本文關(guān)鍵詞： 廣東省 貿(mào)易引力模型 貿(mào)易潛力　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：地處中國(guó)沿海地區(qū)的廣東省,是我國(guó)典型的外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展區(qū),為我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放三十多年經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠高速發(fā)展的做出了重要貢獻(xiàn)。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢、美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略重心向亞太轉(zhuǎn)移、阿拉伯世界動(dòng)亂頻繁、中日關(guān)系日趨緊張以及東海、南海爭(zhēng)端不斷的時(shí)代背景下,廣東省經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展所依賴的對(duì)外貿(mào)易面臨著前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。為進(jìn)一步使廣東省的經(jīng)濟(jì)得到可持續(xù)發(fā)展,這需要我們?cè)诙嘣暯桥c世界視野中穿越歷史、現(xiàn)實(shí)與未來(lái),將國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、文化、宗教、科學(xué)技術(shù)等多方面相結(jié)合進(jìn)行研究。本文通過(guò)利用貿(mào)易引力模型,對(duì)廣東省與36個(gè)主要貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)(地區(qū))1993-2012年的貿(mào)易流,采用面板數(shù)據(jù)的方法估計(jì)貿(mào)易引力模型進(jìn)行回歸分析,以探討影響廣東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易的主要因素,特別是在加入WTO和區(qū)域貿(mào)易協(xié)定對(duì)貿(mào)易整體的作用,以及對(duì)廣東省的貿(mào)易潛力進(jìn)行分析。文章從廣東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易早期發(fā)展概況為出發(fā)點(diǎn),在從貿(mào)易總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力三個(gè)角度對(duì)廣東省的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,首先對(duì)貿(mào)易引力模型進(jìn)行了修正,并對(duì)樣本選擇和數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源進(jìn)行了分析。然后,通過(guò)對(duì)比不同的數(shù)據(jù)處理和回歸方法的選擇,對(duì)引力模型的設(shè)定和估計(jì)方法的選擇進(jìn)行了較為全面的分析。在各種方法估計(jì)結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇最合適的貿(mào)易引力模型方法,并分析了四個(gè)不同樣本的貿(mào)易引力模型的回歸結(jié)果,對(duì)模型的適用性進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。再次,運(yùn)用貿(mào)易引力模型對(duì)廣東省的貿(mào)易潛力進(jìn)行分析,估計(jì)一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)值,包括出口潛力和進(jìn)口潛力。最后,根據(jù)四個(gè)樣本貿(mào)易引力模型回歸分析結(jié)果和貿(mào)易潛力分析結(jié)果,給出主要結(jié)論,并期望能提供相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Guangdong Province, which is located in the coastal areas of China, is a typical export-oriented economic development area in China. It has made an important contribution to the rapid economic development of our country for more than 30 years of reform and opening up, and has been slowly recovering in the global economy. The strategic focus of the United States shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, the frequent turmoil in the Arab world, the growing tension between China and Japan, and the East China Sea, the South China Sea disputes in the background of the times. The foreign trade on which the rapid economic development of Guangdong Province depends is facing unprecedented challenges. In order to further make the economy of Guangdong Province sustainable development, we need to cross the history in the view of multiple perspectives and the world. Reality and future, the international economy, politics, culture, religion, science and technology and other aspects of the study. A regression analysis of trade flows between Guangdong Province and 36 major trading partner countries (regions) from 1993 to 2012 was carried out by using panel data to estimate trade gravity model. In order to explore the main factors affecting Guangdong's foreign trade, especially in the accession to WTO and regional trade agreements on the overall role of trade. From the perspective of the early development of foreign trade in Guangdong Province, the paper analyzes the trade potential of Guangdong Province. Based on the analysis of the trade situation in Guangdong Province from the perspective of structure and competitiveness, this paper first modifies the trade gravity model, and analyzes the sample selection and data source. By comparing the selection of different data processing and regression methods, the selection of gravity model and estimation method is analyzed comprehensively. On the basis of the estimation results of various methods. Choose the most suitable trade gravity model method, and analyze the regression results of four different samples of trade gravity model, and verify the applicability of the model. Using the trade gravity model to analyze the trade potential of Guangdong Province, estimate a forecast value, including export potential and import potential. Finally. According to the results of regression analysis of four sample trade gravity models and the results of trade potential analysis, the main conclusions are given, and the corresponding policy recommendations are expected to be provided.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8

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