不確定性與中國城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄率的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-28 13:22
【摘要】：本文從不確定性收入、社會保險的參與情況對中國城鎮(zhèn)居民面臨的不確定性進行了界定,并使用2006年中國綜合社會調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)(CGSS2006)檢驗了不確定性對城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄率的影響�；诜�(wěn)健OLS和可行廣義最小二乘法(FGLS)的估計結(jié)果表明:不確定性收入與城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄率之間存在著顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,參加養(yǎng)老保險和醫(yī)療保險可以顯著降低城鎮(zhèn)居民的儲蓄率。分位數(shù)回歸的結(jié)果進一步顯示:在各分位處,不確定性收入均對城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄率產(chǎn)生了顯著的正向影響,并且影響強度隨著儲蓄率分位的上升而下降;而在儲蓄率分布的0.5及以上中高分位處,參加養(yǎng)老保險可以顯著降低城鎮(zhèn)家庭的儲蓄率;在儲蓄率分布的頂端,參加醫(yī)療保險也與城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄率之間表現(xiàn)出顯著的負相關(guān)關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:In this paper, uncertainty of urban residents in China is defined from uncertain income and participation of social insurance, and the effect of uncertainty on savings rate of urban residents is tested by using China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS2006) data in 2006. Based on the estimation results of robust OLS and feasible generalized least square (FGLS), it is shown that there is a significant positive correlation between the uncertain income and the saving rate of urban residents. Participation in endowment insurance and medical insurance can significantly reduce the savings rate of urban residents. The results of quantile regression further showed that the uncertain income had a significant positive effect on the saving rate of urban residents at each quantile, and the influence intensity decreased with the increase of the saving rate. In the middle and high score of the distribution of savings rate, participating in pension insurance can significantly reduce the saving rate of urban households. At the top of the distribution of savings rate, there is a significant negative correlation between the participation of medical insurance and the saving rate of urban residents.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大招標項目“貫徹落實科學(xué)發(fā)展觀與加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式研究”(07&ZD009) 國家自然科學(xué)基金“增強自主創(chuàng)新能力提升經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量研究”(71073076)的資助
【分類號】：F224;F832.22
[Abstract]:In this paper, uncertainty of urban residents in China is defined from uncertain income and participation of social insurance, and the effect of uncertainty on savings rate of urban residents is tested by using China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS2006) data in 2006. Based on the estimation results of robust OLS and feasible generalized least square (FGLS), it is shown that there is a significant positive correlation between the uncertain income and the saving rate of urban residents. Participation in endowment insurance and medical insurance can significantly reduce the savings rate of urban residents. The results of quantile regression further showed that the uncertain income had a significant positive effect on the saving rate of urban residents at each quantile, and the influence intensity decreased with the increase of the saving rate. In the middle and high score of the distribution of savings rate, participating in pension insurance can significantly reduce the saving rate of urban households. At the top of the distribution of savings rate, there is a significant negative correlation between the participation of medical insurance and the saving rate of urban residents.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大招標項目“貫徹落實科學(xué)發(fā)展觀與加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式研究”(07&ZD009) 國家自然科學(xué)基金“增強自主創(chuàng)新能力提升經(jīng)濟增長質(zhì)量研究”(71073076)的資助
【分類號】：F224;F832.22
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
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2 孟昕,黃少卿;中國城市的失業(yè)、消費平滑和預(yù)防性儲蓄[J];經(jīng)濟社會體制比較;2001年06期
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