【摘要】： 匯率是一個(gè)非常重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,它不僅關(guān)系到一國(guó)或地區(qū)在涉外經(jīng)濟(jì)中的發(fā)展和地位,而且也會(huì)通過(guò)對(duì)外貿(mào)易部門對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生傳遞作用。 2005年7月21日之前,我國(guó)實(shí)行的是盯住單一美元的匯率制度。隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷向前發(fā)展,迫于國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的壓力以及我國(guó)本身經(jīng)濟(jì)所處階段所提出的內(nèi)在要求,從2005年7月21日起,人民幣匯率不再盯住單一美元,改為參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié),形成了更富有彈性的匯率機(jī)制。“7?21”匯改以來(lái),較高的通脹水平也一度成為人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。那么匯改之后,人民幣匯率的波動(dòng)是否促進(jìn)了我國(guó)的通脹水平,如果通脹不是由人民幣升值所造成的,那么又是什么因素導(dǎo)致了我國(guó)物價(jià)的上漲呢? 本文從匯改后的實(shí)際背景出發(fā),以匯改之后的月度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證分析方法,研究了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)于我國(guó)通脹的影響。在對(duì)物價(jià)的分析過(guò)程中,首先分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)整體通脹的作用,之后對(duì)各分類物價(jià)的影響也作了較為深入的研究,以便初步了解匯率的通脹傳遞效應(yīng)機(jī)制,期望能夠?yàn)槲覈?guó)未來(lái)的匯率制度的運(yùn)行和改革提供一點(diǎn)啟示。同時(shí),為了進(jìn)一步分析通脹的形成原因,還探討了超額貨幣供給、進(jìn)口國(guó)外價(jià)格以及通脹預(yù)期對(duì)于我國(guó)通脹的作用。 在分析的過(guò)程中,主要采用了定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的研究方法,同時(shí)還運(yùn)用了圖表分析等方式。在運(yùn)用模型進(jìn)行回歸之前,對(duì)變量的外生性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),同時(shí)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性也進(jìn)行了考察,以使得回歸的結(jié)果更加可信和具有實(shí)際意義。研究結(jié)論表明,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)的通脹水平?jīng)]有直接的影響,我國(guó)的通脹多是由進(jìn)口國(guó)外通脹和人們對(duì)我國(guó)的通脹預(yù)期所致,這可能是由于人民幣匯率波動(dòng)幅度不明顯,進(jìn)口國(guó)外通脹和人們對(duì)我國(guó)通脹預(yù)期的作用過(guò)于明顯所致。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important economic variable, it is not only related to the development and status of a country or region in the foreign economy. Before July 21, 2005, China implemented a single dollar peg exchange rate system. With the continuous development of China's economy, under the pressure of the international market and the inherent requirements of the stage of our own economy, from July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. A more flexible exchange rate mechanism has been formed by adjusting against a basket of currencies. Since the reform of the "7x21" exchange rate, higher inflation has also been the focus of attention for a time. So after the exchange rate reform, does the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate promote the inflation level of our country, if inflation is not caused by RMB appreciation, then what factors cause the price rise of our country? Based on the actual background after the exchange rate reform and taking the monthly data of the exchange rate reform as the sample data, this paper studies the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on China's inflation by using the empirical analysis method. In the process of price analysis, this paper first analyzes the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on China's overall inflation, and then makes a more in-depth study on the effect of various categories of prices, in order to understand the mechanism of inflation transmission effect of exchange rate. It is expected to provide some enlightenment for the future operation and reform of China's exchange rate system. At the same time, in order to further analyze the causes of inflation, the paper also discusses the role of excess money supply, import foreign prices and inflation expectations on China's inflation. In the process of analysis, the research method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is mainly used, and the method of chart analysis is also used. In order to make the regression results more reliable and practical, the paper tests the extrapolation of variables and the stability of the data before using the model. The results show that the fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has no direct effect on the inflation level of our country. The inflation of our country is mostly caused by the inflation of imported countries and the inflation expectations of people in China. This may be due to the low volatility of the RMB exchange rate, the excessive role of imported foreign inflation and people's expectations of inflation in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5;F831.52;F224

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