【摘要】：東盟新四國(以下簡稱新四國)是指東南亞十國中最后加入東盟的四個新成員國,即柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸和越南,亦稱CLMV國家。其中,柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸屬世界最不發(fā)達國家。由于歷史原因,特別是政治局勢長期動蕩的影響,新四國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平低,基礎設施滯后,在吸引外國直接投資方面一直處于不利地位。近年來,隨著美國“重返東南亞”戰(zhàn)略的推進和印度“東向政策”的實施,新四國以其重要的地緣政治、逐漸開放的經(jīng)濟政策、豐富的自然資源、廉價的勞動力日益受到國際資本的關(guān)注,成為各大國角逐的焦點區(qū)域。 隨著中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建設進程的加快和大湄公河次區(qū)域合作等的推進,我國與新四國的交往日益頻繁,經(jīng)濟合作快速推進,新四國在我國對外直接投資和對東盟直接投資中的地位日益提高,我國成為新四國最重要的直接投資來源國之一。就我國而言,無論是具有較強競爭優(yōu)勢的大型中央企業(yè),還是不具備所有權(quán)優(yōu)勢和內(nèi)部化優(yōu)勢但卻擁有為小規(guī)模市場服務能力和小規(guī)模生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的中小企業(yè),都能在新四國找到自己發(fā)展的“廣闊天地”。我國對新四國的直接投資,在獲取國內(nèi)稀缺戰(zhàn)略資源、轉(zhuǎn)移過剩產(chǎn)能、開拓境外市場、確保國家經(jīng)濟安全、西南邊疆安全等方面,發(fā)揮了積極的作用。進一步加強對新四國的直接投資,既符合企業(yè)經(jīng)濟利益,也關(guān)乎我國的國家戰(zhàn)略。 本文采用理論分析與實際分析相結(jié)合、歷史分析和現(xiàn)狀分析相結(jié)合、國際關(guān)系分析與計量分析相結(jié)合的方法,對新四國引進外資的發(fā)展歷程和中國對新四國直接投資的發(fā)展歷程進行了總結(jié)回顧,對新四國直接投資的現(xiàn)狀和特點進行了歸納總結(jié),就中國對新四國和老六國直接投資的特點和績效進行了比較研究,就影響中國對新四國直接投資的推動因素和風險因素進行了全面分析,并在此基礎上提出了有針對性的政策建議。這對于細化東盟問題的研究對象,驗證發(fā)展中國家對外直接投資理論在高風險國家的適用性,補充和豐富現(xiàn)有的研究成果,具有重要的理論意義；同時,本研究不僅有助于客觀而深入地認識我國與新四國的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系,正確處理雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系中的矛盾和摩擦,推動雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系進一步發(fā)展,而且能為我國企業(yè)特別是中小企業(yè)開拓新四國市場提供具體的幫助,為各級政府制定和調(diào)整對外投資政策、實施走出去戰(zhàn)略提供有益的參考,具有較強的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文的研究內(nèi)容主要圍繞以下幾方面展開：是對外直接投資理論綜述。通過系統(tǒng)地梳理國際直接投資基本理論,依次對馬克思主義資本輸出理論、發(fā)達國家國際直接投資理論、發(fā)展中國家國際直接投資理論以及20世紀90年代以來國際直接投資理論的新發(fā)展進行了歸納、介紹和評價。 二是中國對新四國直接投資的發(fā)展。首先,回顧了新四國的引資進程,分析了各國引進外國直接投資的來源國分布和產(chǎn)業(yè)分布；其次,總結(jié)回顧了中國對新四國直接投資的發(fā)展歷程和現(xiàn)狀,歸納了中國對新四國直接投資的特點。 三是中國對新四國直接投資的推動因素分析。首先,基于投資國的宏觀戰(zhàn)略,分析了中國對新四國直接投資的必然性；其次,基于跨國企業(yè)的比較優(yōu)勢,分析了中國對新四國直接投資的可行性；再次,基于雙邊關(guān)系的推動因素,分析了中國對新四國直接投資快速發(fā)展的有利基礎；最后,基于東道國的投資環(huán)境,分析了中國對新四國直接投資發(fā)展的區(qū)位優(yōu)勢。 四是中國對新四國直接投資的績效分析。通過指標選取、模型構(gòu)建、實證檢驗和結(jié)果分析,重點研究了中國對新四國直接投資績效中的貿(mào)易效應,并與中國對東盟老六國的投資績效進行了比較分析。 五是中國對新四國直接投資的風險分析。分別從東道國政治風險、經(jīng)濟風險、經(jīng)營風險三個方面,分析了中國對新四國直接投資中存在的風險因素。 六是推動中國企業(yè)對新四國直接投資的對策和措施。首先,從加強政策引導、強化政策服務、深化雙邊合作三個方面,就政府層面的宏觀政策措施提出了具體建議；其次,從目標定位、產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇、進入模式、風險防范四個方面,就企業(yè)進一步加大對新四國的直接投資提出了具體建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新性研究主要體現(xiàn)在三個方面： 第一,研究視角創(chuàng)新。迄今為止,國內(nèi)學術(shù)界對我國對東盟的直接投資大都把東盟十國作為一個整體來研究。鑒于東盟各國在政治體制、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會文化等方面存在巨大差異,本文根據(jù)東盟新四國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的相似性、與中國在歷史地理政治經(jīng)濟上的密切關(guān)系、中國對東盟新四國直接投資所具備的親緣優(yōu)勢、地緣優(yōu)勢等因素,將新四國放在一個次區(qū)域內(nèi)進行研究。 第二,建立了“投資國-東道國-雙邊關(guān)系-企業(yè)”四位一體的對外直接投資推動因素分析框架,強調(diào)雙邊政治關(guān)系中政治互信與雙邊經(jīng)濟關(guān)系中對外援助、對外承包工程等子因素對對外直接投資的推動作用。提出在對類似東盟新四國的高風險國家直接投資中,雙邊經(jīng)濟關(guān)系是中國企業(yè)對外直接投資的基礎,雙邊政治關(guān)系是中國企業(yè)對外直接投資的保障。 第三,通過實證對比研究中國對東盟新四國、老六國的直接投資績效,提出中國對兩類國家的直接投資都是貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造型投資,對新四國直接投資的進出口創(chuàng)造效應均高于對老六國的直接投資。 本文主要存在以下兩方面不足之處：首先,新四國均屬最不發(fā)達國家,信息化水平低,受世界關(guān)注的程度不高,文獻資料匱乏,一些研究數(shù)據(jù)的采集比較困難,在很大程度上影響了本文對某些問題的深入分析。其次,因篇幅所限,本文對中國對新四國直接投資的典型案例和重要地區(qū)投資主體(如云南、廣西)沒有進一步展開深入的分析。對此,筆者將在以后的研究中加以改進和完善。
[Abstract]:The new four countries of ASEAN (hereinafter referred to as the new four countries) refer to the four new ASEAN member countries of the ten Southeast Asian countries, namely Kampuchea, Laos, Burma and Vietnam, also known as the CLMV countries. Among them, Kampuchea, Laos and Burma are the world's least developed countries. For historical reasons, they are the influence of the political situation for a long time, and the economic development of the new four countries. In recent years, with the promotion of the "return to Southeast Asia" strategy and the implementation of the "East Policy" of India, the new four countries, with their important geopolitics, gradually open economic policies, rich natural resources and cheap labor force in recent years. The focus of interregional capital has become the focus of competition among major powers.
With the acceleration of the construction process of China ASEAN Free Trade Area and the promotion of the Greater Mekong Subregion Cooperation, our country and the new four countries have become more and more frequent, and the economic cooperation is advancing rapidly. The new four countries have increased their position in the direct investment of China and the direct investment in ASEAN. China has become the most important direct investment in the new four countries. One of the source countries, as far as China is concerned, whether a large central enterprise with a strong competitive advantage, or a small and medium-sized enterprise with a small market service and small scale production technology, can find a "broad space" for its own development in the new four countries. Investment has played an active role in obtaining domestic scarce strategic resources, transferring excess capacity, opening up foreign markets, ensuring national economic security and the security of the southwest frontier. Further strengthening direct investment to the new four countries is in line with the economic interests of the enterprises and the national strategy of our country.
In this paper, a combination of theoretical analysis and practical analysis, a combination of historical analysis and current situation analysis, and a combination of international relations analysis and measurement analysis, the development course of the new four countries' introduction of foreign capital and the development process of China's direct investment in the new four countries are reviewed, and the status and characteristics of the new four countries' direct investment are carried out. This paper makes a comparative study on the characteristics and performance of China's direct investment in the new four countries and the old six countries, and makes a comprehensive analysis of the factors and risk factors affecting China's direct investment in the new four countries, and puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions on this basis. The applicability of the theory of Chinese foreign direct investment in high risk countries, supplementing and enriching existing research results, is of great theoretical significance. At the same time, this study not only helps to understand the economic and trade relations between China and the new four countries objectively and deeply, and correctly deal with the contradictions and frictions in bilateral economic and trade relations, and promote bilateral economic and trade relations. It is of great practical significance to provide useful reference for governments at all levels to formulate and adjust foreign investment policies and to implement the strategy of going out.
This paper focuses on the following aspects: a summary of the theory of foreign direct investment. Through a systematic review of the basic theories of international direct investment, the theory of Marx's capital output, the theory of international direct investment in developed countries, the international direct investment theory of developing countries, and the international direct investment since 1990s The new development of investment theory is summarized, introduced and evaluated.
The two is the development of China's direct investment to the new four countries. First, it reviews the process of introducing capital in the new four countries, analyzes the distribution and industrial distribution of the source countries of countries introducing foreign direct investment. Secondly, it summarizes the development process and present situation of China's direct investment in the new four countries, and summarizes the characteristics of China's direct investment to the new four countries.
The three is the analysis of China's impetus to the direct investment of the new four countries. First, based on the macro strategy of the investment countries, the inevitability of China's direct investment to the new four countries is analyzed. Secondly, based on the comparative advantages of the multinational enterprises, the feasibility of China's direct investment to the new four countries is analyzed. The country has a favorable basis for the rapid development of the new four countries' direct investment, and finally, based on the investment environment of the host country, the regional advantages of China's direct investment in the new four countries are analyzed.
The four is the performance analysis of China's direct investment in the new four countries. Through the index selection, model construction, empirical test and result analysis, the trade effect of China's direct investment performance on the new four countries is focused on, and the investment performance of the old six countries in ASEAN is compared with China.
The five is the risk analysis of China's direct investment in the new four countries. From the three aspects of the host country's political risk, economic risk and business risk, the risk factors of China's direct investment in the new four countries are analyzed.
The six is the countermeasures and measures to promote the direct investment of Chinese enterprises to the new four countries. First, from the three aspects of strengthening policy guidance, strengthening policy service and deepening bilateral cooperation, we put forward specific suggestions on macro policy measures at the level of government. Secondly, from the target orientation, industry selection, entry mode and risk prevention in four aspects, the enterprise is further developed. Specific proposals were put forward to increase direct investment in the new four countries.
The innovative research of this paper is mainly embodied in three aspects:
First, research perspective innovation. So far, most of China's direct investment in China to ASEAN has been studied by the ten countries of ASEAN as a whole. In view of the great differences in the political system, economic development, social culture and other aspects of ASEAN countries, this article is based on the similarity of the economic development level of the new ASEAN countries and China in the history. The close relationship between geography, politics and economy, the relative advantages and geographical advantages of China's direct investment in the new four countries of ASEAN, and so on, put the new four countries in a subregion to study.
Second, we set up a framework for the factor analysis of foreign direct investment in the "investment country - the host country - bilateral relationship - enterprise", emphasizing the role of the sub factors such as the political mutual trust and bilateral economic relations in bilateral political relations, the foreign contracting projects and other sub factors on foreign direct investment. In the direct investment of high risk countries, bilateral economic relations are the basis of the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises, and bilateral political relations are the guarantee of the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises.
Third, through a comparative study of the direct investment performance of China to the new Four ASEAN countries and the old six countries, the direct investment of China to the two types of countries is a trade creation investment, and the creative effect on the import and export of the direct investment of the new four countries is higher than the direct investment to the old six countries.
This article mainly exists the following two shortcomings: first, the new four countries belong to the least developed countries, the level of information is low, the degree of attention to the world is not high, the literature is scarce and the collection of some research data is difficult, which greatly affects the in-depth analysis of some questions in this paper. Secondly, the text is limited to the length of this article. The typical cases of direct investment in the new four countries and the investment subjects in important areas (such as Yunnan, Guangxi) have not been further analyzed. The author will improve and improve it in the future research.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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