【摘要】：外商直接投資為一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展給予了額外的資金支持,而匯率變動(dòng)通過(guò)影響一國(guó)吸收外商直接投資的能力,間接的對(duì)一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整產(chǎn)生作用。為了適應(yīng)國(guó)際金融發(fā)展,2005年中央人民銀行進(jìn)行了人民幣匯率改革,人民幣匯率彈性顯著增加,人民幣升值預(yù)期也逐漸加強(qiáng),并在這幾年中人民幣升值的壓力一直存在,不僅人民幣對(duì)美元匯率一路上升,而且實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)在近幾年來(lái)高速攀升,屢創(chuàng)新高。國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者認(rèn)為一國(guó)匯率水平的變化將會(huì)對(duì)其外資流入產(chǎn)生極其深刻的影響,因此人民幣升值已成為影響我國(guó)FDI流入的不可忽視的重要影響因素。當(dāng)前我國(guó)正面臨著越來(lái)越大的國(guó)內(nèi)外不平衡,美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)和全球金融危機(jī)使得世界范圍內(nèi)的外商直接投資放緩,對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也帶來(lái)了負(fù)面影響。因此,在人民幣持續(xù)升值的宏觀背景下,研究人民幣匯率變動(dòng),尤其是人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)FDI流入的影響就顯得尤為重要。 本文采用理論和實(shí)證相結(jié)合的辦法,對(duì)人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)吸引FDI流入的不同影響進(jìn)行了分析,實(shí)證部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)主要來(lái)源于中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和IMF等相關(guān)政府機(jī)構(gòu)網(wǎng)站。論文第一章首先詳細(xì)介紹了選題的具體背景和相關(guān)研究方法。第二章對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了梳理和評(píng)述。第三章分析了中國(guó)外匯變動(dòng)和FDI發(fā)展的歷史與現(xiàn)狀,同時(shí)對(duì)中國(guó)吸收FDI的來(lái)源地、地區(qū)分布和行業(yè)分布進(jìn)行了專門分析：我國(guó)吸收FDI來(lái)源地仍然高度集中,制造業(yè)仍然是外商直接投資的第一選擇。在地區(qū)選擇上,東部地區(qū)吸引外商直接投資的優(yōu)勢(shì)依然存在。第四章分析了匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)FDI影響的機(jī)制,主要有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)效應(yīng),財(cái)富效應(yīng),部門效應(yīng)和心理預(yù)期效應(yīng)等。第五章為論文的實(shí)證部分,通過(guò)平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)和協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)(Cointegration test)從整體角度研究了人民幣實(shí)際匯率和中國(guó)FDI流入之間的具體相關(guān)性。最后研究了人民幣升值的趨勢(shì)對(duì)中國(guó)吸收FDI的影響,結(jié)合理論分析和實(shí)證研究,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) provides additional financial support for the economic development of a country, and exchange rate fluctuations indirectly affect a country's economic development and industrial structure adjustment by affecting the ability of a country to absorb foreign direct investment (FDI). In order to adapt to the development of international finance, the Central people's Bank of China carried out the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005. The RMB exchange rate elasticity has increased significantly, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been gradually strengthened. In recent years, the pressure of RMB appreciation has always existed. Not only does the yuan rise against the dollar, but the real effective exchange rate index has risen at a high rate in recent years. Domestic and foreign scholars believe that the change of a country's exchange rate level will have a profound impact on the inflow of foreign capital, so the appreciation of RMB has become an important factor that can not be ignored to affect the inflow of FDI in China. At present, China is facing more and more imbalance at home and abroad. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the global financial crisis have slowed down the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world, which has also brought negative impact to the Chinese economy. Therefore, under the macro background of RMB continuous appreciation, it is particularly important to study the impact of RMB exchange rate change, especially RMB appreciation, on the inflow of FDI in China. This paper analyzes the different effects of RMB appreciation on China's attracting FDI inflow by combining theory and practice. The empirical data are mainly from the websites of relevant government agencies such as China Statistical Yearbook and IMF. The first chapter introduces the background and research methods of the topic in detail. The second chapter reviews the related researches at home and abroad. The third chapter analyzes the history and present situation of China's foreign exchange change and FDI development. At the same time, it makes a special analysis of the origin, regional distribution and industry distribution of China's absorption of FDI: the origin of China's absorption of FDI is still highly concentrated. Manufacturing is still the first choice of foreign direct investment. In terms of regional choice, the eastern region still has the advantage of attracting foreign direct investment. Chapter four analyzes the mechanism of exchange rate change on FDI, including competition effect, wealth effect, sector effect and psychological expectation effect. The fifth chapter is the empirical part of the paper, through the stationary test and cointegration test (Cointegration test) from the overall perspective of the real exchange rate and China's FDI inflow specific correlation. Finally, this paper studies the influence of RMB appreciation trend on China's absorption of FDI. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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