本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于CGTM的中國(guó)主要木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易預(yù)測(cè)研究　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品對(duì)于全球各國(guó)的發(fā)展都有不可替代的作用,而每個(gè)國(guó)家木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品供需與進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易更是深刻地影響著國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)變化與社會(huì)穩(wěn)定。本文通過描述近年來國(guó)內(nèi)森林資源和主要木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀及變化趨勢(shì),估計(jì)木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品的供給和需求方程的參數(shù)、以此構(gòu)建CGTM模型來預(yù)測(cè)2013-2030年中國(guó)木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品供需及進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易變化趨勢(shì),并利用該模型對(duì)關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅貿(mào)易政策的影響進(jìn)行情景模擬分析,為中國(guó)的木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供參考依據(jù)。結(jié)果顯示,中國(guó)主要木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易在2013-2030年依然呈現(xiàn)出較快的增長(zhǎng),具體表現(xiàn)為原木、鋸材等原料性產(chǎn)品大量進(jìn)口,膠合板的大量出口,但是進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)速度有下降的趨勢(shì)。國(guó)內(nèi)木材供給能力有所提高,中國(guó)主要木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品供給來源問題趨于好轉(zhuǎn)。但是,國(guó)內(nèi)木材的供給結(jié)構(gòu)可能無法滿足需求,對(duì)外依存度依然較高。本文通過政策模擬4個(gè)政策假設(shè),得出取消關(guān)稅壁壘對(duì)中國(guó)木材貿(mào)易有正向影響,且幅度較大；在取消關(guān)稅壁壘的情況下,限制原木出口政策對(duì)中國(guó)木材貿(mào)易仍有正向影響,但是對(duì)取消關(guān)稅壁壘有一定的抑制作用,影響幅度較為明顯；取消關(guān)稅壁壘情景下,技術(shù)性壁壘對(duì)中國(guó)木材貿(mào)易仍呈現(xiàn)正向影響,但是對(duì)取消關(guān)稅政策有抑制,影響幅度沒有限制原木出口明顯；森林認(rèn)證的繼續(xù)推行使得中國(guó)原木、鋸材和木漿的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易變化趨于穩(wěn)定,但是對(duì)于中國(guó)膠合板貿(mào)易變化比較動(dòng)蕩,不過還是起到一定的抵消作用。結(jié)合上述分析得出,對(duì)中國(guó)林產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的政策建議：(1)完善林產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易政策,完善我國(guó)林產(chǎn)品相關(guān)技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和規(guī)范,建立本國(guó)森林認(rèn)證體系與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及加強(qiáng)溝通合作和政府引導(dǎo)獲得木材供給的新渠道;(2)完善林業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼政策以及林產(chǎn)品加工技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:Wood forest products play an irreplaceable role in the development of countries all over the world. The supply and demand of woody forest products and import and export trade in each country have a profound impact on the economic changes and social stability of the country. This paper describes the current situation of import and export trade of forest resources and main wood forest products in China in recent years. Trends. The parameters of supply and demand equation of woody forest products were estimated, and the CGTM model was constructed to predict the change trend of supply and demand and import and export trade of wood forest products in China from 2013 to 2030. The model is used to simulate the impact of tariff and non-tariff trade policies to provide a reference for the market of wood forest products and the development of forestry industry in China. The import and export trade of China's main woody forest products continued to show a rapid growth in 2013-2030, which was manifested in the massive import of raw materials such as logs, sawwood and the export of plywood. However, the import growth rate has a downward trend. The domestic timber supply capacity has improved, and the supply source of China's main wood forest products tends to improve. However, the domestic timber supply structure may not be able to meet the demand. Through the policy simulation of four policy assumptions, the removal of tariff barriers has a positive impact on China's timber trade, and the extent is large; In the case of removing tariff barriers, the policy of restricting the export of logs still has a positive effect on China's timber trade, but it has a certain restraining effect on the removal of tariff barriers, and the extent of influence is obvious. Under the scenario of removing tariff barriers, TBT still has a positive impact on China's timber trade, but it has a restraining effect on the elimination of tariff policies, and the scope of influence is not obvious to restrict the export of logs. The continued implementation of forest certification has stabilized China's import trade in logs, sawn timber and wood pulp, but has been more volatile for China's plywood trade. According to the above analysis, the policy suggestion on China's forest products trade is proposed to improve the import and export policy of forest products, and to perfect the relevant technical standards and norms of China's forest products. Establishing national forest certification systems and standards and strengthening communication and cooperation and new government channels for access to timber supply; 2) to improve the financial subsidy policy of forestry industry and the innovation and improvement of processing technology of forest products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.6;F426.88

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