本文選題：服務貿(mào)易　切入點：服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級　出處：《山東財經(jīng)大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：自改革開放尤其是加入WTO以來,隨著對服務業(yè)重要性認識不斷加深,中國服務業(yè)得到了快速發(fā)展,但是與發(fā)達國家相比服務業(yè)發(fā)展相對落后且服務業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)并不是很合理,從而制約了我國經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。在經(jīng)濟全球化的時代背景下,國際因素成為促進一個國家產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化不可或缺的因素之一,特別是發(fā)達市場經(jīng)濟國家在服務業(yè)上具有比較優(yōu)勢,服務貿(mào)易作為跨境服務業(yè),其發(fā)展不僅會帶動服務業(yè)產(chǎn)值的增長,同時還可以通過服務貿(mào)易帶來的技術外溢、技術轉(zhuǎn)移、人力與資本積累以及改善服務貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)促進服務業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的升級。因此,我國應該更加重視服務貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,以提高服務行業(yè)水平,進而優(yōu)化服務業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),這對加快我國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整具有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。文章利用1984-2012年中國服務貿(mào)易及服務業(yè)發(fā)展的相關數(shù)據(jù),運用協(xié)整分析建立服務貿(mào)易出口額增長率、收入增長率及服務業(yè)產(chǎn)出率三者與服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的回歸模型,定量分析服務貿(mào)易與服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)究竟存在何種關系,并通過Granger因果檢驗得出,服務貿(mào)易與服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級之間存在因果關系。研究結(jié)果表明:服務貿(mào)易出口額增長率對服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整有正向作用,但其作用小于收入增長率,反映了服務貿(mào)易對服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用小于需求拉動服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用。而服務業(yè)產(chǎn)出率不是服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的原因,反映了當前服務業(yè)產(chǎn)出比例上,傳統(tǒng)服務業(yè)大于現(xiàn)代服務業(yè),使得服務業(yè)產(chǎn)出率對服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響不明顯。除此之外,通過服務貿(mào)易影響服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級機理的分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)服務貿(mào)易影響服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級中出現(xiàn)的問題:一是在產(chǎn)出增長率拉動上,傳統(tǒng)服務業(yè)仍然遠高于現(xiàn)代服務業(yè),這使得導致服務業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長率對服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響不明顯;二是服務業(yè)人力資本積累的增長速度較慢,導致服務貿(mào)易人力資本匱乏。并且根據(jù)所出現(xiàn)的問題,從繼續(xù)完善服務貿(mào)易管理機制、大力發(fā)揮政府作用、提高服務業(yè)引資力度、加快服務貿(mào)易專業(yè)人才的培養(yǎng)、優(yōu)化服務貿(mào)易內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)等六個方面提升服務貿(mào)易發(fā)展以促進服務業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after China's entry into WTO, with the deepening of the understanding of the importance of the service industry, China's service industry has developed rapidly, but compared with the developed countries, the development of the service industry is relatively backward and the internal structure of the service industry is not very reasonable.Thus restricting the sustainable development of our economy.Under the background of economic globalization, international factors have become one of the indispensable factors to promote the optimization of a country's industrial structure. Especially, the developed market economy countries have comparative advantages in the service industry, and trade in services is regarded as a cross-border service industry.Its development can not only promote the growth of service industry output value, but also promote the upgrading of service internal structure through technology spillover, technology transfer, manpower and capital accumulation and improvement of service trade structure.Therefore, our country should pay more attention to the development of service trade in order to improve the level of service industry, and then optimize the industrial structure of service industry, which has important strategic significance for speeding up the adjustment of economic structure of our country.Based on the data of China's service trade and the development of service industry from 1984 to 2012, the paper establishes the regression model between the growth rate of export value of service trade, the growth rate of income and the output rate of service industry and the structure of service industry by cointegration analysis.Quantitative analysis of the relationship between service trade and service structure, and through the Granger causality test, it is concluded that there is a causal relationship between service trade and service structural upgrading.The results show that the growth rate of export value of trade in services has a positive effect on the adjustment of service industry structure, but its effect is smaller than the growth rate of income.It reflects that the effect of service trade on the upgrading of service industry structure is less than that of demand-driven service industry structure upgrading.The output ratio of the service industry is not the reason of the service industry structure upgrading, which reflects that the traditional service industry is larger than the modern service industry, which makes the service industry output ratio have no obvious influence on the service industry structure upgrading.In addition, through the analysis of the mechanism of service trade influencing the upgrading of service industry structure, it is found that the problems in the service industry structure upgrading are as follows: first, the traditional service industry is still far higher than the modern service industry in terms of output growth rate.As a result, the growth rate of service output has little effect on the upgrading of service industry structure; second, the growth rate of human capital accumulation in service industry is slow, which leads to the shortage of human capital in service trade.And according to the problems, we should continue to improve the management mechanism of service trade, give full play to the role of the government, enhance the intensity of attracting investment in the service industry, and speed up the training of professionals in service trade.Optimize the internal structure of service trade and promote the development of service trade in order to promote the upgrading of service structure.
【學位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.68

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