【摘要】：美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引起了全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),帶來的負(fù)面影響,從美國(guó)擴(kuò)散到其他國(guó)家,進(jìn)而從發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家擴(kuò)散至新興發(fā)展中國(guó)家,負(fù)面影響逐步波及全世界；另一方面,又由于此次金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生是在金融原生品和金融衍生品兩方面的雙重危機(jī),因此它的負(fù)面影響更加巨大,從金融領(lǐng)域擴(kuò)散到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)相互影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡和對(duì)外貿(mào)易萎縮相互制約。2008年全球性的金融危機(jī)全面爆發(fā)之后,世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭減弱,經(jīng)濟(jì)開始衰退,貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭,并且出現(xiàn)了一些新的趨勢(shì),世界各國(guó)之間貿(mào)易摩擦日益頻繁。為了緩解危機(jī),各國(guó)紛紛尋找應(yīng)對(duì)之策,然而,貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義暗涌潺動(dòng),一些國(guó)家和地區(qū)紛紛采取緊縮的對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策。中國(guó)作為貿(mào)易大國(guó),即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的情況下,2009年仍舊成為了世界第一出口大國(guó)。因此我國(guó)成為了世界各國(guó)發(fā)起貿(mào)易保護(hù)的目標(biāo)；其次,由于我國(guó)自身出口產(chǎn)品的構(gòu)成、出口產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)方面的原因,新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義在現(xiàn)階段情況下會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)生較大的負(fù)面影響。因此我國(guó)政府、對(duì)外貿(mào)易行業(yè)、對(duì)外貿(mào)易企業(yè)應(yīng)采取相應(yīng)措施,積極的應(yīng)對(duì)。本文從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面研究分析,金融危機(jī)以來,新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響。本文首先從理論方面分析了新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義在金融危機(jī)以來,在現(xiàn)代特有的背景下,其形式及其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,并重點(diǎn)分析此次新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義具有的特征：貿(mào)易保護(hù)主體具有全球性和區(qū)域性特點(diǎn)；貿(mào)易保護(hù)的范圍逐漸變大、貿(mào)易保護(hù)所涉及的行業(yè)領(lǐng)域增多,除了要保護(hù)傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)的以外,各國(guó)還對(duì)自己國(guó)家的金融業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、高技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)等進(jìn)行了不同程度的保護(hù),即被保護(hù)的產(chǎn)品與被保護(hù)的行業(yè)更為廣泛；貿(mào)易保護(hù)手段紛繁復(fù)雜,各國(guó)不僅使用傳統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅壁壘、進(jìn)出口限額、反傾銷反補(bǔ)貼等直接貿(mào)易保護(hù)手段,更轉(zhuǎn)而使用隱蔽的間接的貿(mào)易保護(hù)手段,例如技術(shù)壁壘、綠色壁壘等；搶占國(guó)外市場(chǎng)成為了各國(guó)在金融危機(jī)后對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策的目的之一,各國(guó)紛紛制定干預(yù)國(guó)內(nèi)、國(guó)外市場(chǎng)的政策,以保護(hù)本國(guó)民族產(chǎn)業(yè)。其次,分析金融危機(jī)之后新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義對(duì)我國(guó)的影響：對(duì)外貿(mào)易進(jìn)口總額和對(duì)外貿(mào)易出口總額都有下滑；我國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易備受打擊嚴(yán)重；我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)利用外資的比率較以前降低：產(chǎn)業(yè)安全形勢(shì)不容樂觀；影響我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。本文在實(shí)證研究中,由于貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的手段紛繁復(fù)雜,涉及對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施貿(mào)易保護(hù)手段的國(guó)家數(shù)目眾多,其中,中美兩國(guó)間貿(mào)易具有典型性,因此。選取美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的反傾銷對(duì)中國(guó)的影響來進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,分析新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義對(duì)中國(guó)造成哪些方面的影響。實(shí)證中,用中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易額、中美兩國(guó)GDP、實(shí)際有效匯率、反傾銷調(diào)查裁定結(jié)果以及反傾銷稅率作為變量,來分析金融危機(jī)后新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的抬頭和我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易之間的相互關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,美國(guó)針對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施反傾銷的舉措只能起到短期的抑制作用,這并不是美國(guó)可以用來調(diào)節(jié)貿(mào)易平衡的長(zhǎng)期之策。然而,貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施是一把雙刃劍,無論是對(duì)于出口國(guó)還是進(jìn)口國(guó)來說,都是有利有弊。同樣,我國(guó)作為世界進(jìn)出口大國(guó)來,在這種情形之下,貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義對(duì)我國(guó)的影響不單單是有消極的一面,也有其積極的一面。本文就種其影響的雙面性進(jìn)行了具體的分析,并且提出了相應(yīng)的對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:The United States subprime crisis has caused a global economic crisis, a negative impact, from the spread of the United States to other countries and, in turn, from developed countries to emerging developing countries, with a negative impact on the world; on the other hand, As a result of the financial crisis, it is a double crisis in both the financial and the financial derivatives, so its negative impact is more significant, from the financial field to the solid economic field, the economic crisis and the entity economic crisis influence each other, In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, the economic growth of the major economies of the world has weakened, the economy has begun to decline, trade protectionism is rising, and a number of new trends have emerged, Trade friction between countries of the world is becoming more and more frequent. In order to alleviate the crisis, countries are looking for ways to deal with. However, trade protectionism is in the dark, and some countries and regions have adopted a tight foreign trade policy. China, as a major trading country, remains the world's first-largest exporter in 2009, even in the context of the economic crisis. Therefore, our country has become the goal of the world to launch the trade protection; secondly, because of the structure of our own export products and the reason of the export industrial structure, the new trade protectionism will have a great negative impact on our country at this stage. Therefore, the government, foreign trade and foreign trade enterprises should take corresponding measures and respond positively. This paper studies the influence of new trade protectionism on China's foreign trade since the financial crisis. This paper first analyzes the new trade protectionism in the context of the modern characteristic, its form and its conduction mechanism since the financial crisis, and analyzes the characteristics of this new trade protectionism. The scope of trade protection gradually increases, and the trade protection covers an increase in the field of industry. In addition to protecting the traditional industry, countries have different degrees of protection for the financial industry, service industry, high-tech industry, etc. of their own countries, that is, the protected product is more extensive than the protected industry; the trade protection means are complicated, and the countries not only use the direct trade protection means such as the traditional tariff, the import and export limit, the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy and the like, and more in turn use the hidden indirect trade protection means, For example, technical barriers, green barriers, and the like; to seize foreign markets and become one of the purposes of foreign trade policies after the financial crisis, countries have developed policies to intervene in the domestic and foreign markets to protect the national industry. Secondly, after the analysis of the financial crisis, the effect of the new trade protectionism on our country: the total import of foreign trade and the total export of foreign trade have been declining; China's processing trade has been hit seriously; the ratio of domestic use of foreign capital in China is lower than that of the previous year: the industry security situation is not optimistic; The stable operation of China's domestic economy is affected. In the empirical study, because of the complexity of the means of trade protectionism, the number of countries involved in the implementation of trade protection measures in China is numerous, among which, the trade between China and the United States is typical, and therefore. An empirical analysis of China's anti-dumping effect on China is chosen to analyze the effects of new trade protectionism on China. In this paper, the relationship between the rise of the new trade protectionism and the foreign trade between China and China is analyzed by the trade volume of China's export products, the GDP of China and the United States, the actual effective exchange rate, the result of the anti-dumping investigation and the anti-dumping duty rate as the variable. The empirical results show that the United States has only a short-term effect on China's anti-dumping initiative, which is not a long-term strategy that the United States can use to regulate trade balance. However, trade protection measures are a double-edged sword, both for exporting and importing countries. In the same way, our country, as the world's import and export country, in this situation, the influence of trade protectionism on our country is not only a negative one, but also has its positive side. In this paper, the two-sided property of the effect is analyzed, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F832.59

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