本文選題：制造業(yè)　切入點(diǎn)：出口結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的全球化發(fā)展,出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,其對于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也產(chǎn)生了重要的影響作用。而在出口快速增長的同時(shí),出口貿(mào)易的不穩(wěn)定性和波動較為明顯,全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)暴露了大部分國家出口容易受到外部沖擊。在出口不穩(wěn)定性的成因中,出口結(jié)構(gòu)一直是最重要的影響因素,但對出口結(jié)構(gòu)方面的定量研究主要集中在商品結(jié)構(gòu)和市場結(jié)構(gòu),鮮有涉及技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)對出口不穩(wěn)定性的影響。而制造業(yè)作為一國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的引擎,與經(jīng)濟(jì)中其他部門存在緊密的聯(lián)系和溢出效應(yīng),是推動技術(shù)進(jìn)步的主要動力,所以本文構(gòu)建了制造業(yè)的“多維度”出口結(jié)構(gòu)體系,考察出口結(jié)構(gòu)對出口不穩(wěn)定性的影響,以提出有利于優(yōu)化出口結(jié)構(gòu)和促進(jìn)出口穩(wěn)定的針對性建議。本文在分析出口結(jié)構(gòu)影響出口不穩(wěn)定性機(jī)制的基礎(chǔ)上,測算了1999-2012年OECD國家及其主要貿(mào)易伙伴國的制造業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)值和各國出口不穩(wěn)定性指數(shù),并分析了變化趨勢,可知制造業(yè)出口商品集中度和出口技術(shù)復(fù)雜度都呈現(xiàn)上升的趨勢,而出口市場集中度總體呈現(xiàn)下降的趨勢;出口不穩(wěn)定性指數(shù)受到金融危機(jī)的影響呈現(xiàn)“M”型波動。同時(shí)結(jié)合系統(tǒng)GMM方法,實(shí)證研究了出口結(jié)構(gòu)對出口不穩(wěn)定性的影響。結(jié)果顯示:出口產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)復(fù)雜度越高,越有助于保持出口穩(wěn)定性;商品結(jié)構(gòu)越集中化則越容易導(dǎo)致出口不穩(wěn)定;而集中化的市場結(jié)構(gòu)在實(shí)證分析中表現(xiàn)出對出口穩(wěn)定微弱的促進(jìn)作用,但由于當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的開放性,各國卻呈現(xiàn)出市場多元化的趨勢�；趯�(shí)證結(jié)果,為平抑出口不穩(wěn)定性,促進(jìn)各國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,迫切需要提高出口產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量,實(shí)施出口多元化戰(zhàn)略,有效引進(jìn)外資,以更自如地應(yīng)對不確定性的國際貿(mào)易環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the scale of export trade is expanding, which has an important effect on economic development. While export is growing rapidly, the instability and fluctuation of export trade are obvious. The outbreak of the global financial crisis has exposed the vulnerability of most countries' exports to external shocks. Among the causes of export instability, the export structure has been the most important factor. However, quantitative studies on export structure are mainly focused on the structure of commodities and markets, and rarely on the impact of technological structure on export instability. Manufacturing is the engine of a country's economic development. There are close relations with other sectors of the economy and spillover effect, which is the main driving force to promote technological progress. Therefore, this paper constructs the "multi-dimensional" export structure system of manufacturing industry, and examines the impact of export structure on export instability. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of export structure influencing export instability, the paper puts forward some specific suggestions which are beneficial to the optimization of export structure and the promotion of export stability. The index value of manufacturing export structure and the export instability index of OECD countries and their main trading partners from 1999 to 2012 are calculated, and the changing trend is analyzed. It can be seen that the degree of concentration of manufacturing export commodities and the complexity of export technology are both increasing, while the degree of concentration of export market is on the whole decreasing; The impact of the financial crisis on the export instability index is of "M" type. At the same time, the impact of export structure on export instability is studied empirically with the system GMM method. The results show that the technical complexity of export products is higher. The more it helps to maintain export stability; the more centralized the commodity structure, the more likely it is to lead to export instability; and the more centralized the market structure, the weaker the contribution to export stability in empirical analysis, but due to the openness of today's world economy, On the basis of empirical results, in order to stabilize export instability and promote the sustained and stable development of national economies, there is an urgent need to increase the technical content of export products and implement export diversification strategies. Effective introduction of foreign investment to deal with the uncertainty of the international trading environment more freely.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.62

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