【摘要】：服務(wù)貿(mào)易是一個國家開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分。特別是進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)50年代以來，以服務(wù)業(yè)和服務(wù)貿(mào)易為主體的服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速崛起。我國自2001年加入WTO后，服務(wù)貿(mào)易發(fā)展十分迅猛，規(guī)模日益擴(kuò)大。2013年，我國已經(jīng)成為世界第三大服務(wù)貿(mào)易國。值得一提的是，在我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易持續(xù)呈現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)的同時，我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口和進(jìn)口的不平衡的問題也突顯了出來：我國對外服務(wù)貿(mào)易在1982年還有6億美元的順差，但此后順差便不斷減少，并最終發(fā)展成逆差——2012年我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差已經(jīng)達(dá)到897億美元。 在影響一國國際貿(mào)易的眾多因素中，匯率作為最為敏感的主要影響因素之一，其水平和變動情況構(gòu)成了國際貿(mào)易風(fēng)險的主要內(nèi)容。匯率變動將直接對一國商品的出口成本和貿(mào)易收支情況產(chǎn)生影響。在研究領(lǐng)域，絕大部分關(guān)于匯率變動對國際貿(mào)易影響的文獻(xiàn)都側(cè)重圍繞對貨物貿(mào)易的影響而鋪敘，而針對匯率變動與服務(wù)貿(mào)易的關(guān)系的研究并不多。本文運(yùn)用我國1995至2012年的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支數(shù)據(jù),以不完全替代模型為基礎(chǔ)建立了我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支逆差模型,從而對人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系展開了實(shí)證研究。結(jié)論表明人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易收支逆差存在負(fù)影響：即人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)增大（間接標(biāo)價法）即人民幣升值將導(dǎo)致我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差減少。 文章主體共分為四個部分，第一部分首先介紹了匯率的基本知識和實(shí)際匯率的測算方法，重點(diǎn)梳理了有關(guān)匯率與國際貿(mào)易之間關(guān)系的幾大經(jīng)典理論和學(xué)說。第二章主要闡述我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的概況，從規(guī)模和行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩個角度闡述了我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和特點(diǎn)，并著重討論了當(dāng)前我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易所呈現(xiàn)的幾大問題。第三章是實(shí)證分析部分，采用加權(quán)最小二乘法對我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差與人民幣實(shí)際匯率之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。第四章闡述結(jié)論，并根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果結(jié)合我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易的實(shí)際發(fā)展情況對我國服務(wù)貿(mào)易如何穩(wěn)健和全面地發(fā)展提出了建議。
[Abstract]:Service trade is an important part of a country's open economy. Especially since 1950's, the service economy with service and service trade as the main body has risen rapidly. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the service trade has been developing rapidly and expanding day by day. In 2013, China has become the third largest service trading country in the world. It is worth mentioning that while China's trade in services continues to show strong performance, the imbalance in the export and import of China's trade in services is also highlighted: in 1982, China's foreign trade in services still had a surplus of US $600 million. But since then, the surplus has dwindled and eventually turned into a deficit-China's service trade deficit reached $89.7 billion in 2012. Among the many factors that affect a country's international trade, the exchange rate, as one of the most sensitive factors, its level and changes constitute the main content of the risk of international trade. Exchange rate changes will directly affect the export cost and trade balance of a country's goods. In the field of research, most of the literatures on the impact of exchange rate changes on international trade focus on the impact on trade in goods, but there are few studies on the relationship between exchange rate changes and trade in services. Based on the data of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the income and expenditure of trade in services from 1995 to 2012 in China, this paper sets up the deficit model of the trade in services based on the incomplete substitution model. Thus, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the income and expenditure of China's trade in services. The conclusion shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on the balance of payment deficit of China's trade in services. The main body of the article is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the basic knowledge of the exchange rate and the calculation method of the real exchange rate, focusing on some classical theories and theories about the relationship between the exchange rate and the international trade. The second chapter mainly expounds the general situation of our country's service trade, expounds the present situation and characteristics of our country's service trade from the angle of scale and industry structure, and emphatically discusses some major problems presented by our country's service trade at present. The third chapter is the empirical analysis, the weighted least square method is used to analyze the relationship between the trade deficit in services and the real exchange rate of RMB. The fourth chapter expounds the conclusion, and according to the empirical results combined with the actual development of China's trade in services, puts forward some suggestions on how to develop China's trade in services steadily and in an all-round way.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.68;F832.6

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