本文選題：觀念 + 美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策��； 參考：《外交學(xué)院》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：本文討論的主要問(wèn)題是思想觀念對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策決策的影響。一般來(lái)說(shuō),對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策決策的研究主要是從現(xiàn)實(shí)利益角度來(lái)考察的。但是,通過(guò)對(duì)選取的美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策決策案例的觀察與分析,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)決策并不必然建立在現(xiàn)實(shí)利益的基礎(chǔ)上。而界定現(xiàn)實(shí)利益的觀念對(duì)決策者有決定性的影響。本文以美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策的兩次重大變化為案例來(lái)分析觀念對(duì)決策的影響。第一個(gè)案例是美國(guó)二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束前夕,管理干預(yù)思想觀念對(duì)布雷頓森林體系設(shè)計(jì)的影響。當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)和國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)地位與一戰(zhàn)后情況相似。一戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)的政策選擇是積極恢復(fù)自由放任的金本位,而二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束前夕美國(guó)卻選擇建立管理干預(yù)的國(guó)際貨幣體系。第二個(gè)案例是70年代自由放任思想觀念對(duì)美國(guó)關(guān)閉黃金窗口轉(zhuǎn)向浮動(dòng)匯率的影響�？夏岬稀⒓s翰遜時(shí)期和尼克松時(shí)期都面臨著嚴(yán)重的國(guó)際收支問(wèn)題。在這種情況下,他們都可以選擇放棄黃金兌換轉(zhuǎn)向浮動(dòng)匯率,也都可以通過(guò)美國(guó)在國(guó)際體系中的主導(dǎo)地位繼續(xù)維系布雷頓森林體系。但是,由于觀念的不同,肯尼迪、約翰遜時(shí)期選擇維系管理干預(yù)的布雷頓森林體系,而尼克松時(shí)期選擇了轉(zhuǎn)向浮動(dòng)匯率。通過(guò)這兩個(gè)案例,我們可以看到現(xiàn)實(shí)利益并不必然決定美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策的決策結(jié)果,思想觀念對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣政策中的反�，F(xiàn)象具有解釋力。本文建立了觀念影響決策的流程和機(jī)制。經(jīng)濟(jì)思想觀念主要通過(guò)三個(gè)路徑傳播進(jìn)入決策層,它們是社會(huì)思潮與大眾媒體傳播、認(rèn)知共同體的推動(dòng)和政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的推動(dòng)。在案例分析中可以看到這三個(gè)路徑都不同程度地起到了觀念傳播的作用。本文討論了決策層觀念的過(guò)濾作用,即決策層對(duì)政策的選擇取決于其是否對(duì)供選擇政策及其代表的觀念的認(rèn)同與接受。決策層觀念過(guò)濾網(wǎng)的形成取決于決策層不同部門(mén)機(jī)構(gòu)或決策者觀念的博弈,博弈的結(jié)果取決于決策層的權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)和關(guān)系結(jié)構(gòu)。當(dāng)決策層對(duì)某一觀念認(rèn)同感強(qiáng)且各機(jī)構(gòu)部門(mén)的觀念統(tǒng)一,則代表該觀念的政策得以被選擇并且決策實(shí)施比較穩(wěn)定;當(dāng)決策層對(duì)某一觀念的態(tài)度不明確且各機(jī)構(gòu)部門(mén)觀念不統(tǒng)一,則決策會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)和反復(fù)。這兩點(diǎn)在案例的分析中都得到了體現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:The main problem discussed in this paper is the influence of ideas on the international monetary policy decisions of the United States. Generally speaking, the research of American international monetary policy decision is mainly from the angle of realistic interest. However, through the observation and analysis of the selected cases of international monetary policy decision in the United States, this paper finds that the decision is not necessarily based on the actual interests. The concept of defining realistic interests has a decisive impact on decision-makers. This paper takes two major changes in American international monetary policy as an example to analyze the influence of ideas on decision-making. The first case is the influence of the idea of management intervention on the design of Bretton Woods system on the eve of the end of World War II. The domestic and international economic status of the United States was similar to that of the first World War. After World War I, the policy choice of the United States was to actively restore the laissez-faire gold standard, but before the end of World War II, the United States chose to establish an international monetary system to manage its intervention. The second case is the effect of laissez-faire ideas on the US closing the gold window to floating exchange rates in the 1970s. Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon all faced serious balance-of-payments problems. In this case, they can either abandon gold exchange and switch to floating exchange rates, or they can continue to maintain the Bretton Woods system through the United States' dominance of the international system. However, because of different ideas, Kennedy and Johnson chose to maintain the Bretton Woods system of management intervention, while Nixon chose to switch to floating exchange rate. Through these two cases, we can see that the actual interests do not necessarily determine the decision results of the United States international monetary policy, and the ideas have an explanatory power to explain the abnormal phenomena in the international monetary policy of the United States. This paper establishes the process and mechanism of concept influencing decision-making. The economic thoughts and ideas are mainly propagated into the decision-making level through three paths. They are the promotion of social thoughts and mass media, the promotion of cognitive community and the promotion of government economists. In the case study, we can see that these three paths have played a role in the dissemination of ideas to varying degrees. This paper discusses the filtering function of the decision level concept, that is, the decision making layer's choice of policy depends on whether it agrees with and accepts the alternative policy and the concept it represents. The formation of the decision level concept filter depends on the game of the different department organization or the decision maker idea, and the result of the game depends on the power structure and the relation structure of the decision level. When the decision-making level has a strong sense of identity to a certain idea and the concept of the various agencies and departments is unified, then the policy representing that idea is chosen and the decision-making process is relatively stable; when the decision-making level is not clear about a certain idea and the concept of the various agencies and departments is not unified, The decision will fluctuate and repeat. These two points are reflected in the case analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：外交學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F827.12

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