本文關鍵詞：乳制品安全事件對我國乳制品進口貿易的影響　出處：《安徽財經大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 中國 乳制品安全事件 進口貿易 演化博弈論 影響因素

【摘要】：當前,人們對食品的質量要求越來越高,食品安全已經成為大眾普遍關注的問題。乳制品一直被認為是營養(yǎng)最完善的食品,也是增強人民體質的重要農產品。隨著改革開放政策的實行和我國的成功入世,政府積極調整農業(yè)產業(yè)政策,鼓勵并扶持乳牛養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的發(fā)展,使得我國乳制品在生產和消費上都有了很大的發(fā)展。2007年我國乳類總產量從上世紀90年代初低于500萬噸的水平增加到3633萬噸,年均增速達13.7%；城鄉(xiāng)居民乳制品消費量也以年均10%的速度增長。然而,自2008年我國爆發(fā)“三聚氰胺”事件后,乳制品行業(yè)安全問題多次發(fā)生,對我國的乳制品的生產和消費造成了重大打擊,不僅乳業(yè)發(fā)展緩慢,消費者對國產乳制品的信心也大幅下降。從20世紀90年代中期開始,我國就已成為乳制品凈進口國,但貿易逆差增長幅度較小。在國內乳制品安全事件的催化下,我國乳制品進口量短時間內驟增,2013年貿易逆差已由2007年的5億美元增加到51億美元。 本文從國內頻發(fā)的乳制品安全事件出發(fā),在系統地分析我國乳制品進口貿易特點之后,通過演化博弈理論對我國進口貿易機制進行了分析,并且將乳制品安全事件對乳制品進口的影響進行了實證研究。主要內容包括：首先,通過大量的數據圖表,分析了乳制品安全事件發(fā)生后我國乳制品進口貿易的特征,結果發(fā)現在安全事件的催化下,乳制品進口數量和金額大幅增加。其次,通過數據分析乳制品安全事件對我國乳制品消費和乳類生產方面的影響,利用演化博弈理論說明乳制品安全事件對進口貿易的影響機制。最后,根據前文分析,通過回歸模型對影響我國乳制品進口貿易的影響因素進行了實證分析,認為乳制品的消費、生產和頻發(fā)的安全事件是主要因素,并提出相關政策建議。
[Abstract]:At present, people demand higher and higher quality of food, food safety has become a common concern of the public. Dairy products have been considered as the most nutritious food. With the implementation of the reform and opening up policy and China's successful accession to the WTO, the government actively adjusted the agricultural industry policy, encouraged and supported the development of dairy cattle industry. In 2007, the total production of dairy products in China increased to 36.33 million tons from the level below 5 million tons at the beginning of -10s. The average annual growth rate is 13.7%; The dairy consumption of urban and rural residents is also increasing at an average rate of 10% per year. However, since the "melamine" incident broke out in China in 2008, the dairy industry safety problems have occurred many times. It has caused a great blow to the production and consumption of dairy products in our country. Not only the development of dairy industry is slow, but also the confidence of consumers in domestic dairy products has declined substantially. Since the middle of 1990s. China has become a net importer of dairy products, but the increase of trade deficit is relatively small. Under the catalysis of domestic dairy safety events, the import of dairy products in China has increased sharply in a short period of time. In 2013, the trade deficit increased to $5.1 billion from $500 million in 2007. Starting from the frequent domestic dairy product safety events, this paper analyzes the mechanism of China's import trade through evolutionary game theory after systematically analyzing the characteristics of China's dairy import trade. And the impact of dairy safety events on dairy imports is empirically studied. The main contents include: first, through a large number of data charts. This paper analyzes the characteristics of dairy import trade in China after the safety incident of dairy products. The results show that the quantity and amount of dairy imports increase greatly under the catalysis of safety events. Secondly. Through the data analysis of dairy products safety events on dairy products consumption and dairy production impact, using evolutionary game theory to explain the impact of dairy safety events on import trade mechanism. Finally, according to the previous analysis. Based on the regression model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the influencing factors on the import trade of dairy products in China, and concludes that the consumption, production and frequent safety incidents of dairy products are the main factors, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：安徽財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.82;F752.61

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