匯率變動對浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口貿(mào)易的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-23 12:42
【摘要】：浙江省地處中國東部沿海地區(qū)，有著豐富的地理資源，趁著改革開放的東風，大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅速。但中國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品在國際上沒有定價權，競爭力較弱，因此匯率變動對大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響就變得至關重要了。 自2005年7月21日，人民幣匯率調整成浮動匯率制度后，人民幣就持續(xù)升值，直接影響了國際貿(mào)易收支，浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口貿(mào)易開始出現(xiàn)逆差，并逐年擴大。匯率變動通過大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口價格變化、企業(yè)利潤變化、升值預期等途徑來影響大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口貿(mào)易。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟學理論，人民幣匯率升值會減少大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口而增加進口，浙江農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)企業(yè)可以借由人民幣匯率升值契機大力引進農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)專利和高科技生產(chǎn)設備，不僅有效提升企業(yè)實力促進國內農(nóng)業(yè)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，還能使我國在國際大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品交易市場上具有一定價格控制權。 本文基于國際經(jīng)濟學、國際貿(mào)易理論和計量經(jīng)濟學的相關理論，并借鑒了國內外學者的相關文獻，通過五個章節(jié)進行系統(tǒng)分析匯率變動對浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口貿(mào)易的影響。數(shù)據(jù)選用2005年到2012年浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口的季度數(shù)據(jù)進行建模分析，又分別對主要進口品種大豆、原棉和食用植物油進行實證分析。 實證結果表明，人民幣實際有效匯率對浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口貿(mào)易是一個顯著影響的因素，但是當期人民幣實際有效匯率對進口是呈現(xiàn)負效應，存在J曲線效應，即人民幣實際有效匯率變動不會立即影響浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的進口，，而是在滯后半年開始促進進口；人民幣實際有效匯率對原棉進口的影響最顯著，第二是大豆的進口，而對植物油的進口效應不確定。主要原因是食用油籽與植物油能相互替代，選擇進口食用油籽比選擇直接進口植物油更加具有經(jīng)濟效益。 最后基于人民幣匯率升值預期下對政府和企業(yè)提出了如何有效促進浙江大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口貿(mào)易，借此進一步促進農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易，加快國內農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的相關政策建議。政府應該鼓勵進口帶動出口，重點扶持大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工企業(yè)，加大財稅政策支持力度幫助企業(yè)降低生產(chǎn)成本。企業(yè)也應該注重自身轉型升級，利用金融工具有效規(guī)避匯率風險。
[Abstract]:Zhejiang Province is located in the eastern coastal area of China, with abundant geographical resources, while the east wind of reform and opening up, the import and export trade of bulk agricultural products develops rapidly. But China's agricultural commodities have no international pricing power and are less competitive, so the impact of currency movements on agricultural commodities trade has become crucial. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted to the floating exchange rate system, the RMB has continuously appreciated, which has directly affected the international trade balance. The import and export trade deficit of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products began to appear, and expanded year by year. Exchange rate changes affect the import trade of bulk agricultural products by means of changes in import prices of bulk agricultural products, changes in corporate profits and expectations of appreciation. According to economic theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the export of large agricultural products and increase imports. Zhejiang agricultural production enterprises can make use of the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation to vigorously introduce agricultural products production patents and high-tech production equipment. It not only effectively promotes the strength of enterprises to promote the stable development of domestic agriculture, but also enables our country to have certain price control rights in the international market of bulk agricultural products. Based on the relevant theories of international economics, international trade and econometrics, and drawing on the relevant literature of scholars at home and abroad, this paper systematically analyzes the influence of exchange rate changes on the import trade of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products through five chapters. The data were modeled from 2005 to 2012, and the main imported varieties of soybean, raw cotton and edible vegetable oil were analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is a significant influence factor on the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, but the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the current period has a negative effect on imports, and there exists a J-curve effect. That is, the change in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will not immediately affect the import of large agricultural products in Zhejiang, but will start to promote imports within half a year. The real effective exchange rate of the RMB has the most significant impact on the import of raw cotton, and the second is the import of soybeans. The import effect of vegetable oil is uncertain. The main reason is that edible oil seeds and vegetable oils can be replaced each other. It is more economical to choose imported edible oil seeds than to choose vegetable oils directly. Finally, based on the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to effectively promote the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, so as to further promote the export trade of agricultural products and accelerate the development of domestic agriculture. The government should encourage imports to promote exports, focus on supporting large agricultural products processing enterprises, and increase fiscal and tax policy support to help enterprises reduce production costs. Enterprises should also pay attention to their own transformation and upgrading, using financial instruments to effectively avoid exchange rate risk.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.61;F323.7;F832.6
本文編號：2199114
[Abstract]:Zhejiang Province is located in the eastern coastal area of China, with abundant geographical resources, while the east wind of reform and opening up, the import and export trade of bulk agricultural products develops rapidly. But China's agricultural commodities have no international pricing power and are less competitive, so the impact of currency movements on agricultural commodities trade has become crucial. Since July 21, 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted to the floating exchange rate system, the RMB has continuously appreciated, which has directly affected the international trade balance. The import and export trade deficit of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products began to appear, and expanded year by year. Exchange rate changes affect the import trade of bulk agricultural products by means of changes in import prices of bulk agricultural products, changes in corporate profits and expectations of appreciation. According to economic theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will reduce the export of large agricultural products and increase imports. Zhejiang agricultural production enterprises can make use of the opportunity of RMB exchange rate appreciation to vigorously introduce agricultural products production patents and high-tech production equipment. It not only effectively promotes the strength of enterprises to promote the stable development of domestic agriculture, but also enables our country to have certain price control rights in the international market of bulk agricultural products. Based on the relevant theories of international economics, international trade and econometrics, and drawing on the relevant literature of scholars at home and abroad, this paper systematically analyzes the influence of exchange rate changes on the import trade of Zhejiang bulk agricultural products through five chapters. The data were modeled from 2005 to 2012, and the main imported varieties of soybean, raw cotton and edible vegetable oil were analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is a significant influence factor on the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, but the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the current period has a negative effect on imports, and there exists a J-curve effect. That is, the change in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will not immediately affect the import of large agricultural products in Zhejiang, but will start to promote imports within half a year. The real effective exchange rate of the RMB has the most significant impact on the import of raw cotton, and the second is the import of soybeans. The import effect of vegetable oil is uncertain. The main reason is that edible oil seeds and vegetable oils can be replaced each other. It is more economical to choose imported edible oil seeds than to choose vegetable oils directly. Finally, based on the expectation of RMB exchange rate appreciation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to effectively promote the import trade of large agricultural products in Zhejiang Province, so as to further promote the export trade of agricultural products and accelerate the development of domestic agriculture. The government should encourage imports to promote exports, focus on supporting large agricultural products processing enterprises, and increase fiscal and tax policy support to help enterprises reduce production costs. Enterprises should also pay attention to their own transformation and upgrading, using financial instruments to effectively avoid exchange rate risk.
【學位授予單位】：寧波大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.61;F323.7;F832.6
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