本文關(guān)鍵詞： 雙邊貨物貿(mào)易 貿(mào)易潛力 引力模型 中國 哈薩克斯坦　出處：《新疆大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2008年世界金融危機(jī)全面爆發(fā)以后,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)歷經(jīng)歷史性變化,陷入長期低迷階段。同時(shí),中亞地區(qū)因其地理位置優(yōu)勢及其所處的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段,其戰(zhàn)略地位及經(jīng)濟(jì)地位均迅速飆升。世界各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體為恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì),紛紛尋求區(qū)域間的經(jīng)濟(jì)合作,使其成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體合作的最主要形式,而因其主要表現(xiàn)形式是區(qū)域貿(mào)易,因此,與中亞地區(qū)的區(qū)域貿(mào)易就成為了世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間博弈的焦點(diǎn)。在激烈的博弈戰(zhàn)中,中國與中亞最具代表力的國家——哈薩克斯坦的雙邊貿(mào)易也越來越舉足輕重。自1991年底哈薩克斯坦獨(dú)立以來,中國與其建立了良好的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系,兩國的雙邊貨物貿(mào)易持續(xù)向好,且仍具有一定的可開拓空間。本文首先描述了中國與哈薩克斯坦2014年各自的國際貨物貿(mào)易狀況,并對兩國的雙邊貨物貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀從貿(mào)易規(guī)模及增長速度、貿(mào)易差額、貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)和具體貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品四個(gè)方面做出具體分析,認(rèn)為中國與哈薩克斯坦兩國雙邊貨物貿(mào)易發(fā)展態(tài)勢良好。然后,本文選取兩個(gè)貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)分析指數(shù),即貿(mào)易比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)(RCA)和貿(mào)易互補(bǔ)性指數(shù)(TCI),對兩國雙邊貨物貿(mào)易的互補(bǔ)性進(jìn)行研究,結(jié)果證明中國與哈薩克斯坦雙邊貨物貿(mào)易具有很強(qiáng)的互補(bǔ)性,即兩國存在進(jìn)行雙邊貿(mào)易的前提。接著,本文選取兩國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)、兩國的人口數(shù)(P)、兩國的地理距離、人民幣兌堅(jiān)戈的匯率以及虛擬變量是否是上海合作組織(SCO)成員為自變量,構(gòu)建貿(mào)易引力模型,并運(yùn)用IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0確立最優(yōu)的中國與哈薩克斯坦雙邊貨物貿(mào)易模型方程,研究表明中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)和人民幣兌堅(jiān)戈的匯率對中國與哈薩克斯坦雙邊貨物貿(mào)易的影響最為顯著。隨后,利用確立的最優(yōu)引力模型方程,對中國與哈薩克斯坦雙邊貨物貿(mào)易潛力進(jìn)行測算,得出結(jié)論認(rèn)為中國與哈薩克斯坦23年中16年的貨物貿(mào)易基本處于最優(yōu)狀態(tài),但仍有繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大的需要。最后,基于以上的理論分析和實(shí)證分析,本文從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)角度從國家、區(qū)域、企業(yè)層面分別提出相應(yīng)的對策建議,以推動(dòng)中國與哈薩克斯坦雙邊貨物貿(mào)易潛力的實(shí)現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:After the outbreak of the world financial crisis in 2008, the world economy experienced historic changes and fell into a long period of depression. At the same time, because of its geographical advantages and its economic development stage, Central Asia, Its strategic and economic status has soared rapidly. In order to revive its economy, the major economies of the world have sought interregional economic cooperation, making it the most important form of global economic cooperation, since its main manifestation is regional trade, Therefore, regional trade with Central Asia has become the focus of the game between the world's major economies. Bilateral trade between China and Kazakhstan, the most powerful country in Central Asia, has also become increasingly important. Since Kazakhstan became independent in end of 1991, China has established good economic and trade relations with Kazakhstan, and bilateral trade in goods between the two countries has continued to improve. This paper first describes the situation of international trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan in 2014, and analyzes the current situation of bilateral trade in goods in terms of the scale and growth rate of trade, and the trade balance. Four aspects of the structure of trade commodities and specific trade products are analyzed, and it is concluded that the development of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan is good. Then, this paper selects two trade statistics analysis indexes. The trade comparative advantage index (RCA) and the trade complementarity index (TCII) are used to study the complementarity of bilateral trade in goods between the two countries. The results show that the bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan is highly complementary. That is, the premise of bilateral trade between the two countries. Then, this paper selects the GDP of the two countries, the population of the two countries, the geographical distance between the two countries. The exchange rate of RMB to tenge and whether the fictitious variable is a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are independent variables. The trade gravitation model is constructed, and the optimal model equation of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan is established by using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0. The results show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) and the exchange rate of RMB against tenge have the most significant impact on bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan. By measuring the potential of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan, it is concluded that the goods trade between China and Kazakhstan in the past 23 years is basically optimal, but there is still a need for further expansion. Finally, Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the angle of regional economics from the national, regional and enterprise levels to promote the realization of the potential of bilateral trade in goods between China and Kazakhstan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.7;F753.61

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本文編號：1541665