【摘要】：在開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下,匯率作為重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,是聯(lián)系國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的紐帶和橋梁。一方面,匯率是決定對(duì)外貿(mào)易和國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的核心因素,直接影響著一國(guó)的國(guó)際收支狀況。另一方面,匯率又通過(guò)消費(fèi)、物價(jià)、貨幣供給等因素影響經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。目前,西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,而中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)卻伴隨著人民幣的不斷升值和國(guó)際收支帳戶的嚴(yán)重失衡,不改其持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。這給人民幣帶來(lái)了巨大的升值壓力。因此,探究人民幣匯率對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,回答國(guó)際輿論壓力,保持國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng),意義重大。 理論上,匯率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)密切相關(guān)。從國(guó)際收支的角度來(lái)看,通常認(rèn)為,貶值會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),升值會(huì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。因?yàn)橘H值會(huì)通過(guò)促進(jìn)出口、抑制進(jìn)口而擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易順差,貶值還有利于吸引外商直接投資,升值反之。而本文的實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn),人民幣匯率升值在短期內(nèi)會(huì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),但是長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)卻能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)因此出現(xiàn)衰退。而且,升值無(wú)法從根本上解決我國(guó)國(guó)際收支失衡的現(xiàn)狀。 基于實(shí)證研究結(jié)果,本文認(rèn)為央行不必過(guò)于擔(dān)心人民幣升值可能會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)造成抑制作用,同時(shí)也需要認(rèn)識(shí)到的是匯率政策扭對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)國(guó)際收支失衡現(xiàn)狀能起到的也許只是緩解作用。因此,我國(guó)的匯率政策應(yīng)在維穩(wěn)和逐漸放開(kāi)之間尋求一種平衡和過(guò)度,匯率政策目標(biāo)可以考慮向如下三個(gè)方面靠攏：放開(kāi)人民幣升值幅度,規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn),緩解國(guó)際收支失衡。同時(shí)也可以分階段、分步驟地實(shí)行以下匯率政策措施：一、促進(jìn)人民幣形成機(jī)制的市場(chǎng)化,擴(kuò)大浮動(dòng)區(qū)間；二、完善外匯市場(chǎng)和外匯管理體制,規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；三、逐步開(kāi)放資本帳戶,爭(zhēng)取實(shí)現(xiàn)人民幣在資本和金融項(xiàng)目下的可兌換。通過(guò)匯率政策的實(shí)施發(fā)揮匯率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)節(jié)作用,更好地促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of open economy, exchange rate, as an important macroeconomic variable, is the link and bridge between domestic and foreign economy. On the one hand, exchange rate is the core factor to determine foreign trade and international capital flow, which directly affects a country's balance of payments. On the other hand, the exchange rate affects economic growth through consumption, prices, money supply and other factors. At present, the western developed countries are in economic recession, while China's economy is accompanied by the continuous appreciation of the RMB and the serious imbalance in the balance of payments account, without changing its sustained and stable growth trend. This brings great pressure on the appreciation of RMB. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's economic growth, to answer the pressure of international public opinion and to maintain the steady growth of domestic economy. In theory, the exchange rate and economic growth are closely related. From the balance of payments point of view, it is generally believed that depreciation will promote economic growth, appreciation will suppress economic growth. Because the depreciation will expand the trade surplus by promoting exports, restraining imports, depreciation is also conducive to attracting foreign direct investment, appreciation vice versa. The empirical analysis of this paper finds that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will restrain economic growth in the short term, but it can promote economic growth in the long run. Moreover, appreciation can not fundamentally solve the current situation of China's balance of payments imbalance. Based on the empirical results, this paper argues that the central bank should not worry too much about the revaluation of the RMB, which may inhibit economic growth. It is also important to realize that the shift in exchange rate policy to the current balance of payments imbalance may only play a role in alleviating it. Therefore, China's exchange rate policy should seek a kind of balance and excess between maintaining stability and gradually liberalizing. The goal of exchange rate policy can be taken into consideration in the following three aspects: liberalizing the range of RMB appreciation, avoiding the exchange rate risk, and alleviating the imbalance of international balance of payments. At the same time, the following exchange rate policy measures can also be implemented in stages and steps: first, to promote the marketization of the RMB formation mechanism and to expand the floating range; second, to improve the foreign exchange market and foreign exchange management system to avoid exchange rate risks; and third, Gradually open the capital account and strive to achieve convertibility of RMB under capital and financial accounts. Through the implementation of exchange rate policy to play the role of exchange rate to adjust the economy, better promote China's economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F124

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