乳制品產(chǎn)業(yè)正在飛速發(fā)展,逐漸成為了中國經(jīng)濟的支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。但是,乳制品產(chǎn)業(yè)仍存在著一些問題,如供給-需求不平衡、科技創(chuàng)新能力缺失、安全監(jiān)管不嚴格等,導致中國現(xiàn)在仍是乳制品進口大國。目前,中國的乳制品進口來源較為單一,其乳制品的主要進口來源為新西蘭。隨著改革開放的進一步深入,中國已經(jīng)開始與歐盟、澳大利亞、東盟等國家和地區(qū)展開或者簽訂了自由貿易協(xié)定。自由貿易協(xié)定的簽訂和自由貿易區(qū)的建立,將對中國的進出口貿易產(chǎn)生巨大的影響,特別是對于乳制品進口,將有可能改變中國的乳制品產(chǎn)業(yè)結構。因此,本文綜合分析了中歐之間的貿易現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢,并結合中國的乳制品產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和乳制品貿易現(xiàn)狀,通過建立引力模型,研究中歐進口稅減低對中國乳制品進口貿易的影響,最后對中歐貿易區(qū)的發(fā)展趨勢和中國的應對策略進行了分析和建議。本文主要得到如下結論:1)雖然中國的乳制品產(chǎn)業(yè)保持快速而又穩(wěn)定的增長,且具有非常大的發(fā)展?jié)摿?中國的乳制品產(chǎn)品的附加價值不斷上升,而且中國乳制品在國內市場還存在供給與需求不平衡的現(xiàn)象、科技創(chuàng)新能力缺失、安全監(jiān)管不嚴格等問題。同事,歐盟能夠提供質量保證,價格合理的乳制品。因此,歐盟對中國乳制品出口進一步增長存在有利的條件。2)過去二十年中歐乳制品貿易分析表明,歐盟對中國乳制品出口有利條件的外在的和內在的原因是這些:歐盟牛奶配額限制取消;歐盟市場牛奶價格不穩(wěn)定的問題;俄羅斯食品禁運;中國人生活質量提高,牛奶消費模式有很大的變化;中國乳制品進口的條件有利;三聚氰胺事件與其他牛奶質量問題;歐盟品牌在中國的影響。3)中國的乳制品進口貿易存在貿易順差巨大、進口來源集中、貿易依存度逐漸增加等現(xiàn)狀。歐盟對中國乳制品出口增長的潛力很大。不過,在未來競爭仍將存在因為:別的國家,比如說新西蘭,美國乳制品非常有競爭力;有快速增長的乳制品市場,比如說印度;中國乳制品質量也不斷改進。同事,歐盟牛奶大部分是自給自足的,它的乳制品進口關稅很高。因此,中國對歐盟乳制品出口增長的潛力不大。4)通過建立中歐乳制品貿易引力模型,發(fā)現(xiàn):貿易雙方國家的GDP與中國乳制品進口貿易量存在顯著的正相關;中國人口數(shù)量與中國乳制品進口貿易量存在顯著的正相關,而歐盟乳制品貿易伙伴國的人口數(shù)量與中國的乳制品進口不存在顯著的相關性;貿易雙方的距離因素對中國乳制品進口貿易不存在明顯的相關性;中國的進口關稅稅率與乳制品進口貿易量之間存在顯著的負相關;人民幣-歐元之間的匯率與中國乳制品進口貿易量存在顯著的負相關性。5)中國對歐盟乳制品進口關稅稅率的降低分析表明,如果中國隊歐盟乳制品進口關稅稅率降低,還是兩個國家簽訂自由貿易區(qū)協(xié)議,中國對歐盟乳制品進口額將大幅增加。6)針對上述結論,中國的應對策略包括:(1)審慎對待各種不利影響,正確應對各種問題;(2)進一步加快貿易自由化,加強國內經(jīng)濟建設;(3)密切關注歐元匯率在未來的走勢并充分利用金融創(chuàng)新工具,以規(guī)避歐元兌人民幣匯率波動所帶來的風險。中國應該結合自身的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況,進一步加快貿易自由化的改革進程,盡快與歐盟達成自由貿易協(xié)定。如果中國與歐盟建立自由貿易區(qū),將必然會促進中國從歐盟進口乳制品,這一方面會使中國居民能夠享受到更多更加優(yōu)質的乳制品產(chǎn)品,另一方面也將對中國的乳制品產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生巨大的沖擊。未來中國需要對本國乳制品相關企業(yè)的發(fā)展足夠重視。
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, China's dairy industry is developing rapidly and gradually become one of the pillar industries in China's economy. However, there are still some problems in the dairy industry, such as the imbalance of supply and demand, the lack of scientific and technological innovation ability, and the lack of strict safety supervision, which are still the major importers of dairy products. China has begun to launch or sign free trade agreements with the EU, Australia, ASEAN and other countries and regions with the further deepening of the reform and opening up. The free trade agreement and the establishment of free trade zones will be China The import and export trade has a great influence, especially for the import of dairy products, it will be possible to change the Chinese dairy industry structure. Therefore, this paper analyzes the trade status and development trend of China and Europe, and combines the present situation of China's dairy industry and the present situation of dairy trade, and studies China Europe through the establishment of gravitational model. In the end, the following conclusions are made as follows: 1) although China's dairy industry has maintained rapid and stable growth, and has great potential for development, China's dairy products Additional value is rising, and there is still a phenomenon of imbalance between supply and demand in China's dairy products, lack of scientific and technological innovation and strict safety supervision. The European Union can provide quality assurance, reasonable price of dairy products. Therefore, the EU has a favorable condition for the further growth of Chinese dairy exports,.2) The analysis of China EU dairy trade over the past twenty years shows that the external and internal reasons for the EU's favorable conditions for Chinese dairy exports are these: the abolition of the EU's milk quota restrictions, the instability of the milk price in the EU market, the Russian food embargo, the increase in the living quality of China's life, and the great change in the consumption pattern of milk in China; China The conditions for the import of dairy products are favorable; the melamine event and other milk quality problems; the influence of the EU brand in China.3) China's dairy import trade has a huge trade surplus, the import source and the increasing trade dependence. The European Union has a great potential for the growth of Chinese dairy exports. However, the future competition still remains. It will be: other countries, such as New Zealand, American dairy products are very competitive; there is a fast growing dairy market, such as India, the quality of dairy products in China is constantly improving. Colleagues, the European Union milk is mostly self-sufficient, its dairy import tariffs are very high. Therefore, China's growth potential for the EU dairy exports .4) by establishing a gravitational model of China European dairy trade, it is found that there is a significant positive correlation between the GDP of the countries of the trade and the import of Chinese dairy products; there is a significant positive correlation between the number of Chinese population and the import trade of dairy products in China, and the population of the EU's dairy trade partners and the import of dairy products in China There is no significant correlation; the distance between the two sides of the trade does not have a significant correlation with the import trade of Chinese dairy products; there is a significant negative correlation between China's import tariff rate and the import trade volume of dairy products; there is a significant negative correlation between the exchange rate between the RMB and the euro and the import trade of Chinese dairy products.5 China The analysis of the import tariff rate of European Union dairy products shows that if the import tariff rate of the Chinese European Union dairy products is reduced, the two countries sign the free trade zone agreement, China will increase the import of the EU dairy products by a large.6. In view of the above conclusion, China's Countermeasures include: (1) the correct treatment of various adverse effects, correct To deal with all kinds of problems; (2) to further accelerate trade liberalization and strengthen domestic economic construction; (3) pay close attention to the future trend of the exchange rate of the euro and make full use of financial innovation tools to avoid the risks caused by the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB. If China and the EU establish a free trade zone, China will inevitably promote the import of dairy products from the EU, which will enable Chinese residents to enjoy more quality dairy products, and on the other hand it will have a huge impact on China's dairy industry. China needs to pay enough attention to the development of its dairy related enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：東華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.82;F752.7

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