本文選題：美元弱勢(shì)調(diào)整 + 出口技術(shù)水平　； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：針對(duì)美元弱勢(shì)調(diào)整背景下中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系這一問(wèn)題,本文認(rèn)為研究匯率變化對(duì)出口技術(shù)水平的影響比研究其對(duì)出口貿(mào)易量的影響更有理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。為此,本文綜合運(yùn)用比較分析、計(jì)量分析等方法,對(duì)這一問(wèn)題進(jìn)行全面研究,不僅從理論上論證了匯率對(duì)出口技術(shù)水平影響的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,并分別運(yùn)用常系數(shù)模型和變系數(shù)模型分析了匯率對(duì)中國(guó)總出口技術(shù)水平和各區(qū)域出口技術(shù)水平的影響,并為影響機(jī)制的理論分析提供了經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)。第一,對(duì)中國(guó)省級(jí)出口技術(shù)水平進(jìn)行測(cè)算,并在此基礎(chǔ)上將出口產(chǎn)品劃分為高中低三類,進(jìn)而從時(shí)間、區(qū)域、省份和產(chǎn)品四個(gè)維度對(duì)中國(guó)省級(jí)出口技術(shù)水平進(jìn)行橫向和縱向比較分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),雖然中國(guó)總的出口技術(shù)水平逐年提高,但區(qū)域出口技術(shù)水平存在較大差異,并且差異有不斷擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì)。第二,從理論上探討了匯率對(duì)出口技術(shù)水平的影響機(jī)制。從生產(chǎn)成本角度看,本幣升值可以降低進(jìn)口投入品的利用成本,從而有利于較多利用進(jìn)口投入品的高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品。從市場(chǎng)定價(jià)角度看,高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口價(jià)格匯率彈性大,廠商可以提高價(jià)格來(lái)抵消成本上升的影響。從匯率彈性角度看,高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口需求價(jià)格彈性小而出口供給價(jià)格彈性大,受匯率升值影響小。第三,采用2002-2008年省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)運(yùn)用固定效應(yīng)模型進(jìn)行常系數(shù)估計(jì)以研究美元弱勢(shì)調(diào)整對(duì)中國(guó)總出口技術(shù)水平的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),美元弱勢(shì)調(diào)整會(huì)顯著促進(jìn)中國(guó)出口技術(shù)水平的提升。此外,物質(zhì)資本、人力資本、技術(shù)水平和匯改也有積極影響,FDI對(duì)中國(guó)總出口技術(shù)水平的影響為正但并不顯著。第四,考慮到中國(guó)區(qū)域發(fā)展的不平衡性,進(jìn)一步運(yùn)用空間地理模型進(jìn)行變系數(shù)估計(jì)以探究美元弱勢(shì)調(diào)整對(duì)中國(guó)不同省市出口技術(shù)水平的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),匯率、物質(zhì)資本、人力資本和匯改均具有顯著的空間變異性,而技術(shù)水平和FDI的空間變異性相對(duì)較小。其中,匯率、物質(zhì)資本和匯改對(duì)東部地區(qū)的作用要小于中西部地區(qū)；人力資本對(duì)東部地區(qū)的作用要大于中西部地區(qū)。第五,總結(jié)研究結(jié)論并提出相應(yīng)政策建議。面對(duì)區(qū)域技術(shù)水平差距不斷擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì),應(yīng)加大中西部開發(fā)力度,包括基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和人才支持等。在美元弱勢(shì)調(diào)整的大背景下,將貿(mào)易重心由低技術(shù)產(chǎn)品轉(zhuǎn)向高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品,同時(shí)完善人民幣匯率的市場(chǎng)化形成機(jī)制,增加匯率靈活性。此外,應(yīng)引導(dǎo)民營(yíng)資本投資,大力發(fā)展教育和科研事業(yè),促進(jìn)物質(zhì)資本和人力資本的積累以及技術(shù)水平的提升。
[Abstract]:In view of the problem of Sino-US trade relations under the background of weak adjustment of US dollar, this paper holds that it is more theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of exchange rate change on export technical level than to study its influence on export trade volume. Therefore, this paper makes a comprehensive study of this problem by means of comparative analysis and econometric analysis, which not only demonstrates theoretically the transmission mechanism of the influence of exchange rate on export technology level. The influence of exchange rate on Chinese total export technology level and regional export technology level is analyzed by using constant coefficient model and variable coefficient model respectively. The empirical evidence is provided for the theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism. First, the technical level of China's export at the provincial level is measured, and on this basis, the export products are divided into three categories, high, middle and low, and then from time to time and region. The horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of Chinese provincial export technology level is carried out in four dimensions of provinces and products. It is found that although the total export technology level of China is increasing year by year, there are great differences in the regional export technology level, and the differences have a tendency to expand. Secondly, the influence mechanism of exchange rate on export technology level is discussed theoretically. From the point of view of production cost, the appreciation of local currency can reduce the utilization cost of imported inputs, which is beneficial to the high technology products which make more use of imported inputs. From the market pricing point of view, high-tech products export price flexibility, manufacturers can raise prices to offset the impact of rising costs. From the point of view of exchange rate elasticity, the price elasticity of export demand of high-tech products is small, and the price elasticity of export supply is large, which is little affected by exchange rate appreciation. Thirdly, we use the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2008 to estimate the constant coefficients by using the fixed effect model to study the impact of the weak adjustment of the US dollar on the technical level of China's total export. The study found that the weak dollar adjustment will significantly promote China's export technology level. In addition, material capital, human capital, technological level and exchange rate reform also have a positive impact on China's total export technology level, but not significant. Fourth, considering the imbalance of regional development in China, we further use the spatial geographical model to estimate the variable coefficients to explore the impact of the weak adjustment of US dollar on the export technology level of different provinces and cities in China. It is found that the exchange rate, material capital, human capital and exchange rate reform have significant spatial variability, while the technological level and the spatial variability of FDI are relatively small. The effect of exchange rate, material capital and exchange rate reform on the eastern region is smaller than that of the central and western regions, and the effect of human capital on the eastern region is greater than that of the central and western region. Fifth, summarize the research conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. In the face of the increasing gap of regional technical level, we should strengthen the development of the central and western regions, including infrastructure construction and talent support. Under the background of the weak adjustment of the US dollar, the focus of trade should be shifted from low-technology products to high-tech products, and at the same time, the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate should be improved and the exchange rate flexibility should be increased. In addition, we should guide private capital investment, vigorously develop education and scientific research, promote the accumulation of material capital and human capital and raise the level of technology.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F837.12
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本文編號(hào)：2117618