【摘要】：通貨膨脹慣性在通貨膨脹動(dòng)態(tài)機(jī)制研究中正受到越米越多的關(guān)注,目前普遍接受的一種觀點(diǎn)為：通貨膨脹慣性越高,貨幣政策的滯后過程一般也更長(zhǎng)。正是因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎洃T性直接影響著貨幣政策的調(diào)控效果,貨幣當(dāng)局只有深入理解和把握通貨膨脹在受到各種沖擊后的調(diào)整速度,才有可能制定和實(shí)施最優(yōu)的貨幣政策。另一方面,在影響貨幣政策實(shí)施效果的同時(shí),通貨膨脹慣性本身也受到各種宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的影響。通過觀察通貨膨脹慣性系數(shù)與通脹率、通脹預(yù)期和M1增長(zhǎng)率之間的關(guān)系,能夠明顯看出這幾個(gè)變量序列的波動(dòng)有著近乎同步的趨勢(shì)。那么,我國(guó)的通貨膨脹慣性到底處于什么樣的水平?哪些因素影響著我國(guó)的通貨膨脹慣性?影響通貨膨脹慣性的這些因素分別對(duì)通脹慣性起到多大的推動(dòng)作用?這些因素各自對(duì)通貨膨脹慣性作用的反應(yīng)快慢、持續(xù)時(shí)間又是怎樣?我國(guó)的通貨膨脹慣性動(dòng)態(tài)特征對(duì)制定前瞻性的貨幣政策決策和實(shí)施有效的貨幣政策有什么樣的借鑒意義?帶著這一系列疑問,本文以通貨膨脹慣性系數(shù)的估計(jì)為起點(diǎn)研究了其與通脹水平、通脹預(yù)期和貨幣政策之間的影響關(guān)系,不僅包含理論分析,也進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。本文先是回顧并歸納已有的相關(guān)研究,分析了我國(guó)通貨膨脹慣性的研究現(xiàn)狀。闡述了通脹慣性的含義和特征,在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過一定理論分析,嘗試著論述通脹慣性受到通脹水平、通脹預(yù)期和貨幣政策影響的機(jī)制。為了驗(yàn)證它們之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,本文又進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),先是應(yīng)用狀態(tài)空間變參數(shù)模型動(dòng)態(tài)的估計(jì)了我國(guó)通貨膨脹慣性系數(shù),其次,采用VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解等手段來(lái)分析我國(guó)通貨膨脹慣性的影響機(jī)制和動(dòng)態(tài)特征。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,首先,我國(guó)的通脹慣性水平一直較高；其次,通脹慣性受到通脹水平、通脹預(yù)期和貨幣政策的影響和沖擊,且這三者對(duì)通脹慣性影響的大小、反應(yīng)快慢、持續(xù)時(shí)間各有不同。具體來(lái)講,通脹率對(duì)當(dāng)期通貨膨脹慣性的影響最大,通脹預(yù)期和貨幣政策對(duì)通脹慣性的影響存在一定滯后性,它們對(duì)當(dāng)期通脹慣性影響相對(duì)較小但是對(duì)后期的影響不容小視。在以上分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國(guó)的通脹水平和通貨膨脹動(dòng)態(tài)機(jī)制的現(xiàn)狀,本文提出了一些相關(guān)的政策建議,希望能對(duì)該領(lǐng)域的研究及通貨膨脹調(diào)控政策的制定和實(shí)施有所貢獻(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Inflation inertia is receiving more and more attention in the study of inflation dynamic mechanism. At present, it is generally accepted that the higher the inflation inertia is, the longer the lagging process of monetary policy is. It is precisely because inflation inertia directly affects the effect of monetary policy regulation that monetary authorities can formulate and implement the optimal monetary policy only by deeply understanding and grasping the adjustment speed of inflation after all kinds of shocks. On the other hand, inflation inertia itself is influenced by various macroeconomic factors while affecting the effect of monetary policy. By observing the relationship between the number of inertial system of inflation and inflation rate, inflation expectation and M1 growth rate, it is obvious that the fluctuation of these variables has a nearly synchronous trend. So, what is the level of inflation inertia in China? What factors affect China's inflation inertia? These factors that affect the inertia of inflation play an important role in promoting the inertia of inflation. How quickly and slowly do these factors react to the inertia of inflation, and what is the duration? What is the significance of the dynamic characteristics of inflation inertia in formulating forward-looking monetary policy decisions and implementing effective monetary policies? With this series of questions, this paper takes the estimation of inertia coefficient of inflation as the starting point to study the relationship between inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy, including not only theoretical analysis, but also empirical test. This paper first reviews and summarizes the related studies, and analyzes the current situation of inflation inertia research in China. This paper expounds the meaning and characteristics of inflation inertia, and tries to discuss the mechanism of inflation inertia influenced by inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy through certain theoretical analysis. In order to verify the interaction between them, this paper makes an empirical test. First, we use the state-space variable parameter model to dynamically estimate the inertia coefficient of inflation in China. Secondly, we use the VAR model to estimate the inertia coefficient of inflation in China. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence mechanism and dynamic characteristics of inflation inertia in China. The results show that, firstly, the inflation inertia level in China is always high; secondly, inflation inertia is affected and impacted by inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy, and these three factors react quickly to the influence of inflation inertia. The duration varies. Specifically, inflation has the greatest influence on the current inflation inertia, and inflation expectations and monetary policy have a certain lag effect on inflation inertia, they have relatively little impact on the current inflation inertia, but the impact on the later period should not be underestimated. On the basis of the above analysis, combined with the current situation of inflation level and inflation dynamic mechanism in China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions, hoping to contribute to the research in this field and the formulation and implementation of inflation control policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5;F822.0

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前1條

1 李敏;王相寧;繆柏其;;我國(guó)通貨膨脹率的動(dòng)態(tài)波動(dòng)機(jī)制及政策啟示[A];第十屆中國(guó)管理科學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集[C];2008年

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本文編號(hào)：2214263