本文選題：對外貿易結構 + 產業(yè)結構��； 參考：《廣東外語外貿大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近二十年來,廣東省的貿易格局和產業(yè)發(fā)展都取得了巨大的進步。但隨著人口紅利衰減,國際經濟格局深刻調整等一系列內因和外因的作用,廣東省經濟發(fā)展進入新的階段。廣東省產業(yè)發(fā)展面臨結構性問題,生產效率低下,中低端產業(yè)產能過剩,高端產業(yè)發(fā)展不足。在供給側結構性改革背景下,優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構,使產業(yè)結構轉型升級,實現(xiàn)經濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展成為改革的主要內容。在結構性改革背景下,廣東省對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構的互動關系如何?如何實現(xiàn)廣東省對外貿易結構轉換與產業(yè)結構升級的良性互動發(fā)展?這些問題都成為了亟待解決的熱點問題。本文從對外貿易商品結構和方式結構兩個角度研究了廣東省對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構的互動關系,為制定基于產業(yè)結構升級的廣東省對外貿易政策提供科學依據。首先,運用產業(yè)經濟學和國際貿易學的相關理論,介紹了對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構的相關概念和內涵,界定了本文的研究范圍。然后,通過描述1990-2015年廣東省對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構的演進過程及現(xiàn)狀,定性分析了廣東省對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構的關系。進一步,通過構建反映對外貿易結構和產業(yè)結構優(yōu)化程度的指數(shù),運用結構向量自回歸(SVAR)模型定量分析了對廣東省對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構的互動關系,并探究廣東省對外貿易結構變動對產業(yè)結構調整升級的影響路徑。最后,根據分析結果提出能夠促進廣東省產業(yè)結構升級的產業(yè)政策和貿易政策。研究結果表明,廣東省對外貿易結構與產業(yè)結構之間存在顯著的相互影響關系,進口結構與產業(yè)結構之間存在較強的相互促進關系,產業(yè)結構調整能夠促進出口結構變動,而出口結構變動并不能促進產業(yè)結構升級。因此,本文認為廣東省應積極發(fā)揮進口結構調整與產業(yè)結構升級的相互促進作用,加強出口結構調整對產業(yè)結構升級的促進作用,制定能夠促進產業(yè)結構升級的貿易政策,為供給側結構性改革提供良好的外部環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, Guangdong Province's trade pattern and industrial development have made great progress. However, with the decline of population dividend, the profound adjustment of international economic pattern and a series of internal and external factors, the economic development of Guangdong Province has entered a new stage. The industrial development of Guangdong Province is faced with structural problems, low production efficiency, overcapacity of middle and low-end industries and insufficient development of high-end industries. Under the background of supply-side structural reform, optimizing the industrial structure, upgrading the industrial structure and realizing the sustainable development of economy become the main contents of the reform. Under the background of structural reform, what is the interactive relationship between Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure? How to realize the benign and interactive development of foreign trade structure transformation and industrial structure upgrading in Guangdong Province? These problems have become a hot issue to be solved. This paper studies the interaction between the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure of Guangdong Province from the perspective of commodity structure and mode structure of foreign trade, and provides a scientific basis for formulating the foreign trade policy of Guangdong Province based on upgrading of industrial structure. First of all, using the relevant theories of industrial economics and international trade, this paper introduces the related concepts and connotations of foreign trade structure and industrial structure, and defines the scope of this paper. Then, by describing the evolution process and present situation of Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure from 1990 to 2015, this paper qualitatively analyzes the relationship between Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure. Furthermore, by constructing an index reflecting the degree of optimization of foreign trade structure and industrial structure, the interaction between foreign trade structure and industrial structure in Guangdong Province is quantitatively analyzed by using the structural vector autoregressive model (SVARM). And explore the foreign trade structure changes in Guangdong Province to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure of the impact of the path. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the industrial policies and trade policies which can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in Guangdong Province are put forward. The results show that there is a significant interaction between Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure, a strong mutual promotion relationship between import structure and industrial structure, and the adjustment of industrial structure can promote the change of export structure. The change of export structure can not promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, this paper holds that Guangdong Province should play an active role in promoting the adjustment of import structure and upgrading of industrial structure, strengthen the role of export structure adjustment in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, and formulate trade policies that can promote the upgrading of industrial structure. To provide a good external environment for structural reform on the supply side.
【學位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.8;F127

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